Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 95
- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed May 31, 2017 10:37 pm
- Location: Fort Myers / Tallahassee, FL
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance near Florida
Edit: I suck at posting pics lol
One potential factor limiting this AOI's development chances is the degree of stratus NW of the system. During TS Julia there was much less stratus over Georgia. The reason this is problematic for TCG is it keeps the cool wedge in place. TCG isn't impossible, just a difference I noted given the comparisons on the thread to Julia.
One potential factor limiting this AOI's development chances is the degree of stratus NW of the system. During TS Julia there was much less stratus over Georgia. The reason this is problematic for TCG is it keeps the cool wedge in place. TCG isn't impossible, just a difference I noted given the comparisons on the thread to Julia.
1 likes
FSU Meteorology student, opinions are mine, 18 years experience covering TC's, consult NHC/Local officials when making decisions.
Gabrielle '01, Michelle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Dennis '05, Katrina '05, Rita '05, Wilma '05, Fay '08, Isaac '12 Hermine '16, Irma '17, Gordon '18, Michael '18, Eta '20 IAN '22
Gabrielle '01, Michelle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Dennis '05, Katrina '05, Rita '05, Wilma '05, Fay '08, Isaac '12 Hermine '16, Irma '17, Gordon '18, Michael '18, Eta '20 IAN '22
Re: Disturbance near Florida
The 12z combo of the GFS, 3Km NAM, and HRRR show a new surface low developing in the convection to the east of the currently visible low. This new low pivots up into the SC coastline as a tropical cyclone. For this solution to verify, the low level circulation that we've been tracking needs to dissipate / be wrapped into a broader circulation to its east. The 12z HRRR underestimated convective activity nearer the coast, which decreases the probability of a rapidly developing low offshore. However, recent satellite indicates the current low level circulation taking on a more eastward movement vector in the last hour, supporting the idea of at least some consolidation towards the east at the surface (if not the development of a new tight center to the east as some modeling showed). Additionally, surface convergence currently peaks towards the east closer to the zone of lowest shear and highest upper divergence according to the automated 15z analysis from CIMSS.
5 likes
- MississippiWx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1535
- Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Re: Disturbance near Florida
Siker wrote:The 12z combo of the GFS, 3Km NAM, and HRRR show a new surface low developing in the convection to the east of the currently visible low. This new low pivots up into the SC coastline as a tropical cyclone. For this solution to verify, the low level circulation that we've been tracking needs to dissipate / be wrapped into a broader circulation to its east. The 12z HRRR underestimated convective activity nearer the coast, which decreases the probability of a rapidly developing low offshore. However, recent satellite indicates the current low level circulation taking on a more eastward movement vector in the last hour, supporting the idea of at least some consolidation towards the east at the surface (if not the development of a new tight center to the east as some modeling showed). Additionally, surface convergence currently peaks towards the east closer to the zone of lowest shear and highest upper divergence according to the automated 15z analysis from CIMSS.
https://i.imgur.com/9Qcqzg0.gif
https://i.imgur.com/kc4sLxO.gif
Yeah, I think you’re right. Believe I jumped the gun on the original low that moved offshore. It seems to be getting absorbed by the feature to the east. This may allow a better shot at organization as shear appears to be less significant in this area. It’s also an area with higher moisture content.
3 likes
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance near Florida
the Sw and westerly inflow is increasing into that deep convection slightly farther east of the circ. radar showing that circ very quickly being pulled east.
should see center take hold and do a small cyclonic loop as it organizes. over gulf stream waters are plenty warm for a TS>
should see center take hold and do a small cyclonic loop as it organizes. over gulf stream waters are plenty warm for a TS>
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Disturbance near Florida
pretty straight forward..
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: Disturbance near Florida
Where can I find barometric pressure readings for just offshore?
0 likes
Andrew (1992), Irene (1999), Frances (2004), Katrina (2005), Wilma (2005), Fay (2008), Irma (2017), Eta (2020), Ian (2022)
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: Disturbance near Florida
Great eye and analyis Siker. Yeah the latest GFS run showed a redevelopment of surface Low about 50-75 miles off the Northeast Florida coast by 18Z today. That appears to be taking shape.
However, the current old vort traversed close enough to give us some much needed rainfall here in Northeast Florida. I have now picked up just under an inch currently, and more rain will pivot over the area up into early this evening before the old vort gets fully absorbed by the new surface Low farther off shore.
I think we have a good decent shot of seeing TD 2 or even Bertha in the very near term.
However, the current old vort traversed close enough to give us some much needed rainfall here in Northeast Florida. I have now picked up just under an inch currently, and more rain will pivot over the area up into early this evening before the old vort gets fully absorbed by the new surface Low farther off shore.
I think we have a good decent shot of seeing TD 2 or even Bertha in the very near term.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 586
- Joined: Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:46 pm
Re: Disturbance near Florida
BadLarry95 wrote:Well this escalated quickly. It’s starting to remind me of TS Tammy from 2005. One of the few I remember that I woke up one morning before school and it was there
I agree. Tammy was the first system I thought of when I saw this system. Will be interesting to see how it evolves.
0 likes
Fran '96, Georges '98, Gordon '00, Gabrielle '01, Charley '04, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Barry '07, Fay '08, Debby '12, Matthew '16, Emily '17, Irma '17, Michael ‘18, Elsa ‘21, Fred ‘21, Mindy ‘21, Nicole ‘22, Idalia ‘23
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: Disturbance near Florida
A TCFA should be issued shortly for this system. It is certainly well on its way to becoming TS Bertha. The 12Z GFS actually develops a low-end TS within the next day that makes landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC, not too distant from the border with NC. Landfall between Charleston, SC, and Southport, NC, looks to be most plausible at this point, given the location of the emergent LLC and the position(s) of mean steering currents. At any rate, people in the Carolinas should already be prepared for a moderate tropical storm—45 to 50 knots.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Tue May 26, 2020 1:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
4 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Re: Disturbance near Florida
Siker wrote:Fun, the 3Km NAM and the HRRR develop tight surface lows waaaay east and send a TS into SC.
Looks like they could have been on to something
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2434
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 3:39 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL → Scandinavia
Re: Disturbance near Florida
Officially INVEST 91L per floater
0 likes
CVW / MiamiensisWx / Shell Mound
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
- DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 2
- Posts: 745
- Age: 26
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
Re: Disturbance near Florida
AL, 91, 2020052618, , BEST, 0, 296N, 810W, 25, 1010, LO
1 likes
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139714
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Disturbance near Florida: (INVEST 91L is up)
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: HurricaneMaster_PR, islandgirl45 and 44 guests