2020 EPAC Season

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro trending more toward the Gfs with a low pressure in the southern gulf from the CAG

[stormlover2013]

Euro only goes out 240 hours it’s not trending it just doesnt go out that far and euro been hinting it also lol, gfs sucks

[NDG]

Little by little the Euro is trending towards the GFS with less ridging over the south central US & GOM.

[Ubuntwo]

Euro only goes out 240 hours it’s not trending it just doesnt go out that far and euro been hinting it also lol, gfs sucks

No there was a noticeable shift even within the timeframe of past runs. They had the vorticity doubling back into the EPAC instead of having some energy split off like in this run.

[stormlover2013]

Euro ensembles been showing it, this was Sunday on the euro, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=228

[stormlover2013]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=228


Euro show this Sunday and ensembles have been hinting at it

[SFLcane]

[stormlover2013]

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[NDG]

Euro ensembles trending towards the GFS.

[BYG Jacob]

Quite a few hurricanes in there.

[Kingarabian]

If the Atlantic continues to sprout TC's this easily the EPAC season will be in cancel mode. The reason: why both the far eastern Pacific and WATL have a good amount of anomalous rising motion, historically only one side can be active. Reason is, the favored region's rising motion will need to sink somewhere and since the Atlantic is off to a great start, the sinking motion will likely be over the EPAC. Since a transition towards La Nina is occurring, the background state is also not favorable from the CPAC to 140W.

[Kingarabian]

Euro ensembles trending towards the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/GIhYljT.png

Almost an October setup

[PTrackerLA]

Wow the 12z Euro ensembles have really lit up, definitely going to keep an eye on this one now. Seems like June is a favorable month to bring systems more northerly in the GOM than many of the other months of the season.

[Kingarabian]

Ridging is back on the happy hour GFS. No cross over. But it does spin up another system in the W-Caribb from the CAG.

[TheProfessor]

Looking at the Euro and GFS ensembles we really don't need to wait long to see if the first part of the equation will verify. Most ensemble members that do crossover have it happening in about 5-8 days. As per usual, the GFS ensembles tend to lead towards the east while the Euro ensembles lean towards the west. Perhaps we'll see something in the middle, perhaps not. There are also some Euro and GFS members that don't crossover, but they form a completely different system in the Caribbean(Like the 18z GFS). The first step will be to see whether something ends up in the Gulf or W.Caribbean first, if that happens then we can start looking to see where the storm could go, but until that happens trying to figure where it ends up is meaningless. I do think we could be in for a long ride with this one, so all we can do now is watch and hope no one has to deal with catastrophic flooding.

[aspen]

Ignoring the madness at >200 hrs, the GFS spins up a TC in the SW Caribbean between next Tuesday and next Thursday. The NAVGEM is also coming on board and shows something developing in the same area at the same time.

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/L32twSJ.png

Well that’s quite an uptick in Euro Ensembles showing development on the Atlantic side from previous runs, some of those are quite strong too!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed May 27 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the coasts of Central America and
southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this week or over the weekend while it drifts northward.

Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
beginning late this week and continuing through the weekend.
These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. See
products from your local weather office for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Yellow Evan]

Catching up on everything,...

18z GFS brings this into El Slvador but keeps it inland without moving over the Atlantic before turning west and re-developed out at sea. Nightmare flooding situation regardless.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF not as strong but also like the 18z GFS. More agreement than I expected for all the talk I've casually seen of Atlantic development.