Hurricanehink wrote:This might influence whether May 15 to 31st should be part of the season. Recent storms forming in that time period (Arthur 08, Beryl 12, Bonnie 16, Alberto 18) caused $203 million in damage and 32 deaths. That's not nothing. Would similar storms have gotten the same media and government attention if they were in season? If some beaches are only guarded during hurricane season, then I can see the advantage of raising more awareness to these relatively common pre-season storm. Adding a few more storms, there was Tropical Depression One in 1988 and 1993, which killed 37 and 20 people respectively, all in Cuba. Subtropical Storm Alpha in 1972 killed people and struck Georgia. Hurricane Alma in 1970 killed 8 in the western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Arlene in 1959 killed one person, and Alice in 1953 killed six. Hurricane Able in 1951 moved near Florida, The Bahamas, and North Carolina. A storm in 1948 killed 80 people when it struck the Dominican Republic. The nicknamed Hurricane Amanda in 1863 killed 110 people when it struck Florida as a Category 2 hurricane. A late May hurricane in 1825 killed 7 people.
That's 293 deaths from storms from May 15 to the 31st. That doesn't mean that any time of year with deadly storms should be a part of the season. Of the off-season hurricanes, the May ones were in the 2nd half of the month.
Something I don't understand is, why is June officially part of the CPAC season when that month has only had one TC in the basin, and it was a crossover from the EPAC? The CPAC in June is usually far too cool to support systems developing near the Hawaiian Islands. Most systems in the CPAC weaken significantly or turn away before they reach Hawaii regardless. I think a May 15 start date for the Atlantic makes sense. FWIW, most Southern Hemisphere basins start in November, which is equivalent to May in the Northern Hemisphere.
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at
http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.