2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[plasticup]

https://i.imgur.com/0rYDXy9.png
GFS then strengthens the Caribbean system into a hurricane in the Bahamas.

And in 0z it is gone. Everything past 240 hours is a fantasy.

[Ivanhater]

If you believe the 12Z gfs we could have an additional 3 named storms by the 1st week of June. Doubtful, but could be showing a favorable pattern the next couple of weeks.

[cycloneye]

If you believe the 12Z gfs we could have an additional 3 named storms by the 1st week of June. Doubtful, but could be showing a favorable pattern the next couple of weeks.

At least one could be squeezed.

[mcheer23]

If you believe the 12Z gfs we could have an additional 3 named storms by the 1st week of June. Doubtful, but could be showing a favorable pattern the next couple of weeks.

At least one could be squeezed.

GEM is showing a system in the same area that the GFS is...around cuba.

[TheStormExpert]

If you believe the 12Z gfs we could have an additional 3 named storms by the 1st week of June. Doubtful, but could be showing a favorable pattern the next couple of weeks.

I only counted two, what’s the third one?

[Ivanhater]

If you believe the 12Z gfs we could have an additional 3 named storms by the 1st week of June. Doubtful, but could be showing a favorable pattern the next couple of weeks.

I only counted two, what’s the third one?

Possibly another one emerging in the Boc at the end.

[sma10]

If we reach the "D" name before June 30, I'm pretty sure we'd be in record territory

[Ryxn]

If we reach the "D" name before June 30, I'm pretty sure we'd be in record territory

Actually, the "D" storm would have to form before June 20 in order to be in record territory as Tropical Storm Danielle is the earliest "D" storm, attaining name status on June 20, 2016. Also if we see 2 more named storms before June like the GFS indicates then "Cristobal" would be the earliest "C" storm breaking the record currently held by Colin in 2016 which attained name status on June 5, 2016. This would also make May 2020 have the record highest amount of named storms with 3, breaking the record of 2 set in 2012 and 1887. It is certainly a possibility we could get Cristobal before June 5 however before the 1st will be hard.

PS. I am back after a near-3-year break Nice to be back. Hope everyone is staying safe!

[cycloneye]

HWRF and HMON will be upgraded.

NOAA will upgrade the hurricane-specific Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models this summer. HWRF will incorporate new data from satellites and radar from NOAA’s coastal Doppler data network to help produce better forecasts of hurricane track and intensity during the critical watch and warning time frame. HMON will undergo enhancements to include higher resolution, improved physics, and coupling with ocean models.

[aperson]

HWRF and HMON will be upgraded.

NOAA will upgrade the hurricane-specific Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF) and the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model (HMON) models this summer. HWRF will incorporate new data from satellites and radar from NOAA’s coastal Doppler data network to help produce better forecasts of hurricane track and intensity during the critical watch and warning time frame. HMON will undergo enhancements to include higher resolution, improved physics, and coupling with ocean models.

Very nice to see more models becoming ocean-coupled!

[SFLcane]

For now EPS is 75% epac regarding development early June.

[Ivanhater]

18Z Gfs has another system developing in the NW Caribbean. Not taking it as gospel with exact placement and timing but the signal is there.

[TheProfessor]

GEPS has been hinting at something in the Gulf early next week, it's almost certainly overdoing things, but the Euro has been going back and forward with showing a crazy onshore flow event for the northern Gulf around this this time and the 0z GEFS does have lower pressures moving north towards the Louisiana coast around this time as well.

[aspen]

GEPS has been hinting at something in the Gulf early next week, it's almost certainly overdoing things, but the Euro has been going back and forward with showing a crazy onshore flow event for the northern Gulf around this this time and the 0z GEFS does have lower pressures moving north towards the Louisiana coast around this time as well.

https://i.imgur.com/gFvdoUO.gif

Look over by <70W and ~30N at the end of the loop: the GEPS is picking up on the same wave/potential TC that the Euro and CMC have been forecasting for the last few days.

[SFLcane]

GFS trending towards the Pacific now for any Gyre system.

[Ivanhater]

GFS trending towards the Pacific now for any Gyre system.

Eh, still has 2 lows on Atlantic side and 2 on the Epac side, the idea is there but the specifics are not. Also the cmc is starting to latch on.

Shorter term, Euro is really liking the low south of Bermuda.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah models easily sniff out CAG events, but usually struggle with what side disturbances will develop. For an 'X' period of times they can agree on EPAC development only to switch to the WATL/GOM.

[Ubuntwo]

18z GFS says screw it and has CAG development on both sides. Also picks up on the same bermuda area development as the euro, but has it weaker.

[aspen]

18z GFS says screw it and has CAG development on both sides. Also picks up on the same bermuda area development as the euro, but has it weaker.

The GFS, Euro, and CMC all have that Bermuda-area development in their latest runs, but at slightly different times. If these hold up, we could see the precursor system early next week, and a TC could develop within next weekend.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

18z GFS says screw it and has CAG development on both sides. Also picks up on the same bermuda area development as the euro, but has it weaker.

Very strange run. In addition to a Gulf system, it goes absolutely mad in the EPAC. Just look at how many areas of vorticity it spins up:

Then again, look at how much it amplifies the MJO in phase 1:

These CAG scenarios can be messy, but then again it's probably a case of the happy hour GFS being the happy hour GFS.