Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NC State is up: 18-22 named storms

#141 Postby Hammy » Thu May 07, 2020 8:16 pm

USTropics wrote:
MetroMike wrote:
aspen wrote:22 would get us to Alpha (there are only 21 names per list in the Atlantic).

The TD;DR of the reasoning for these bullish forecasts is because of warmer than average SSTs (especially in the Gulf), possible high moisture and low shear in the Main Development Region, and signs that the ENSO will progress from a weak El Niño to a La Niña by the peak of the season.


I know it's natural to have a focus on SST this this time of year, but we all know the the SAL is the biggest detriment to development especially in the MDR. Seems it is present every year in the summer.
Are there any predictions for the Easterly trade winds and Sarahan precip patterns being any different than a typical season?


We can look for pattern similarities using long range models. Below is a composite for 8/10 of the most active years in the Atlantic (1926, 1933, 1950, 1961, 1995, 1998, 2004, 2005) and what precipitable patterns looked like for Africa during the months of June-September.
https://i.imgur.com/qgmZI2m.png

Below is the latest CFS prediction for August 2020, which is in accordance with a forecasted active WAM:
https://i.imgur.com/BVP7Oin.png


Looks displaced quite a bit to the north similar to the last several years though. Probably won't have a very active mid-July to mid-August if this holds.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 / Accuweather up

#142 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu May 07, 2020 8:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:
FireRat wrote:It really is striking how all the expert outlooks are in consensus about 2020 being at least above average, many foresee hyperactivity. :double:

Anyone remember.or know when was the last time all forecasting agencies were Gung Ho with their pre-season forecasts?


2013? ;-)

Though that was an unusual case, the chances of us seeing another 2013 this year are very very low IMO.


That's why, even though I did raise my poll forecast, I didn't go as high as some of these agencies.

Hopefully you're onto something CrazyC83! With the record cold in the Eastern U.S. this month you have to wonder if this winter-like pattern will continue and put a lid on things a lot like 2013.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 / Accuweather up

#143 Postby toad strangler » Thu May 07, 2020 10:32 pm

This is pretty insightful heading into a potentially busy season. Either way though, there will be plenty of posts that don't age well lol

 http://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1258547099316019200


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#144 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 15, 2020 12:32 pm

Almost there for the NOAA one.

Image
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 / Accuweather up

#145 Postby Steve » Fri May 15, 2020 1:00 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
hurricanes1234 wrote:
2013? ;-)

Though that was an unusual case, the chances of us seeing another 2013 this year are very very low IMO.


That's why, even though I did raise my poll forecast, I didn't go as high as some of these agencies.

Hopefully you're onto something CrazyC83! With the record cold in the Eastern U.S. this month you have to wonder if this winter-like pattern will continue and put a lid on things a lot like 2013.


Unlikely. Not only that, cold coming down invites heat to come up. That's the way it often works. Someone (scottsvb I think) made that mistake in 2005 when fronts started coming down. I warned him at the time that the fronts didn't mean an early end to the season, they were a leading indicator of what was to come. And it came and kept on coming. The only way it works (until the SW/W to E flow kicks in for good) would be a year like 2001 (99% sure that's the one I'm thinking of) where the southern jetstream was so far south - like the Yucatan or whatever, that the tropics didn't really get going. Michelle hit Cuba around Halloween, but that was a strange year with a very strange pattern. Apologies if it was 2000 and I'm a year off.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 / Accuweather up

#146 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri May 15, 2020 1:33 pm

Steve wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
That's why, even though I did raise my poll forecast, I didn't go as high as some of these agencies.

Hopefully you're onto something CrazyC83! With the record cold in the Eastern U.S. this month you have to wonder if this winter-like pattern will continue and put a lid on things a lot like 2013.


