ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Post away about the new invest.

[GCANE]

I estimate the mid-level vort about here

[GCANE]

Given the convection already firing in the BoC, the dry line, the shear gradient, and pressure about to turn south; this could come soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the convection already firing in the BoC, the dry line, the shear gradient, and pressure about to turn south; this could come soon.

The convection in the BOC has continued to keep the pressure slightly lower then the surrounding environment that is what will help pull the main vorticity with Amanda that direction. otherwise like previous solutions it could have continued NE into the NW carrib. which cant be ruled out yet.

All I can say is... this is going to be an interesting couple days to see how the LLC reacts.

The 00z Euro was particularly interesting lol

But nothing beats this mornings 6z GFS.. I mean really ??? lol

[Aric Dunn]

all the HWRF, HMON, EURO , and GFS 12z all have amanda get into the BOC in 30 hours via either moving directly or some sort of reformation.

that circ appears to stay relatively intact and closed as it moves into the BOC. so maybe straight to TS ???

[stormlover2013]

Icon shows strong hurricane saw la/ upper tx

[Aric Dunn]

Where are all the Texas and LA people ?? should be buzzing in there already lol ..

[Cpv17]

I’m here in southeast Texas (just sw of Houston) but this looks to be more of a Louisiana storm right now.

[TexWx]

Here.

[PTrackerLA]

Where are all the Texas and LA people ?? should be buzzing in there already lol ..

Oh I'm tuned in now. Not everyday you see such strong model agreement and aggressive Euro ensembles for a system in the gulf...even during peak month. Going to be a very interesting week around here.

[chaser1]

I estimate the mid-level vort about here

https://i.imgur.com/GMznqAR.png

Yep, I'd guess the broader mid level circulation to be right about (or slightly east of) there. So yeah.... as you and Aric are implying if Amanda's LLC filled quickly, along with already low pressures and continued convection popping in the Bay of Campeche, then we'd more likely be talking about a quicker "reformation" in the BOC/GOM because essentially we'd be talking about the broader envelope of the primary gyre itself consolidating and developing there. That would likely be a quicker process then the GFS solution where essentially a new lobe of energy (or remnant low from Angela) were to have to slowly start from scratch in the BOC. That latter solution also would imply a less initial robust process given the possibly added deterrent of fighting for low level convergence if another Pacific side LLC were to also attempt to develop at the same time. Seems to me that the EURO best depicts a reasonable depiction of this broad complex gyre and the timing that would necessitate to eventually organize in the BOC. In a way, the EURO isn't really quite as fast as the NAVGEM or CMC suggests organization will occur. One very interesting note here, notice how the UK has ZERO development in the GOM from this event. That would be something worth noting should no development on the Atlantic side occur from this.

[Hurricaneman]

Hoping there isn’t another Audrey type But more An 1989 Jerry or less system here, but can’t ignore the trends in the models and also Seems to be coming together quicker than expected

[Siker]

I estimate the mid-level vort about here

https://i.imgur.com/GMznqAR.png

Yep, I'd guess the broader mid level circulation to be right about (or slightly east of) there. So yeah.... as you and Aric are implying if Amanda's LLC filled quickly, along with already low pressures and continued convection popping in the Bay of Campeche, then we'd more likely be talking about a quicker "reformation" in the BOC/GOM because essentially we'd be talking about the broader envelope of the primary gyre itself consolidating and developing there. That would likely be a quicker process then the GFS solution where essentially a new lobe of energy (or remnant low from Angela) were to have to slowly start from scratch in the BOC. That latter solution also would imply a less initial robust process given the possibly added deterrent of fighting for low level convergence if another Pacific side LLC were to also attempt to develop at the same time. Seems to me that the EURO best depicts a reasonable depiction of this broad complex gyre and the timing that would necessitate to eventually organize in the BOC. In a way, the EURO isn't really quite as fast as the NAVGEM or CMC suggests organization will occur. One very interesting note here, notice how the UK has ZERO development in the GOM from this event. That would be something worth noting should no development on the Atlantic side occur from this.

