Latest update from Jeff Lindner:
Stormy weather pattern will begin this weekend and last through much of next week.
Upper level ridge of high pressure that has brought the heat and dry weather this week will break down today and Saturday allowing a slow moving trough to move into TX. Upper level pattern over the US will become “blocked” with high pressure on both the east and west coasts and low pressure over the central US. This setup will likely remain in place through the next 5-7 days.
As the upper level trough digs into TX Saturday and Sunday, rain chances will begin to increase. Capping seen today and for much of Saturday over SE TX will erode and by Sunday the air mass will be very capable of producing periods of showers and thunderstorms. Gulf moisture will continue to flow into the region for much of the next 5-7 days with PWS values of 1.8-2.2 inches nearly daily for this period which will help to fuel heavy rainfall. Some severe weather will also be possible each day, but the heavy rainfall threat is likely the bigger concern moving forward.
Complexes of thunderstorms will develop over portions of west and central TX today and Saturday and move toward SE TX, but likely fall apart before reaching the area. Complexes will have a better chance of reaching the area starting Sunday and into next week. Formation of a slow moving and meandering upper level low over west TX late this weekend and much of next week will only help to enhance and focus rain chances.
Forecasted rainfall amounts over the next 5-7 days will likely average 2-4 inches over much of the area…especially west of I-45 and isolated higher totals. Heavy rainfall is looking likely on Sunday and especially Monday for SE TX and we will need to closely monitor this period. Flooding will be possible with this pattern setup from this weekend into much of next week, especially as grounds begin to saturate producing more and more run-off. Given the widespread and repeated nature of the pattern of storm complexes rises on area rivers will be likely with the focus being across the Brazos and Colorado basins to start.
This is a weather pattern that could potentially produce a lot of impacts so it deserves attention.
Forecasted Rainfall Amounts (5 days):
Day 10 image not available
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
713-684-4000 (main) | 713-684-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1