2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TheProfessor]

I'm surprised no one is talking about the 12z GFS. Hour 318(When it first moves into the BoC) is obviously fantasy land, but with the strong signal for the CAG and the fact that FWD(Well I wouldn't expect people outside of DFW to know this.) mentioned the possibility of a feedback loop happening over Texas setting up a semi-permanent trough over the state. A storm moving northward in the GOM around this time certainly wouldn't surprise me.

[Hammy]

18z GFS says screw it and has CAG development on both sides. Also picks up on the same bermuda area development as the euro, but has it weaker.

Very strange run. In addition to a Gulf system, it goes absolutely mad in the EPAC. Just look at how many areas of vorticity it spins up:
https://i.ibb.co/YW7Vhq1/gfs-z850-vort-epac-fh168-384.gif
Then again, look at how much it amplifies the MJO in phase 1:
https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020052218/gfs_chi200_global_24.png
These CAG scenarios can be messy, but then again it's probably a case of the happy hour GFS being the happy hour GFS.

When's the last time we saw a rising cell that strong near the Atlantic basin?

[wxman57]

I'm surprised no one is talking about the 12z GFS. Hour 318(When it first moves into the BoC) is obviously fantasy land, but with the strong signal for the CAG and the fact that FWD(Well I wouldn't expect people outside of DFW to know this.) mentioned the possibility of a feedback loop happening over Texas setting up a semi-permanent trough over the state. A storm moving northward in the GOM around this time certainly wouldn't surprise me.

Key word - fantasy. GFS often gets confused between East Pac and West Caribbean energy this time of year. If it's still showing up in the 7-10 day time frame and IF EC is also showing it, then I'll take notice.

[TheProfessor]

I'm surprised no one is talking about the 12z GFS. Hour 318(When it first moves into the BoC) is obviously fantasy land, but with the strong signal for the CAG and the fact that FWD(Well I wouldn't expect people outside of DFW to know this.) mentioned the possibility of a feedback loop happening over Texas setting up a semi-permanent trough over the state. A storm moving northward in the GOM around this time certainly wouldn't surprise me.

Key word - fantasy. GFS often gets confused between East Pac and West Caribbean energy this time of year. If it's still showing up in the 7-10 day time frame and IF EC is also showing it, then I'll take notice.

It's got some decent ensemble support from the GEFS and GEPS that something could either cross over from the EPAC or form in the Western Caribbean. If there's left over weakness somewhere in the Southern Plains or Lower Mississippi river valley, a storm getting pulled northward would make sense.

[gatorcane]

GFS has the crossover now at 198 hours, timeframe is coming in, genesis in the NW Caribbean ay 204 hours:

[DorkyMcDorkface]

While we're focused on the potential Central American Gyre setup, the UKMET actually pulls a fast one with the current disturbance in the Western Caribbean.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 27.2N 79.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.05.2020 27.2N 79.5W WEAK
12UTC 27.05.2020 29.2N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.05.2020 30.5N 79.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.05.2020 32.0N 80.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.05.2020 33.2N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.05.2020 33.9N 80.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.05.2020 33.5N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

I believe this is the area from which it spawns:

Granted, right now it's the only one that develops this significantly. The CMC and Euro come close, but the circulation remains broad.

[BadLarry95]

While we're focused on the potential Central American Gyre setup, the UKMET actually pulls a fast one with the current disturbance in the Western Caribbean.

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 27.2N 79.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.05.2020 27.2N 79.5W WEAK
12UTC 27.05.2020 29.2N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.05.2020 30.5N 79.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.05.2020 32.0N 80.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.05.2020 33.2N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.05.2020 33.9N 80.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.05.2020 33.5N 78.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

https://i.ibb.co/0KJR9nJ/floop-ukmet-2020052400-sfcwind-mslp-conus.gif

I believe this is the area from which it spawns:
https://i.ibb.co/Bctcnxx/16477815.gif
Granted, right now it's the only one that develops this significantly. The CMC and Euro come close, but the circulation remains broad.
https://i.ibb.co/rxNYbNC/floop-ecmwf-full-2020052400-sfcwind-mslp-conus.gif
https://i.ibb.co/mvVrf7v/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh6-120-1.gif

Typical early season sloppy system incoming. If it develops I see it pulling an Arlene 05/Andrea 13 type path. Maybe a 50-60 mph peak

[Aric Dunn]

Geez the way the models are trending.. we might be at the D name by the end of the first week of June lol

[TheStormExpert]

Geez the way the models are trending.. we might be at the D name by the end of the first week of June lol

Wouldn’t be the first time, look back at 2012.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Back to the CAG: some models are latching on to the possibility of a system/area of vorticity forming in the EPAC before crossing over into the Atlantic.