Unlikely. Not only that, cold coming down invites heat to come up. That's the way it often works. Someone (scottsvb I think) made that mistake in 2005 when fronts started coming down. I warned him at the time that the fronts didn't mean an early end to the season, they were a leading indicator of what was to come. And it came and kept on coming. The only way it works (until the SW/W to E flow kicks in for good) would be a year like 2001 (99% sure that's the one I'm thinking of) where the southern jetstream was so far south - like the Yucatan or whatever, that the tropics didn't really get going. Michelle hit Cuba around Halloween, but that was a strange year with a very strange pattern. Apologies if it was 2000 and I'm a year off.

2000, and 2001 were both fairly active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. They both featured 15 named storms each with multiple majors each season.

Of course the U.S. was never really under the gun by anything significant, except T.S. Allison in 2001.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#147 Postby Steve » Fri May 15, 2020 4:39 pm

Yeah, Allison is historic. The fact that 2001 had a bunch of named storms wasn't my point. My point was that there was generally nothing strong coming up out of the tropics. You can see that on wiki's map. Yeah, they had some weak stuff in the tropics and tracks of tropical origin, but there were zero strong storms down there that came up until Michelle which was a late season Caribbean storm so not exactly peak or prime.


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... ry_map.png

edit - I don't feel like even trying to research CFHC (wassup?) all the way back then to see if they even have archives, but looking back at the wiki maps, I'm almost thinking I was wrong and 2000 might have been that super south southern jetstream. I guess you get old and can't remember them all :)
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#148 Postby ouragans » Tue May 19, 2020 10:25 am

Meteo France in the FWI and French Guyana just issued their forecast. In fact, it's the average number from all other institute.

TS: 14-15 (+/- 3)
H: 7-8 (+/- 2)
ACE: 125

Source: http://www.meteofrance.gp/documents/371 ... cyclonique
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#149 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue May 19, 2020 2:20 pm

The UK Met Office has released its 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the June-November period, predicting 13 total tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and a most likely ACE value of 110. This forecast is lower than others.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2020
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#150 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 19, 2020 4:13 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:The UK Met Office has released its 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the June-November period, predicting 13 total tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and a most likely ACE value of 110. This forecast is lower than others.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2020


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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#151 Postby toad strangler » Tue May 19, 2020 4:13 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:The UK Met Office has released its 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the June-November period, predicting 13 total tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and a most likely ACE value of 110. This forecast is lower than others.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2020


I fully expect government funded entities to be conservative. I expect the same with NOAA on Thursday.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#152 Postby Kazmit » Tue May 19, 2020 4:28 pm

toad strangler wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:The UK Met Office has released its 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the June-November period, predicting 13 total tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and a most likely ACE value of 110. This forecast is lower than others.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2020


I fully expect government funded entities to be conservative. I expect the same with NOAA on Thursday.

NOAA is conservative but they also forecast a big range to be even safer. I think the lower end will be about average and the upper end will be above average.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#153 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue May 19, 2020 8:36 pm

It’ll be interesting to see what NOAA number range is on Thursday. Yes there is a nearly guaranteed cool-neutral or weak La Niña but the current state of the Atlantic SST profile might keep things slightly at bay.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#154 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue May 19, 2020 8:41 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:It’ll be interesting to see what NOAA number range is on Thursday. Yes there is a nearly guaranteed cool-neutral or weak La Niña but the current state of the Atlantic SST profile might keep things slightly at bay.

The Atlantic MDR may be a bit cooler than most hyperactive seasons, but it is still warmer than normal overall, and comparable or warmer than many above average seasons. The waters off the US east coast are cooler than normal, so that may result in reduced subsidence over the MDR and Caribbean compared to recent years.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#155 Postby toad strangler » Tue May 19, 2020 8:55 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:It’ll be interesting to see what NOAA number range is on Thursday. Yes there is a nearly guaranteed cool-neutral or weak La Niña but the current state of the Atlantic SST profile might keep things slightly at bay.

