ATL: BERTHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Much needed rain falling across the northern gulf coast. This system is not producing much

[Aric Dunn]

This is almost certainly a TD at this point. and if recon was flying would probably find a TS>

the 120 mile bouy gusting to 36mph in the SE quad. I would wager recon would find plenty to Upgrade.

[Siker]

Nice convective burst ongoing near where the center relocation has been forecast. I can't really tell if the old low level circulation has been pulled over there or stretched out, but regardless the western edge of that burst looks like the place to watch right now.

[AJC3]

Some credit needs to be given to the GEPS, it sniffed out the tropical wave potentially developing into something well before any other model. Obviously it got location wrong, but that's not unusual 5-6 days out. Obviously it's not a depression yet, but it's definitely more than the very weak wave that wasn't even appearing on the other global models and their probabilistic forecasts.

Agreed. From what I saw over the holiday weekend, several of the global model and their respective ensemble runs were suggesting weak secondary low development on the Atlantic side near the FL and SE U.S. coast. In fact, the OP-UKMET started showing a consolidated low center forming over/east of the Florida peninsula on its runs from Saturday evening onward. Initial runs of the NAM showed stronger surface low development on the GOMEX side, same as the usually more reliable global guidance.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
450 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure near the northeast Florida coast.

1. An elongated area of low pressure located near the northeast Florida
coast and an associated upper-level disturbance are producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms extending from portions of
Florida and coastal Georgia eastward for a few hundred miles over
the Atlantic waters. Some development of this system is possible
through early Wednesday if it remains offshore while moving slowly
northward near the northeastern Florida and Georgia coasts. The low
is expected to move well inland over the southeast U.S. by late
Wednesday, which should end any chance of tropical cyclone
formation.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of coastal sections of northeastern Florida
and Georgia through tonight, and over portions of the Carolinas on
Wednesday. Gusty winds could also produce rough marine conditions
and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coasts of
northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through Wednesday.

For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 3 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1265387485749604352

[Hurricanehink]

Given the storms truck near a lot of buoys and weather stations, I suspect this could be one of those storms where advisories get issued on Bertha after reports of gale force winds

[NDG]

Poor Miami-Dade, they are getting poured on once again by the system's tail end.

[TheAustinMan]

In lieu of recon, we'll likely know more about what's going on in the interior of Invest 91L tonight with a scatterometer pass from ASCAT onboard the METOP-B satellite. This morning's surface low has been getting elongated all day, and I'm curious to see how much of it remains. There may be other competing vortices in the convection that we don't know about as well. We'll probably have the scatterometer data about an hour before midnight Eastern.

Here's what I think the scatterometer swath will look like, which would give us a good glimpse of 91L's structure.

1.1MB. Source: Plotted in Google Earth, with satellite data from SSEC RealEarth. Data swath manually created based on my own guess. Not official.

[northjaxpro]

Picked up an additional 2/3 of an inch iof rain in another band of rain, which pivoted through the Jax metro area late this afternoon. Total rain from 91L at my home station just over 1.8 inches! What a blessing this rain was from Mother Nature!

[BobHarlem]

Miami is getting pounded by rain from this right now, and the train is continuing. 6" so far at the airport.

[Nimbus]

This is almost certainly a TD at this point. and if recon was flying would probably find a TS>

the 120 mile bouy gusting to 36mph in the SE quad. I would wager recon would find plenty to Upgrade.

Winds and gusts from the south there Station 41010.
West Tampa buoy 42036 still has light winds from the south.
Winds from the north somewhere by Tomorrow?

[floridasun78]

dangerous flood here in miami for people driving i was caught into was dangerous drving water was going almost top part of tire we have report at miami airport 6.42 inch rain doing 2 hour

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1265438646393425921

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, earlier in the day I posted to my fellow Storm2K family in South Florida in the Florida Weather Thread to be on alert for strong to severe thunderstorms down that way as the tail end of the deep moisture from 91L impacts that region.

A very dire situation in Miami tonight with severe flash floodng. Nearly 7 inches at this hour reported. As I mentioned earlier, there will be a repeat tomorrow as well of potentially very heavy thunderstorms as that moisture tail will linger for the short to medium term period.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 30.0°N 80.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[Hammy]

In lieu of recon, we'll likely know more about what's going on in the interior of Invest 91L tonight with a scatterometer pass from ASCAT onboard the METOP-B satellite. This morning's surface low has been getting elongated all day, and I'm curious to see how much of it remains. There may be other competing vortices in the convection that we don't know about as well. We'll probably have the scatterometer data about an hour before midnight Eastern.

Here's what I think the scatterometer swath will look like, which would give us a good glimpse of 91L's structure.

1.1MB. Source: Plotted in Google Earth, with satellite data from SSEC RealEarth. Data swath manually created based on my own guess. Not official.
https://i.imgur.com/mthL4iE.png

What's the timing on this that we'd get?

[Jr0d]

Looks like the SpaceX first crewed mission will get scrubbed tomorrow. Even if the weather clears at the Cape, down range in the recovery area will be a no go. They will need fair weather in the unlikely event of an in flight abort diwn range as well as faith weather and seas for the booster recovery.

[TheAustinMan]

In lieu of recon, we'll likely know more about what's going on in the interior of Invest 91L tonight with a scatterometer pass from ASCAT onboard the METOP-B satellite. This morning's surface low has been getting elongated all day, and I'm curious to see how much of it remains. There may be other competing vortices in the convection that we don't know about as well. We'll probably have the scatterometer data about an hour before midnight Eastern.

Here's what I think the scatterometer swath will look like, which would give us a good glimpse of 91L's structure.

1.1MB. Source: Plotted in Google Earth, with satellite data from SSEC RealEarth. Data swath manually created based on my own guess. Not official.
https://i.imgur.com/mthL4iE.png

What's the timing on this that we'd get?

We'll probably have the data by 4 UTC, though the ASCAT data will be from 2 UTC. No guarantees.

[Nancy Smar]

Recent ASCAT data shows that the circulation remains elongated but near-gale force winds appear in the NE quadrant.

[Sciencerocks]