BoB: AMPHAN - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

TPIO10 PGTW 180015
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN)
B. 17/2345Z
C. 13.18N
D. 86.33E
E. ONE/GOES-IO
F. T7.0/7.0/D4.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO . CMG SURR EYE OF DG +0.5 EYE ADJ YIELDS DT OF
7.0, PT 6.5. MET 5.5. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
DARLOW

[Yellow Evan]

I mean 2345z only has MG from METOSAT8 so not sure what JTWC is looking at with regards to a DG eye since using GEOS-IO. Not impossible that's showing a DG eye and warmer cloud tops though. Of course, I'd also argue the CDG rule should be invoked.

[Nancy Smar]

01B AMPHAN 200518 0000 13.2N 86.5E IO 130 919

[Highteeld]

Pretty remarkable CDO; colder than Haiyan's.

[MarioProtVI]

Amphan’s gone from 85/975 to 150/919 in 12 hours...when was the last time we saw this rate of explosive intensification this fast? On a roll rn to Cat 5 when that eye fully clears..

[Yellow Evan]

2020MAY17 191500 4.4 972.2 74.6 4.4 5.4 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -55.03 -86.28 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.81 -86.57 ARCHER MSG1 53.4
2020MAY17 194500 4.5 970.5 77.0 4.5 5.4 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -57.53 -86.76 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.78 -86.50 ARCHER MSG1 53.3
2020MAY17 201500 4.7 966.7 82.2 4.7 5.4 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -59.40 -86.67 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.80 -86.60 ARCHER MSG1 53.4
2020MAY17 204500 4.9 962.7 87.4 4.9 5.4 6.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -52.64 -86.91 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.90 -86.57 ARCHER MSG1 53.4
2020MAY17 211500 5.1 958.8 92.4 5.1 5.4 6.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -53.99 -86.93 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.90 -86.58 ARCHER MSG1 53.4
2020MAY17 214500 5.2 956.8 94.8 5.2 5.4 6.7 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -54.33 -86.10 EYE -99 IR -15.5 12.97 -86.60 FCST MSG1 53.5
2020MAY17 221500 5.4 952.9 99.6 5.4 5.5 6.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -48.15 -85.62 EYE -99 IR -15.5 13.02 -86.58 ARCHER MSG1 53.5
2020MAY17 224500 5.4 952.9 99.6 5.4 5.5 6.9 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -42.86 -86.06 EYE 8 IR -15.5 13.07 -86.53 ARCHER MSG1 53.4
2020MAY17 230000 5.4 952.8 99.6 5.4 5.6 6.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -46.64 -85.94 EYE -99 IR -15.5 13.12 -86.59 ARCHER MSG1 53.5
2020MAY17 234500 5.4 952.8 99.6 5.4 5.6 6.8 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -51.98 -86.49 EYE -99 IR -15.5 13.22 -86.49 ARCHER MSG1 53.4
Utilizing history file /data2/misc/ADTV9.0/scripts/history/01B.ODT
Successfully completed listing

[aspen]

Pretty remarkable CDO; colder than Haiyan's.

Whenever we have to compare something to Haiyan, you know it’s the real deal.

[Highteeld]

Amphan’s gone from 85/975 to 150/919 in 12 hours...when was the last time we saw this rate of explosive intensification this fast? On a roll rn to Cat 5 when that eye fully clears..

Hagabis last year likely intensified faster than Amphan; so fast that the JTWC was unable to keep up and they missed the peak!

[Hayabusa]

01B AMPHAN 200518 0000 13.2N 86.5E IO 130 919

Super Typhoon Amphan

[TheProfessor]

This has been my first time watching an IO storm. It's been a bittersweet treat due to the fact of knowing that it's going to be catastrophic for the areas it's moving towards.

[MarioProtVI]

IMD is really failing to keep up or they just absolutely suck at estimating the intensity. Apparently they’re calling the increasingly well-defined eye “ragged”. This sort of issue sound familiar to y’all?

[Nancy Smar]

ESCS ‘AMPHAN’over central parts of South BoB near lat12.9°N and long 86.4°E, CENTRAL PARTS OF BOB, CYCLONE ALERT FOR WEST BENGAL AND NORTH ODISHA COASTS.

[Yellow Evan]

[aspen]

A secondary eyewall is trying to form around the tiny, tight inner one. Will an EWRC start to take hold within the next 12 hours, or will that bit of shear from the east delay it?

[Abdullah]

IMD is really failing to keep up or they just absolutely suck at estimating the intensity. Apparently they’re calling the increasingly well-defined eye “ragged”. This sort of issue sound familiar to y’all?

They're literally going to kill people.

[aspen]

IMD is really failing to keep up or they just absolutely suck at estimating the intensity. Apparently they’re calling the increasingly well-defined eye “ragged”. This sort of issue sound familiar to y’all?

When Amphan’s eye is opened up and it skyrockets you 140-150+ kt, the IMD is going to say something dumb like suggesting it’s still a Cat 3 with a W ring.

[CrazyC83]

A secondary eyewall is trying to form around the tiny, tight inner one. Will an EWRC start to take hold within the next 12 hours, or will that bit of shear from the east delay it?
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020io01/amsusr89/2020io01_amsusr89_202005172307.gif

Shear can delay or disrupt formative eyewall cycles too, as we saw with Hurricane Michael.

130 kt seems reasonable, although I think the pressure is probably more like 935 mb.

[aspen]

A secondary eyewall is trying to form around the tiny, tight inner one. Will an EWRC start to take hold within the next 12 hours, or will that bit of shear from the east delay it?
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020io01/amsusr89/2020io01_amsusr89_202005172307.gif

Shear can delay or disrupt formative eyewall cycles too, as we saw with Hurricane Michael.

130 kt seems reasonable, although I think the pressure is probably more like 935 mb.

Didn’t the same thing happen with Dorian? I thought I heard its EWRC was prevented by a bit of shear, allowing it to bomb out before landfall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye temps warming again.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMD is really failing to keep up or they just absolutely suck at estimating the intensity. Apparently they’re calling the increasingly well-defined eye “ragged”. This sort of issue sound familiar to y’all?

When Amphan’s eye is opened up and it skyrockets you 140-150+ kt, the IMD is going to say something dumb like suggesting it’s still a Cat 3 with a W ring.

A little off-topic, but I've always believed there's a political aspect that pressures the IMD to undervalue the intensity of powerful cyclones in order to keep the chaos to a minimum. There's no way the IMD forecasters are as incompetent as some of their past intensity evaluations would lead one to believe.