2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

Couldn't decide where this belongs so I thought this thread made the most sense even though it's not a 2020 indicator. It's a per month US landfall historic indicator though. I'd love to see the same types of maps for the islands and SA.

 http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1263597232969748484

[NDG]

I had no idea the Cayman Islands has a radar site, this is going to be nice to use this hurricane season for that part of the Caribbean.



http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/p ... home/radar

[Dylan]

I had no idea the Cayman Islands has a radar site, this is going to be nice to use this hurricane season for that part of the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/9Qukhb2.gif

http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/p ... home/radar

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it down for a long time? Either way, great to have heading into hurricane season!

[NDG]

I had no idea the Cayman Islands has a radar site, this is going to be nice to use this hurricane season for that part of the Caribbean.

https://i.imgur.com/9Qukhb2.gif

http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/p ... home/radar

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it down for a long time? Either way, great to have heading into hurricane season!

Yeah, I guess it was down for a long time because I have not seen it been posted before, a little google I see that it was put in place in 2013.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1263846326627778560

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1263846326627778560

This would insist on development on the East Pacific side?

[Ubuntwo]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1263846326627778560

This would insist on development on the East Pacific side?

The past few gfs runs have the energy begin pacific side, then crossing over to the Caribbean/gulf

[drezee]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1263846326627778560

Based on the setup, Euro is a BoC crossover.

[TheStormExpert]

It’ll be interesting to see the evolution of SST’s in the Atlantic over the next few months. Right now it’s a blend of a +AMO and a -AMO.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1263877121539178496

[TheStormExpert]

It’ll be interesting to see the evolution of SST’s in the Atlantic over the next few months. Right now it’s a blend of a +AMO and a -AMO.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1263877121539178496

I personally think ECMWF + UKMET Superblend is onto something considered the current Atlantic SST configuration. I’m thinking most of not all waves that develop in the Tropical Atlantic will be low riders due to where the warmth is displaced south.

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1263850857369493505

[aspen]

It’ll be interesting to see the evolution of SST’s in the Atlantic over the next few months. Right now it’s a blend of a +AMO and a -AMO.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1263877121539178496

If this SST distribution continues into ASO (which I don’t know is likely or not), I would guess that tropical waves could be delayed into developing in/near the Caribbean, and the subtropics would be active again like in 2018 and 2019.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1263882384820363266



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1263887109548584962



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1263891586368372737



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1263854823780253702

[Shell Mound]

It’ll be interesting to see the evolution of SST’s in the Atlantic over the next few months. Right now it’s a blend of a +AMO and a -AMO.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1263877121539178496

I personally think ECMWF + UKMET Superblend is onto something considered the current Atlantic SST configuration. I’m thinking most of not all waves that develop in the Tropical Atlantic will be low riders due to where the warmth is displaced south.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1263850857369493505

The output strongly suggests that threats to the mainland U.S., if any, would be largely homegrown in nature. Note that the northwestern Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard are largely “dry,” with most systems remaining well to the south of the Greater Antilles. Only the Gulf of Mexico features above-average precipitation in proximity to the mainland U.S. In terms of wind, this is potentially good news, since it suggests that any hurricane impacts to the U.S. would be weak. Going back to 1851, more than three-fourths of all major hurricanes to hit the U.S. developed in the MDR and were thus not homegrown systems. Most homegrown hurricanes tend to be weak (Cat-1/-2) at landfall in the U.S. The UK/EC blend indicates that the MDR-related activity will stay well to the south of the mainland U.S. in ASO of 2020.

[toad strangler]

Didn't NOAA just yesterday state that it is IMPOSSIBLE to forecast storm tracks close in as even just two weeks?

[CyclonicFury]

Didn't NOAA just yesterday state that it is IMPOSSIBLE to forecast storm tracks close in as even just two weeks?

They did. It's way too early to make statements such as "this area will get hit hard this year" or "this area is safe this year."

[TheProfessor]

It’ll be interesting to see the evolution of SST’s in the Atlantic over the next few months. Right now it’s a blend of a +AMO and a -AMO.

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1263877121539178496

I personally think ECMWF + UKMET Superblend is onto something considered the current Atlantic SST configuration. I’m thinking most of not all waves that develop in the Tropical Atlantic will be low riders due to where the warmth is displaced south.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1263850857369493505

The output strongly suggests that threats to the mainland U.S., if any, would be largely homegrown in nature. Note that the northwestern Caribbean and Eastern Seaboard are largely “dry,” with most systems remaining well to the south of the Greater Antilles. Only the Gulf of Mexico features above-average precipitation in proximity to the mainland U.S. In terms of wind, this is potentially good news, since it suggests that any hurricane impacts to the U.S. would be weak. Going back to 1851, more than three-fourths of all major hurricanes to hit the U.S. developed in the MDR and were thus not homegrown systems. Most homegrown hurricanes tend to be weak (Cat-1/-2) at landfall in the U.S. The UK/EC blend indicates that the MDR-related activity will stay well to the south of the mainland U.S. in ASO of 2020.

You need to be careful in how we categorize the origin of tropical systems. For example, Harvey by definition was an MDR storm, but it entered the BOC as a remnant low before rapidly intensifying into a cat-4 hurricane in the Gulf. Michael entered the Gulf as a tropical storm before rapidly intensifying into a cat-5 hurricane. You have hurricane Humberto that very quickly intensified into a cat-1, and of course you can't forget how quickly Katrina went from a cat-1 to cat-5 in the Gulf. When it comes down to it, if conditions are favorable you can't underestimate any storm forming or moving through the GoM, storms can very quickly organize and strengthen in this location. To say homegrown systems are less of a worry is disingenuous. That doesn't even get into the fact that we're talking about models guessing the exact atmospheric steering pattern right 3-5 months out.

[TheStormExpert]

Didn't NOAA just yesterday state that it is IMPOSSIBLE to forecast storm tracks close in as even just two weeks?

These precipitation plumes are sometimes a good tool to use as an indicator. The last 2-3 seasons it did pretty well indicating overall storm clusterings and tracks.

[CyclonicFury]

Didn't NOAA just yesterday state that it is IMPOSSIBLE to forecast storm tracks close in as even just two weeks?

These precipitation plumes are sometimes a good tool to use as an indicator. The last 2-3 seasons it did pretty well indicating overall storm clusterings and tracks.

Not really. TCs are small scale features that cannot accurately be picked up by monthly averaged precipitation anomaly maps. The last two seasons the Euro showed a bone dry Africa and MDR that did not exactly verify. The look on the models is still by far more favorable than the last two years.

[AutoPenalti]

Didn't NOAA just yesterday state that it is IMPOSSIBLE to forecast storm tracks close in as even just two weeks?

These precipitation plumes are sometimes a good tool to use as an indicator. The last 2-3 seasons it did pretty well indicating overall storm clusterings and tracks.

IMO, The swath should only be used to forecast the amount of precipitation that would be available during that range. It DOES NOT and SHOULD NOT be used for forecasting future tracks.

[TheStormExpert]

Didn't NOAA just yesterday state that it is IMPOSSIBLE to forecast storm tracks close in as even just two weeks?

These precipitation plumes are sometimes a good tool to use as an indicator. The last 2-3 seasons it did pretty well indicating overall storm clusterings and tracks.

IMO, The swath should only be used to forecast the amount of precipitation that would be available during that range. It DOES NOT and SHOULD NOT be used for forecasting future tracks.

Ok maybe I'm wrong but I always thought it was a good indicator of where at the very least the ITCZ would be most of the season.