EPAC: AMANDA - Remnants

[GCANE]

NHC mentions this under the Atlantic discussion.



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure over the central Atlantic and the potential for tropical
cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

2. Tropical Depression Two-E, located near the Pacific coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador, is forecast to move inland and dissipate
over Guatemala or southeastern Mexico by tonight. However, the
remnants are expected to turn northwestward within a broader
developing area of disturbed weather, possibly emerging over the
Bay of Campeche on Monday. If the remnants do move back over
water, environmental conditions appear conducive to support some
redevelopment of the system while it moves little during much of
the upcoming week. Regardless of redevelopment, heavy rainfall is
likely over portions of southern Mexico during the next few days.
The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued later
this morning by 9 AM EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[GCANE]

The inland LL vort keeps strengthening.
Strong convection firing over Belize moving into the southern Yucatan.

[GCANE]

Looks like 500mb is the level to watch.
A well developed vort interacting with a ULL over the Mexican desert.

[GCANE]

Refire in the BOC will likely be from a shear gradient.
I expect this to be created by the anti-cyclone from Amanda moving north interacting with a strong UL jet in the west GOM.
355K PV forecast is in the clear.
So, some decent hot towers would likely push shear out of the way.

[GCANE]

Could see something in the BOC tomorrow morning.

[GCANE]

If something spins up in the BoC in the next day or two, this track from CMC looks interesting.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

BOC looks primed to develop a TC.

The ULL over the Mexican desert is creating a strong jet from lower to mid levels as seen on Water-Vapor imagery.
Convection already firing along the dry line in the BOC.

Kicker is that Amanda is already pulling in strong TPW from deep in the EPAC tropics.
As the remnants move into the BOC Monday, TPW will flow over the Isthmus of Tec pretty much unimpeded.

Good setup for TC development.

[NDG]

Up to 40/50 of it redeveloping.

[Macrocane]

There's flooding everywhere here in El Salvador this morning. SOme parts of the country have already received 10-12 inches of rain in just 24 hours and the previous day we had 3 to 6 inches of rain.

I will try to post the rainfall maps later today and a few twits with flooding videos.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Amanda Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022020
1000 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

...AMANDA BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR AS IT MOVES INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 90.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF GUATEMALA CITY GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Entire coast of Guatemala

Interests in southern Mexico and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Amanda was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 90.3 West. Amanda is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
north-northeastward or northward motion is expected through this
evening. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur on
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Amanda will move
farther inland over Guatemala today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening should begin very soon while the center moves farther
inland. The cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
or dissipate over the mountains of Central America later today or
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through the middle of the week, Amanda or its remnants are
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over
El Salvador, southern Guatemala, western Honduras, and the Mexican
states of Tabasco and Veracruz. This system is also expected to
produce 5 to 10 inches of rain over northwestern Nicaragua, Belize,
and the Mexican states of Quintana Roo, Campeche, Chiapas, and
Oaxaca. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in El
Salvador, southern Guatemala, Tabasco, and Veracruz. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
portions of the warning area during the next few hours.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022020
1000 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020

Visible satellite imagery and surface observations show that the
center of Amanda has moved inland over southeastern Guatemala. The
system is producing a large area of deep convection and heavy
rainfall over much of southern Guatemala, El Salvador, and western
Honduras. Although the center is inland, recent reports from El
Salvador indicate some areas are receiving winds gusts above
tropical storm force. The initial intensity will remain 35 kt for
this advisory, but rapid weakening should begin very soon as the
center moves farther inland. The system is likely to degenerate
into a remnant low pressure area or dissipate over the the
mountainous terrain of Guatemala later today or tonight.

Amanda is moving north-northeast or 015/8 kt. The cyclone is
embedded within a larger cyclone gyre located over eastern Mexico,
and Amanda or its remnants should turn northward today, and then
northwestward tonight and Monday as it steered around the gyre.
Amanda's remnants should move over eastern Mexico on Monday and be
near the southern Bay of Campeche by late Monday and Tuesday, which
could allow for the formation of a new tropical cyclone. Although
the official forecast implies a continuous track of the system, it
is certainly possible that the low-level center will dissipate and
that a new low will form in association with Amanda's remnants over
eastern Mexico or the southern Bay of Campeche. Please refer to
NHC's Atlantic basin Special Tropical Weather Outlooks for more
details on possible tropical cyclone development in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.

The main hazard from Amanda, and the larger gyre in which the
cyclone is embedded, is expected to be heavy rainfall. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across
portions of Central America and southern Mexico, and these threats
will continue over the next several days even after Amanda is no
longer a tropical cyclone. For additional information, see products
issued by your national meteorological service.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 14.7N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 16.5N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 01/1200Z 18.1N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 02/0000Z 18.7N 92.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 02/1200Z 18.8N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 03/0000Z 18.5N 93.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[1900hurricane]

I'm going to have to update some of my code if it manages to retain its name, even though that seems unlikely at the moment. Regardless, removing all other considerations, I think it would be cool if it maintained itself well enough for that to happen.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Amanda Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022020
100 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM AMANDA SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER EL SALVADOR,
GUATEMALA, AND WESTERN HONDURAS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 90.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NNE OF GUATEMALA CITY GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The governments of El Salvador and Guatemala have discontinued all
tropical storm warnings.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Amanda
was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 90.2 West. Amanda is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through this evening, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Amanda
will move farther inland over Guatemala through this evening.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely this afternoon,
and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low or
dissipate over the mountains of Central America later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through the middle of the week, Amanda or its remnants are
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over
El Salvador, southern Guatemala, western Honduras, and the Mexican
states of Tabasco and Veracruz. This system is also expected to
produce 5 to 10 inches of rain over northwestern Nicaragua, Belize,
and the Mexican states of Quintana Roo, Campeche, Chiapas, and
Oaxaca. Isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible in El
Salvador, southern Guatemala, Tabasco, and Veracruz. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Astromanía]

Going through the Euro members, about half of them show some type of storm in the GOM in the 6-8 day range. Most making landfall between Monterey Mexico and the North Central Gulf area/ la. miss. Ala.
The lowest pressure I saw 968mb I think.

Don't tell me that! I didn't know this was a possible treat for my area as well

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Amanda Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022020
400 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

...AMANDA DISSIPATES BUT HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, WESTERN HONDURAS, AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 90.0W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNE OF GUATEMALA CITY GUATEMALA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Macrocane]

These maps show the rainfall in the last 2 days in El Salvador. Huge amounts of rain, we haven't seen this since tropical depression 12E in october 2011.

Rainfall on May 30.
https://imgur.com/IlBVBRM

Rainfall on May 31
https://imgur.com/5LAtYrv

[Astromanía]

Amanda killed 33 people most in El Salvador, this system was way worse on EPAC due to the mountains in CA that caused mudslides, I just Saw the videos of the flooding in El salvador, just horrible

[Astromanía]

Deadliest system on EPAC since Manuel in 2013, not a good start for the decade