Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[CyclonicFury]

Lol 13-19 storms pathetic!!! Have some balls and say 17-19 not 13-19.

How on earth is that pathetic!? They're being conservative! Just take a look at the current Atlantic SST Anomalies and you might see why.

The Atlantic SST profile isn't as unfavorable as you are saying. The western subtropical Atlantic is cool, which is consistent with a +AMO pattern. In addition, warm SST anomalies in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are actually positively correlated with activity.

[Kazmit]

Lol 13-19 storms pathetic!!! Have some balls and say 17-19 not 13-19.

How on earth is that pathetic!? They're being conservative! Just take a look at the current Atlantic SST Anomalies and you might see why.

The Atlantic SST profile isn't as unfavorable as you are saying. The western subtropical Atlantic is cool, which is consistent with a +AMO pattern. In addition, warm SST anomalies in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are actually positively correlated with activity.

Also, 13-19 storms is above average even if it's at the lower end of that, so regardless of the "unfavorable" indicators, they are still confident it will be an active season.

[Ubuntwo]

Don't get too cocky guys, this forecast is almost identical to the one issued around this time in 2013 and we all know what happened. Keep watching the models and the trends.

[TheStormExpert]

Lol 13-19 storms pathetic!!! Have some balls and say 17-19 not 13-19.

How on earth is that pathetic!? They're being conservative! Just take a look at the current Atlantic SST Anomalies and you might see why.

Come on man 13-19 lol that’s having no confidence, why not 16-19 or 17-19 why 13-19 lol

Well they’re a government funded organization so they have to have a range of some sort in order to be funded. That’s the way they work.

[aspen]

Don't get too cocky guys, this forecast is almost identical to the one issued around this time in 2013 and we all know what happened. Keep watching the models and the trends.

I highly doubt we’d be caught off guard by a 2013-like season again, because now we know the signs to look for. But yes, it is certainly within the realm of possibility at this point that the higher-end forecasts bust and we end up with a closer-to-average season.

[Hammy]

Don't get too cocky guys, this forecast is almost identical to the one issued around this time in 2013 and we all know what happened. Keep watching the models and the trends.

I highly doubt we’d be caught off guard by a 2013-like season again, because now we know the signs to look for. But yes, it is certainly within the realm of possibility at this point that the higher-end forecasts bust and we end up with a closer-to-average season.

I do wonder about the bizarre winter-esque pattern that's going on, but it's more wondering how much of an indicator that was. It's always something that raises my curiosity when it happens during May or June nonetheless.

[chaser1]

Lol 13-19 storms pathetic!!! Have some balls and say 17-19 not 13-19.

Agreed; that's just too much of a range to suggest having a solid handle on predicted season activity. At that point, why not just leave numbers out of the equation entirely and simply state ".... we predict an above average season", and leave it at that.

[MJGarrison]

Lol 13-19 storms pathetic!!! Have some balls and say 17-19 not 13-19.

Agreed; that's just too much of a range to suggest having a solid handle on predicted season activity. At that point, why not just leave numbers out of the equation entirely and simply state ".... we predict an above average season", and leave it at that.

Is there additional methodology defined somewhere? If the analysis based on a statistical model, there could be a lot of variability in that model. If you picture a bell curve of possible outcomes, a wider bell curve would give a larger range for, say, 90% confidence than a tall curve would produce.
The other prediction of 60%/30%/10% screams statistical model. Take the bell curve, divide it into sections below/normal/above sections and total the area under the curve.


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[tolakram]

Lol 13-19 storms pathetic!!! Have some balls and say 17-19 not 13-19.

Agreed; that's just too much of a range to suggest having a solid handle on predicted season activity. At that point, why not just leave numbers out of the equation entirely and simply state ".... we predict an above average season", and leave it at that.

This goes for all predictions, why make them. I'm serious, there is very little skill this early and if anything this prediction is the most 'accurate?' in my opinion. I said honest there but that implies the other predictions are not honest, which is not at all what I meant to imply.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Lol 13-19 storms pathetic!!! Have some balls and say 17-19 not 13-19.

Agreed; that's just too much of a range to suggest having a solid handle on predicted season activity. At that point, why not just leave numbers out of the equation entirely and simply state ".... we predict an above average season", and leave it at that.

This goes for all predictions, why make them. I'm serious, there is very little skill this early and if anything this prediction is the most 'accurate?' in my opinion. I said honest there but that implies the other predictions are not honest, which is not at all what I meant to imply.

I agree the numbers should have just been kept private until decent accuracy could be attained. That cat has long been out of the bag however and I don't think it will change. And I think it is going to take huge technological improvements before we will ever be able to make accurate predictions for an entire season. Just too many variables we can't process completely and don't even fully understand currently. I also don't agree with these charts they put out of 'high risk' areas for tropical impacts. Most of them basically just take the most historically active areas and call them 'high risk'. Saying Florida or North Carolina is at 'high risk' isn't going out on a limb very far. Those areas are high risk every year because of their geographical location.

[TheStormExpert]

Don't get too cocky guys, this forecast is almost identical to the one issued around this time in 2013 and we all know what happened. Keep watching the models and the trends.

I highly doubt we’d be caught off guard by a 2013-like season again, because now we know the signs to look for. But yes, it is certainly within the realm of possibility at this point that the higher-end forecasts bust and we end up with a closer-to-average season.

