EPAC: AMANDA - Models

[Extratropical94]

https://i.imgur.com/DWtUrjz.gif

Looking at this, I'm quite surprised no one has brought up Eleven-E/Hermine from 2010 yet.

[TheProfessor]

No one look at the 0z HWRF/HWFI.

[kevin]

No one look at the 0z HWRF/HWFI.

I took a look, and let's just hope reality won't be as bad as this run



At least it seems to be the only model so far that brings it to this extreme strengths, even though there are also other models that get it to hurricane strength (cat 1).

[cycloneye]

A reminder that HWRF was upgraded earlier this year so it has to be seen as good now.

[Kingarabian]

Well before getting worried about the HWRF, we have to know if its operating in its designated nest properly. Because in some cases it can spin up bogus TC systems that it's not initialized for. While I'm not saying this system is 100% bogus, somethings that could screw with the HWRF is Amanda's potential reformation (e.g if Amanda was not due to dissipate and re-form this HWRF scenario would be more believable), or another low pressure area embedded within the CAG.

[NDG]

Getting more support from Euro ensembles that it could become a hurricane over the GOM.

[NDG]

A reminder that HWRF was upgraded earlier this year so it has to be seen as good now.

I remember not performing too well with Arthur, was way too aggressive.

[1900hurricane]

No one look at the 0z HWRF/HWFI.

If you didn't want me to look, you shouldn't have said this.

EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 0, 133N, 905W, 30, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 12, 159N, 905W, 25, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 24, 179N, 915W, 29, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 36, 186N, 927W, 32, 0, , 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 48, 190N, 933W, 34, 0, , 34, NEQ, 4, 3, 0, 49,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 60, 195N, 936W, 39, 0, , 34, NEQ, 32, 23, 12, 23,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 72, 200N, 939W, 47, 0, , 34, NEQ, 53, 52, 40, 35,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 84, 202N, 938W, 56, 0, , 34, NEQ, 58, 72, 70, 47,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 84, 202N, 938W, 56, 0, , 50, NEQ, 23, 9, 3, 15,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 96, 203N, 936W, 68, 0, , 34, NEQ, 70, 78, 70, 55,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 96, 203N, 936W, 68, 0, , 50, NEQ, 33, 28, 19, 27,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 96, 203N, 936W, 68, 0, , 64, NEQ, 13, 2, 0, 8,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 108, 207N, 934W, 75, 0, , 34, NEQ, 75, 76, 68, 62,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 108, 207N, 934W, 75, 0, , 50, NEQ, 39, 37, 31, 32,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 108, 207N, 934W, 75, 0, , 64, NEQ, 23, 16, 8, 18,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 120, 213N, 934W, 101, 0, , 34, NEQ, 80, 82, 70, 72,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 120, 213N, 934W, 101, 0, , 50, NEQ, 51, 43, 35, 40,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 120, 213N, 934W, 101, 0, , 64, NEQ, 30, 28, 24, 30,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 132, 218N, 933W, 126, 0, , 34, NEQ, 85, 88, 72, 82,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 132, 218N, 933W, 126, 0, , 50, NEQ, 63, 49, 39, 48,
EP, 02, 2020053106, 03, HWFI, 132, 218N, 933W, 126, 0, , 64, NEQ, 37, 40, 23, 42,

(06Z HWFI is interpolated 00Z HWRF since HWRF is a late cycle model)

[1900hurricane]

A reminder that HWRF was upgraded earlier this year so it has to be seen as good now.

Even without the upgrade, it has been a good intensity model, but the upgrade seems to have helped make it even better. Two cases is definitely not a definitive sample size, but It was by far the best model with both Vongfong and Amphan in terms of intensity. Nothing else was even really close.