ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

We have the 93L models thread for a reason .

[Cpv17]

Given the conditions in the gulf, this has the potential top surprise a lot of people

I’ve heard conditions in the Gulf will be favorable and I’ve heard they won’t be favorable. Idk who to believe at this point.

[BYG Jacob]

Given the conditions in the gulf, this has the potential top surprise a lot of people

I’ve heard conditions in the Gulf will be favorable and I’ve heard they won’t be favorable. Idk who to believe at this point.

They look favorable right now.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the conditions in the gulf, this has the potential top surprise a lot of people

I’ve heard conditions in the Gulf will be favorable and I’ve heard they won’t be favorable. Idk who to believe at this point.

if it is slower and moves north later then the conditions become more favorable. if it faster moving north than shear is higher.

[weathaguyry]

Here is the current shear, there is a small area of favorable conditions by Amanda, but elsewhere the winds are not currently favorable for any formation.

[NotSparta]

Pretty clear MLC over Guatemala right now

[dixiebreeze]

After many, many years of watching GOM storms from West Coast Florida, it would not surprise me to see potential Cristobal shift eventually toward the Northeast before landfall. Seems to be a traditional movement for GOM storms.

[underthwx]

Pretty clear MLC over Guatemala right now

https://i.imgur.com/EsjxyZ9.gif

It looks healthy to me, even without my glasses on...I heard the water temps are warmer in the southern gulf versus the northern gulf...

[Cpv17]

After many, many years of watching GOM storms from West Coast Florida, it would not surprise me to see potential Cristobal shift eventually toward the Northeast before landfall. Seems to be a traditional movement for GOM storms.

There has definitely been an eastern trend in the models since yesterday.

[BYG Jacob]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot

Images won't post for some reason, but aside from the coastline the waters in the GoM are warm enough to support a major hurricane

[Steve]

After many, many years of watching GOM storms from West Coast Florida, it would not surprise me to see potential Cristobal shift eventually toward the Northeast before landfall. Seems to be a traditional movement for GOM storms.

It depends. If it was the first storm of the season I'd probably be on board. But so many BoC storms have meandered down there and spun up or down, gotten stuck on the Yucatan or near Vera Cruz and just moved in, moved due north, northeast, etc. It's going to depend on whether it ever gains enough latitude to possibly get picked up or move into some of the subtropical steering currents.

[Hurricanehink]

If would-be Cristobal strikes the United States as a hurricane before the sixth, it would be the earliest hurricane landfall in the official Atlantic hurricane database. However, there was a hurricane that hit South Carolina on June 3, 1825.

[underthwx]

So this is 93l , and Amanda?

[Aric Dunn]

well the MLC and whatever is left of the surface circ has crossed over the high terrain and is now moving over the relatively flat wet land of the Yucatan.

[aspen]

If would-be Cristobal strikes the United States as a hurricane before the sixth, it would be the earliest hurricane landfall in the official Atlantic hurricane database. However, there was a hurricane that hit South Carolina on June 3, 1825.

It may also have a shot at becoming the earliest third named Atlantic storm on record. Colin ‘16 formed on June 5th, but some models have future Cristobal forming on the 3rd.

[cycloneye]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
155 PM EDT Sun May 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential for
tropical cyclone formation over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression Amanda, centered inland over
eastern Guatemala, is forecast weaken into a remnant low or
dissipate by tonight. However, the remnants of Amanda are expected
to move northwestward within a broader area of disturbed weather,
and could emerge over the southeastern Bay of Campeche on Monday. If
the remnants move back over water, environmental conditions appear
conducive to support some development, and a new tropical depression
could form while the system moves little through the middle of this
week. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is
likely to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El
Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days. For
additional information on the rainfall threat, see products from
your national meteorological service. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be by 9 PM EDT tonight, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brown/Brennan

[NDG]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Here is the current shear, there is a small area of favorable conditions by Amanda, but elsewhere the winds are not currently favorable for any formation.

Is not what is happening now is what is predicted to happen during the next few days. As the whole gyre lifts north slowly so will the UL divergence/difluence that happens on top of monsoonal lows/systems. It will not have the perfect UL conditions, is way too early for that.

[johngaltfla]

Given the conditions in the gulf, this has the potential top surprise a lot of people

I’ve heard conditions in the Gulf will be favorable and I’ve heard they won’t be favorable. Idk who to believe at this point.

I don't know about the Wester GoM but on the Florida side, water temps are pushing 88-89 degrees.

[cycloneye]

Interesting from Postel about retaining the name Amanda in BOC.

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1267136741800108032

[underthwx]

We are getting us some rain here in Brazoria County, looks like potentially a wet week ahead... I work in the Public Works sector of life.. heavy rains are usually working against us in my line of work...