I do wonder about the bizarre winter-esque pattern that's going on, but it's more wondering how much of an indicator that was. It's always something that raises my curiosity when it happens during May or June nonetheless.

2013 was mentioned as an analog season by a few experts and on Tropical Tidbits so it’s worth considering.

[CyclonicFury]

I highly doubt we’d be caught off guard by a 2013-like season again, because now we know the signs to look for. But yes, it is certainly within the realm of possibility at this point that the higher-end forecasts bust and we end up with a closer-to-average season.

I do wonder about the bizarre winter-esque pattern that's going on, but it's more wondering how much of an indicator that was. It's always something that raises my curiosity when it happens during May or June nonetheless.

2013 was mentioned as an analog season by a few experts and on Tropical Tidbits so it’s worth considering.

What experts have considered 2013 an analog season?

[TheStormExpert]

Here’s NOAA’s May Atlantic Hurricane Season outlooks since 2007.

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1263507704783527939

[Astromanía]

So in conclusion the most active season since 2017 is expected

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263101816654360576

Recent studies have shown that dynamical models have considerable skill predicting the number of tropical storms - for example successfully predicting the change from the exceptionally active season of 2005 to the below-normal activity of the 2006 season. More recently, the GloSea5 seasonal forecast system successfully predicted the above-average activity that was observed in the North Atlantic during 2017, including the high frequency of tropical cyclone tracks around the northeast Caribbean (Camp et al., 2018). Full details of the skill of GloSea5 to predict tropical storm activity around the world has been documented by Camp et al. (2015).

Forecast

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263854239710765058

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263854239710765058

I’m personally thinking that the ECMWF and UKMET will score long-range coups this season, but we’ll see. I think the active “consensus” will be in for some surprises—pleasant ones, fortunately. The UK/EC blend suggests that no major hurricanes will hit the mainland U.S. or the Greater Antilles, with MDR-related activity struggling to detach from the ITCZ, that is, lift northward of the latitude of Trinidad and Tobago. Any homegrown development will tend to be concentrated in the Gulf and hence be weaker at landfall, on average, than an MDR-type system. The northwestern Caribbean and East Coast also look to be relatively safe.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263854239710765058

I’m personally thinking that the ECMWF and UKMET will score long-range coups this season, but we’ll see. I think the active “consensus” will be in for some surprises—pleasant ones, fortunately. The UK/EC blend suggests that no major hurricanes will hit the mainland U.S. or the Greater Antilles, with MDR-related activity struggling to detach from the ITCZ, that is, lift northward of the latitude of Trinidad and Tobago. Any homegrown development will tend to be concentrated in the Gulf and hence be weaker at landfall, on average, than an MDR-type system. The northwestern Caribbean and East Coast also look to be relatively safe.

Well Harvey in a sense was homegrown and look what it amounted to, you can’t just assume there won’t be any major hurricane threats just because storms form closer to the U.S. In fact all four U.S. Cat.5 landfalling hurricanes were only Tropical Storms just three days prior to their catastrophic landfall.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263854239710765058

I’m personally thinking that the ECMWF and UKMET will score long-range coups this season, but we’ll see. I think the active “consensus” will be in for some surprises—pleasant ones, fortunately. The UK/EC blend suggests that no major hurricanes will hit the mainland U.S. or the Greater Antilles, with MDR-related activity struggling to detach from the ITCZ, that is, lift northward of the latitude of Trinidad and Tobago. Any homegrown development will tend to be concentrated in the Gulf and hence be weaker at landfall, on average, than an MDR-type system. The northwestern Caribbean and East Coast also look to be relatively safe.

Well Harvey in a sense was homegrown and look what it amounted to, you can’t just assume there won’t be any major hurricane threats just because storms form closer to the U.S. In fact all four U.S. Cat.5 landfalling hurricanes were only Tropical Storms just three days prior to their catastrophic landfall.

Don’t forget that Michael was a CAG system that formed in the far western Caribbean. I guess you can count that as a home-grown system, and most importantly, this region could have significantly activity this season.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m personally thinking that the ECMWF and UKMET will score long-range coups this season, but we’ll see. I think the active “consensus” will be in for some surprises—pleasant ones, fortunately. The UK/EC blend suggests that no major hurricanes will hit the mainland U.S. or the Greater Antilles, with MDR-related activity struggling to detach from the ITCZ, that is, lift northward of the latitude of Trinidad and Tobago. Any homegrown development will tend to be concentrated in the Gulf and hence be weaker at landfall, on average, than an MDR-type system. The northwestern Caribbean and East Coast also look to be relatively safe.

Well Harvey in a sense was homegrown and look what it amounted to, you can’t just assume there won’t be any major hurricane threats just because storms form closer to the U.S. In fact all four U.S. Cat.5 landfalling hurricanes were only Tropical Storms just three days prior to their catastrophic landfall.

Don’t forget that Michael was a CAG system that formed in the far western Caribbean. I guess you can count that as a home-grown system, and most importantly, this region could have significantly activity this season.

Yes! I was going to mention Michael since it occurred in recent years but I figured just stating that all Cat.5 U.S. impacts rapidly intensified close to landfall would make my point.

Heck! Even Katrina, and Rita first developed close-in within The Bahamas region.