The Atlantic MDR may be a bit cooler than most hyperactive seasons, but it is still warmer than normal overall, and comparable or warmer than many above average seasons. The waters off the US east coast are cooler than normal, so that may result in reduced subsidence over the MDR and Caribbean compared to recent years.


Agree violently. Way too much hand wringing happens over MDR SST's. Especially when the numbers are negligible compared to norms.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#156 Postby Shell Mound » Wed May 20, 2020 5:27 am

CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:It’ll be interesting to see what NOAA number range is on Thursday. Yes there is a nearly guaranteed cool-neutral or weak La Niña but the current state of the Atlantic SST profile might keep things slightly at bay.

The Atlantic MDR may be a bit cooler than most hyperactive seasons, but it is still warmer than normal overall, and comparable or warmer than many above average seasons. The waters off the US east coast are cooler than normal, so that may result in reduced subsidence over the MDR and Caribbean compared to recent years.

What’s notable is that the recent -NAO and weaker trades have not resulted in net warming of the MDR/Caribbean.

People are already hinting that forecasts for a hyperactive season are not going to verify, owing in part to stability:
 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1262788694307725313



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1262790571107799040



Based on trends, we likely won’t see much activity, if any, before the second half of August, given early stability.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#157 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 20, 2020 7:28 am

Shell Mound wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:It’ll be interesting to see what NOAA number range is on Thursday. Yes there is a nearly guaranteed cool-neutral or weak La Niña but the current state of the Atlantic SST profile might keep things slightly at bay.

The Atlantic MDR may be a bit cooler than most hyperactive seasons, but it is still warmer than normal overall, and comparable or warmer than many above average seasons. The waters off the US east coast are cooler than normal, so that may result in reduced subsidence over the MDR and Caribbean compared to recent years.

What’s notable is that the recent -NAO and weaker trades have not resulted in net warming of the MDR/Caribbean.

People are already hinting that forecasts for a hyperactive season are not going to verify, owing in part to stability:
https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1262788694307725313
https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1262790571107799040
Based on trends, we likely won’t see much activity, if any, before the second half of August, given early stability.

Not saying this is going to be a dead season but like the tweets say the warmth in the MDR is displaced too far north for that classic +AMO look which would result in a likely hyperactive season with an oncoming cool-neutral or La Niña.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#158 Postby jconsor » Wed May 20, 2020 7:39 am

UKMET's seasonal forecasts for the past four years were too low, though not as much of a low bias as other well-known outlooks such as Tropical Storm Risk, ECMWF and Colorado State:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2019
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2018
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2017
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2016

CyclonicFury wrote:The UK Met Office has released its 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the June-November period, predicting 13 total tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and a most likely ACE value of 110. This forecast is lower than others.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2020
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#159 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed May 20, 2020 8:18 am

jconsor wrote:UKMET's seasonal forecasts for the past four years were too low, though not as much of a low bias as other well-known outlooks such as Tropical Storm Risk, ECMWF and Colorado State:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2019
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2018
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2017
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2016

CyclonicFury wrote:The UK Met Office has released its 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the June-November period, predicting 13 total tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and a most likely ACE value of 110. This forecast is lower than others.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2020

ECMWF’s Atlantic seasonal outlooks tend to be too low also due to the warm ENSO bias it has. I’m expecting an above average season just not a hyperactive one. Most of the activity will probably be west based in the SW Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico due to delayed development.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA Outlook up on May 21 at 11 AM EDT

#160 Postby SFLcane » Wed May 20, 2020 9:22 am

jconsor wrote:UKMET's seasonal forecasts for the past four years were too low, though not as much of a low bias as other well-known outlooks such as Tropical Storm Risk, ECMWF and Colorado State:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2019
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2018
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2017
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2016

CyclonicFury wrote:The UK Met Office has released its 2020 Atlantic hurricane season forecast for the June-November period, predicting 13 total tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes and a most likely ACE value of 110. This forecast is lower than others.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2020



An average of their ACE bias the last 4 years applied to this year would give an ACE of 141.
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