To clarify, are you excluding the BoC when you say the UK doesn’t develop in the GoM? 12z UKMET develops in BoC and sends low slowly ESE into Yucatán vicinity:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 19.3N 93.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.06.2020 48 19.3N 93.8W 1004 34
0000UTC 03.06.2020 60 18.2N 93.2W 1002 31
1200UTC 03.06.2020 72 18.8N 92.0W 1003 32
0000UTC 04.06.2020 84 18.8N 92.1W 1000 31
1200UTC 04.06.2020 96 18.5N 92.3W 1001 29
0000UTC 05.06.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

[Aric Dunn]

I estimate the mid-level vort about here

https://i.imgur.com/GMznqAR.png

Yep, I'd guess the broader mid level circulation to be right about (or slightly east of) there. So yeah.... as you and Aric are implying if Amanda's LLC filled quickly, along with already low pressures and continued convection popping in the Bay of Campeche, then we'd more likely be talking about a quicker "reformation" in the BOC/GOM because essentially we'd be talking about the broader envelope of the primary gyre itself consolidating and developing there. That would likely be a quicker process then the GFS solution where essentially a new lobe of energy (or remnant low from Angela) were to have to slowly start from scratch in the BOC. That latter solution also would imply a less initial robust process given the possibly added deterrent of fighting for low level convergence if another Pacific side LLC were to also attempt to develop at the same time. Seems to me that the EURO best depicts a reasonable depiction of this broad complex gyre and the timing that would necessitate to eventually organize in the BOC. In a way, the EURO isn't really quite as fast as the NAVGEM or CMC suggests organization will occur. One very interesting note here, notice how the UK has ZERO development in the GOM from this event. That would be something worth noting should no development on the Atlantic side occur from this.

Yeah, and the longer it festers or moves slowly the better shot it has at becoming a hurricane as you can see from the ensemble members.

also the UKMET has development in BOC then moves back over land then starts to organize off the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[chaser1]

I’m here in southeast Texas (just sw of Houston) but this looks to be more of a Louisiana storm right now.

Perhaps, though looking at the projected mid level heights over the Southeast U.S. and northern GOM I'd put my .50 bet for "ground zero" landfall occurring between Galveston and Corpus Christi. If this system were to truly deepen to a strong T.S. or minimal hurricane, then it's track would more likely be impacted by the mid levels rather then the southerly low level trades. As I see it this would imply a more N.W. track then a northerly one.

[stormlover2013]

Yeah ur right chase I say corpus to sw la with how upper level looks

[chaser1]

I estimate the mid-level vort about here

https://i.imgur.com/GMznqAR.png

Yep, I'd guess the broader mid level circulation to be right about (or slightly east of) there. So yeah.... as you and Aric are implying if Amanda's LLC filled quickly, along with already low pressures and continued convection popping in the Bay of Campeche, then we'd more likely be talking about a quicker "reformation" in the BOC/GOM because essentially we'd be talking about the broader envelope of the primary gyre itself consolidating and developing there. That would likely be a quicker process then the GFS solution where essentially a new lobe of energy (or remnant low from Angela) were to have to slowly start from scratch in the BOC. That latter solution also would imply a less initial robust process given the possibly added deterrent of fighting for low level convergence if another Pacific side LLC were to also attempt to develop at the same time. Seems to me that the EURO best depicts a reasonable depiction of this broad complex gyre and the timing that would necessitate to eventually organize in the BOC. In a way, the EURO isn't really quite as fast as the NAVGEM or CMC suggests organization will occur. One very interesting note here, notice how the UK has ZERO development in the GOM from this event. That would be something worth noting should no development on the Atlantic side occur from this.

To clarify, are you excluding the BoC when you say the UK doesn’t develop in the GoM? 12z UKMET develops in BoC and sends low slowly ESE into Yucatán vicinity:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 19.3N 93.8W

Thank you, good catch! I couldn't figure out what you were referring to and realized I was referencing an older cached UK model run that didn't depict any BOC reformation LOL.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF has it over the BOC in 24hrs as a intact TD/TS

[chaser1]

12z HWRF has it over the BOC in 24hrs as a intact TD/TS

Damn, now that's a bit scary! It's presently the most aggressive on longer term upside intensity. To be honest though, I think it's also a bit fast on it's development/reorganization.

[BYG Jacob]

Given the conditions in the gulf, this has the potential top surprise a lot of people