ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Recon is now reporting higher flight level winds.

URNT15 KNHC 181202
AF304 0501A ARTHUR HDOB 20 20200518
115230 3501N 07516W 8429 01520 0069 +126 +089 138034 034 037 007 00
115300 3502N 07514W 8431 01518 0070 +127 +090 138034 035 035 010 00
115330 3503N 07513W 8428 01523 0073 +125 +091 140037 037 035 011 00
115400 3504N 07512W 8433 01518 0073 +125 +093 140037 037 035 009 00
115430 3505N 07510W 8432 01522 0072 +130 +094 142038 039 035 008 00
115500 3507N 07509W 8432 01523 0075 +128 +095 144039 040 034 005 00
115530 3508N 07507W 8427 01529 0075 +130 +097 148039 041 031 005 00
115600 3509N 07506W 8429 01528 0077 +128 +098 148035 036 033 005 00
115630 3510N 07504W 8431 01528 0078 +128 +099 151035 035 033 005 00
115700 3511N 07503W 8429 01529 0082 +123 +099 150038 039 032 005 00
115730 3512N 07501W 8430 01529 0081 +127 +099 150040 042 034 003 00
115800 3514N 07500W 8432 01531 0081 +130 +099 151041 042 030 004 00
115830 3515N 07458W 8426 01537 0082 +130 +100 149039 041 029 001 00
115900 3516N 07457W 8424 01542 0083 +132 +102 153039 042 029 002 00
115930 3517N 07455W 8430 01533 0087 +127 +104 150040 042 029 003 00
120000 3518N 07454W 8436 01529 0082 +136 +104 152042 043 030 001 00
120030 3520N 07453W 8427 01540 0083 +134 +106 151041 042 031 000 00
120100 3521N 07451W 8433 01534 0084 +135 +107 155040 041 031 000 00
120130 3522N 07450W 8432 01537 0086 +135 +109 154039 040 032 000 00
120200 3523N 07448W 8430 01539 0088 +132 +111 155041 042 032 002 00

[wxman57]

Those two 36kt SFMR winds from the SE are below FL winds of 13 and 17 kts. Highly suspicious.

Buoy just off the coast of Cape Hatteras is confirming TS force winds but in gusts only, barely.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41025

Gusts don't count for classification, though. 25-30 kts seems about right for the average surface winds. Hatteras reporting SE 13 kts.

[NDG]

Those two 36kt SFMR winds from the SE are below FL winds of 13 and 17 kts. Highly suspicious.

Buoy just off the coast of Cape Hatteras is confirming TS force winds but in gusts only, barely.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41025

Gusts don't count for classification, though. 25-30 kts seems about right for the average surface winds. Hatteras reporting SE 13 kts.

Recon finds believable TS force winds further away in the NE quadrant. The gulf stream doing its magic.


121030 3544N 07423W 8428 01557 0108 +130 +104 153043 044 038 006 00
121100 3545N 07421W 8428 01557 0109 +130 +103 153043 044 039 005 00

[wxman57]

Buoy just off the coast of Cape Hatteras is confirming TS force winds but in gusts only, barely.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41025

Gusts don't count for classification, though. 25-30 kts seems about right for the average surface winds. Hatteras reporting SE 13 kts.

Recon finds believable TS force winds further away in the NE quadrant. The gulf stream doing its magic.


121030 3544N 07423W 8428 01557 0108 +130 +104 153043 044 038 006 00
121100 3545N 07421W 8428 01557 0109 +130 +103 153043 044 039 005 00

Yes, TS winds only in NE quadrant. Good for OBX. Little or no impact there.

[NDG]

Gusts don't count for classification, though. 25-30 kts seems about right for the average surface winds. Hatteras reporting SE 13 kts.

Recon finds believable TS force winds further away in the NE quadrant. The gulf stream doing its magic.


121030 3544N 07423W 8428 01557 0108 +130 +104 153043 044 038 006 00
121100 3545N 07421W 8428 01557 0109 +130 +103 153043 044 039 005 00

Yes, TS winds only in NE quadrant. Good for OBX. Little or no impact there.

Yep, the recon is finding very weak winds right along the barrier islands.

[NDG]

A couple of mb drop in the latest pass.

124930 3445N 07538W 8433 01473 9990 +172 +138 012010 011 027 001 00

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1262363863137292288

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1262371034549846016

[seahawkjd]

I'm in Morehead so just on the other side of the Outer Banks and its grey but dead calm wind wise. We've had some good rain but now even that is just sprinkles.

[wxman57]

Peak wind at Hatteras ENE 17 gusting 25 kts. No significant impacts.

[NDG]

Strongest surface winds are in the SE quadrant, pressure continues to drop.

141430 3440N 07438W 8429 01482 0001 +165 +145 215045 046 040 003 00
141500 3441N 07439W 8428 01482 9995 +168 +146 214045 045 041 001 00
141530 3442N 07441W 8432 01477 9993 +170 +146 212047 048 041 001 00
141600 3443N 07442W 8433 01474 9991 +169 +147 213048 048 040 003 00
141630 3444N 07444W 8432 01471 9991 +164 +147 211049 049 039 002 00

[wxman57]

Looks more impressive now than it ever has. Fortunately, that 17 gusting 25 kts was the peak at Hatteras.

[Kazmit]

Looks like the OBX are in the clear with this one, just as it's starting to crank up a bit. It also seems like it will pass near Bermuda as a post-tropical storm but it should be much weaker by then.

[TheStormExpert]

This years Arthur is definitely similar in track to 1996’s Arthur. Differences are this years Arthur is slightly stronger and better organized and formed a month earlier. That one made landfall on the outer banks a lot like 2014’s Hurricane Arthur. Gee, Arthur sures loves the Outer Banks of North Carolina!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Arthur_(1996)

[tolakram]

SLIDER

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1023.3850708007812&y=450.44438552856445

I've seen worse in August.

[Nimbus]

The low level circulation is becoming exposed as there is shear from the SSW.
Hope the early start to the season isn't a harbinger for a busy season.

[tolakram]

Some visual symmetry with Arthur and the big low over the upper midwest.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=6803.711883544922&y=3803.7669677734375

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks like extratropical transition has begun.

[Do_For_Love]

Arthur started making a run for a minute there...Looks like the convection has been removed from the circulation now though.

[wxman57]

Looking very ET tonight. Now, let's have 2-3 months of quiet tropics...