BoB: AMPHAN - Post-Tropical

[Abdullah]

12z SHIPS FWIW suggests this may be peaking sooner than I thought yesterday.

IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 0, 120N, 864E, 75, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 12, 131N, 865E, 85, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 24, 143N, 866E, 84, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 36, 158N, 870E, 84, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 48, 176N, 875E, 74, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 60, 199N, 882E, 58, 0, TS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 72, 221N, 889E, 48, 0, TS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 84, 236N, 892E, 28, 0, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

The initialization for 12Z SHIPS was made when the best track was giving us a medium category 1 hurricane. I want to see what their next model run looks like (with the updated best track).

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 125 kt right now (pressure 941 mb). It's clear this is explosively intensifying, but there is definitely a lag. This could very well end up the strongest storm ever in the Indian Ocean basin. If only we had Recon...

[Yellow Evan]

12z SHIPS FWIW suggests this may be peaking sooner than I thought yesterday.

IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 0, 120N, 864E, 75, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 12, 131N, 865E, 85, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 24, 143N, 866E, 84, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 36, 158N, 870E, 84, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 48, 176N, 875E, 74, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 60, 199N, 882E, 58, 0, TS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 72, 221N, 889E, 48, 0, TS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 84, 236N, 892E, 28, 0, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

The initialization for 12Z SHIPS was made when the best track was giving us a medium category 1 hurricane. I want to see what their next model run looks like (with the updated best track).

I mean you shouldn't taken it literally but it's a sign that environmental conditions could become less favorable after today.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like there is still some lingering easterly shear.

[Abdullah]

12z SHIPS FWIW suggests this may be peaking sooner than I thought yesterday.

IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 0, 120N, 864E, 75, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 12, 131N, 865E, 85, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 24, 143N, 866E, 84, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 36, 158N, 870E, 84, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 48, 176N, 875E, 74, 0, HU, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 60, 199N, 882E, 58, 0, TS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 72, 221N, 889E, 48, 0, TS, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
IO, 01, 2020051712, 03, SHIP, 84, 236N, 892E, 28, 0, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

The initialization for 12Z SHIPS was made when the best track was giving us a medium category 1 hurricane. I want to see what their next model run looks like (with the updated best track).

I mean you shouldn't taken it literally but it's a sign that environmental conditions could become less favorable after today.

Agreed, but doesn't the strength of a storm affect how it interacts with its environment? Possibly causing it to move in a different way or be affected by different factors than it would if it were smaller or weaker?

[1900hurricane]

Here's the ATMS layers from the last NPP pass. Stout structure for sure, but the eastern side is definitely a little weaker on 88 GHz.

[aspen]

Looks like there is still some lingering easterly shear.


https://s6.gifyu.com/images/23504977.gif

Probably due to that anticyclone to the east. I don’t know if shear is ever going to be perfectly favorable for continued RI...to be honest, I’m starting to get Harold vibes from this: insanely impressive cold dark grey CDOs, but the eyes don’t fully clear due to a bit of outflow-restricting shear.

[Hayabusa]

Init same as BT

[aspen]

Us: how much CDG are you going for?

Amphan: yes

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1262151537763192832

[CrazyC83]

Us: how much CDG are you going for?

Amphan: yes

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020io01/4kmsrbdc/2020io01_4kmsrbdc_202005172145.jpg

If not for the shear, we'd probably be seeing an epic monster. If that shear lets up, who knows how strong it could get.

[aspen]

Us: how much CDG are you going for?

Amphan: yes

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020io01/4kmsrbdc/2020io01_4kmsrbdc_202005172145.jpg

If not for the shear, we'd probably be seeing an epic monster. If that shear lets up, who knows how strong it could get.

Positive eye temps would get this to at least T#7.5, without a doubt. Who knows if it’ll even get the chance to fully clear out its eye.

[Abdullah]

What pressure do you guys reckon we'll have around 0Z?

[Highteeld]

What pressure do you guys reckon we'll have around 0Z?

933 mb

[Highteeld]

Eye temp slightly up. could be cyclical

[aspen]

MG eye, raw T up to 6.8

[CrazyC83]

What pressure do you guys reckon we'll have around 0Z?

If we had Recon, I'd guess it would be around 936-940 mb right now.

[Chris90]

I'd go with 125 kt right now (pressure 941 mb). It's clear this is explosively intensifying, but there is definitely a lag. This could very well end up the strongest storm ever in the Indian Ocean basin. If only we had Recon...

No joke, a couple hours ago when I checked in on this storm, I guesstimated 941mb/125kts, so I'm absolutely thrilled to come here and read your post estimating the exact same thing, because I've always enjoyed your analysis.

[aspen]

What pressure do you guys reckon we'll have around 0Z?

Probably 930-935 mbar. Winds might be bumped up to 120-125 kt for 00z.

[aspen]

This is insane: