ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Ivanhater]

Anyone have the 00Z Ukmet?

[NDG]

Last night's Euro ensembles' run (on the right side), more members keep the system over water before start tracking northward.
It has been the trend by them during the past few runs.

[BobHarlem]

Anyone have the 00Z Ukmet?

It has a 991mb system off SE Louisiana on Saturday night at the end of it's run, unfortunately I don't have a pic or #s.

[Ivanhater]

Anyone have the 00Z Ukmet?

It has a 991mb system off SE Louisiana on Saturday night at the end of it's run, unfortunately I don't have a pic or #s.

Thank you

[tailgater]

I like the HWFI and the ASNI model they cross back over into the EPAC and maybe get remained again. Lol

[N2FSU]

Anyone have the 00Z Ukmet?

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[Ivanhater]

Anyone have the 00Z Ukmet?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200601/0a13bae4dae7408ca23dba61ad94940f.jpg



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That looks similar to the Gfs, Canadian and Icon. That would be a lot of much needed rain for the northern gulf coast.

[BYG Jacob]

Last night's Euro ensembles' run (on the right side), more members keep the system over water before start tracking northward.
It has been the trend by them during the past few runs.

https://i.imgur.com/LdFqKVi.gif

Interesting to note the ones that do make it north intensify quite a bit

[aspen]

12z GFS still quickly rams it into Mexico, but the run hasn’t fully loaded yet so we don’t know how things have changed with further Gulf activity. It still seems to want some re-development over on the EPac side.

[Nederlander]

12z ICON keeps 93L over water in the BoC, before heading northward toward the middle LA coast. It then bumps into the ridge and bends back westward, making landfall in TX around the Matagorda area. Based on satellite evolution today, I buy the initial projection of the ICON moreso than the GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

I cant even seriously look at the GFS at the moment. lol

[Aric Dunn]

This is all that needs to be said about the GFS the last few runs.. lol

[Ivanhater]

Yeah, 12z gfs is coming in much further east initially with the low forming in the yucatan gap

[SoupBone]

GFS puts it right at the Louisiana/Texas line on next Tuesday, to the East of Houston. I can't see the pressure though.

[aspen]

06z HWRF throws 93L into Mexico and develops it into a hurricane in the EPac.

[SoupBone]

06z HWRF throws 93L into Mexico and develops it into a hurricane in the EPac.

Are you referring to the HWRF-P? It's still on 6z on tropicaltidbits.

[aspen]

06z HWRF throws 93L into Mexico and develops it into a hurricane in the EPac.

Are you referring to the HWRF-P? It's still on 6z on tropicaltidbits.

Yeah, I was looking at that one for a wider view of CA and the Gulf.

[TheProfessor]

We need to stop letting 1 bust determine our opinions of how good a model is. Yes the ICON busted with Dorian's movement in the Bahamas, but that was not a simple forecast. If anyone remembers the steering currents were extremely delicate. There were 4 major players affecting steering and if any one of them were slightly different it would have completely changed the track of the storm. It ended up that the weakness over Missouri was stronger than forecasted and Florida was spared, but there were legit concerns from members here, including me, that the storm could drift southwestward before that feature became clear. More likely than not the ICON just wasn't handling that mesoscale feature well, which is fine, it's not a mesoscale model.

Anyways, if we were going to only judge models by their worst busts then no one would take the UKMET seriously after it kept trying to send Barry into the central Texas coast as a major hurricane last year, even when consensus was showing that Barry likely wouldn't make landfall west of the Tx/La border.

[NDG]

It looks like the latest 12z HWRF will keep it over he BOC, stronger on this run so far.
But it has been very inconsistent from run to run, and very aggressive with it when it has kept it over water.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah 12z HWRF much stronger and organized no extra vorts rotating all over the place which is more indicative of current progress.