Euro has a well-defined, compact Bay of Campeche system:




The CMC, JMA and ICON are depicting a similar scenario, but the low is broader. There's clearly something there, however:

[Ubuntwo]

12z euro is onboard with a crossover system

[chaser1]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/714192254180524032/12zECMWF.PNG
12z euro is onboard with a crossover system

Yep, more and more I'm beginning to think that any beginning of June threat will most likely pull up into the Bay of Campeche and eventually threaten the Texas coastline. GFS has steadily been advertising a Pacific cross-over but recent model runs have been trending more and more to the west.

[TheProfessor]

A pretty big jump in the EPS support for a storm possibly crossing over from the EPAC into the Gulf around day 8 or 9. GEPS also suggests something similar and even has a beast of an ensemble member that moves up into Louisiana. It's definitely something worth watching.

[aspen]

I’m already starting to get confused with all the potential systems the models are trying to form. So right now we have:

—A possible quick and sloppy system by Florida in 72-120 hours (Euro, UK, CMC)

—Possibly something weak in the open Atlantic between the Greater Antilles and Bermuda in 120-150 hrs (GFS, Euro, CMC)

—A potential EPac crossover system in the Gulf at 8-10 days out (Euro)

—A long-range TS in the middle of the Caribbean Sea (GFS)

Anyone else want to join the party?

[Cpv17]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/714192254180524032/12zECMWF.PNG
12z euro is onboard with a crossover system

Yep, more and more I'm beginning to think that any beginning of June threat will most likely pull up into the Bay of Campeche and eventually threaten the Texas coastline. GFS has steadily been advertising a Pacific cross-over but recent model runs have been trending more and more to the west.

From day 9 to 10 on the 12z Euro it looks like it wants to move northeast towards Florida.

[toad strangler]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/714192254180524032/12zECMWF.PNG
12z euro is onboard with a crossover system

Yep, more and more I'm beginning to think that any beginning of June threat will most likely pull up into the Bay of Campeche and eventually threaten the Texas coastline. GFS has steadily been advertising a Pacific cross-over but recent model runs have been trending more and more to the west.

From day 9 to 10 on the 12z Euro it looks like it wants to move northeast towards Florida.

That's the tiniest little move you could imagine in a 24 hour period. Look at 500mb. A move to the NE towards FL isn't going to happen should that set up verify.

[SFLcane]

Yep, more and more I'm beginning to think that any beginning of June threat will most likely pull up into the Bay of Campeche and eventually threaten the Texas coastline. GFS has steadily been advertising a Pacific cross-over but recent model runs have been trending more and more to the west.

From day 9 to 10 on the 12z Euro it looks like it wants to move northeast towards Florida.

That's the tiniest little move you could imagine in a 24 hour period. Look at 500mb. A move to the NE towards FL isn't going to happen should that set up verify.

http://i.ibb.co/x8ScnMt/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-11.png

Ridge overhead would head straight into Mexico.

[TheStormExpert]

First off this is 8-10 days out so things will most definitely change. Secondly it’s hard to get a East Pacific crossover into the Atlantic. I’m not saying it’s impossible but given this far out I doubt that’ll happen this way.

[toad strangler]

First off this is 8-10 days out so things will most definitely change. Secondly it’s hard to get a East Pacific crossover into the Atlantic. I’m not saying it’s impossible but given this far out I doubt that’ll happen this way.

That's kind of why I said "Should this set up verify" It was merely discussion on that particular model run and that only.

Anyway, I thought it would go without saying that a range that far out is low confidence and especially with the intricate details of a CAG that modeling struggles with.

[cycloneye]

The only thing I am saying is "GFS is crazy".