ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

There will likely still be enough shear to prevent this from becoming a formidable hurricane.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1267496125549903874

[BYG Jacob]

As for SSTs the only area in the Gulf that might not support a hurricane is near the deep purple shade in the northeast GoM. Everywhere else is 26 degrees Celsius or higher.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/K0LW9cd/gulfmex-cf.gif [/url]

This website paints a completely different picture. Do they collate date differently?

[TheProfessor]

As for SSTs the only area in the Gulf that might not support a hurricane is near the deep purple shade in the northeast GoM. Everywhere else is 26 degrees Celsius or higher.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/K0LW9cd/gulfmex-cf.gif [/url]

This website paints a completely different picture. Do they collate date differently?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

I've never used data like this so I can't personally say how much merit it has. I'm assuming this is assuming that every atmospheric ingredient for a hurricane is perfect and then basing the potential strength of such hurricane off the SSTs and typical environmental pressures.

[AutoPenalti]

I feel like with all the loops that some models like the Euro and the UKMET are forecasting, may deter the future track a bit past 3 days. So really, forcasting landfall anywhere in the Gulf will be hard depending on the ridge and frontal set up.

Not to mention loops are one of the hardest things models have trouble forecasting and verifying.

[cycloneye]

90%/90%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery and radar observations from Mexico show that
the area of disturbed weather centered near the west coast of the
Yucatan peninsula is gradually becoming better organized. The
disturbance will move west-northwestward over the Bay of Campeche
later this afternoon where environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive to support development, and a tropical depression
or storm is likely to form tonight or Tuesday. The system is then
forecast to drift westward or west-southwestward over the southern
Bay of Campeche through the middle of the week. Interests
along the coast of the Bay of Campeche should monitor the progress
of this disturbance as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required for a portion of this area later today or tonight.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely
to continue over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El
Salvador, Belize, and western Honduras during the next few days.
For additional information on the rainfall threat, see products
from your national meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.



$$
Forecaster Brown

[plasticup]

Looking very good on satellite right now. Once the center gets over water this looks like it could spin up quickly.

[aspen]

As for SSTs the only area in the Gulf that might not support a hurricane is near the deep purple shade in the northeast GoM. Everywhere else is 26 degrees Celsius or higher.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/K0LW9cd/gulfmex-cf.gif [/url]

This website paints a completely different picture. Do they collate date differently?

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

That’s only using SSTs and oceanic heat content, and represents the maximum possible intensity a system can reach in a certain region assuming other environmental factors (wind shear, atmospheric moisture levels, outflow, etc) are favorable. For example, if shear was very low and there was plenty of moisture, 93L could theoretically break 930 mbar. However, other factors will likely limit it to a Cat 2 at most.

[MGC]

Ciudad del Carmen airport is reporting a west wind....MGC

[BYG Jacob]

Almost a TD from the looks of it

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it is offshore now.

[plasticup]

That looks like a TD to me. Won't be long now.

[cycloneye]

93L INVEST 200601 1800 19.5N 90.9W ATL 25 1008

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1267534942386499587

[tolakram]

SLIDER
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=3984.914794921875&y=7079.8974609375

[drezee]

NASA Site of 93L

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... mframes=30

[TheAustinMan]

... and with 10 kt westerlies at Ciudad del Carmen for the last 2 hours, why not?

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1267549417051000832

[Aric Dunn]

... and with 10 kt westerlies at Ciudad del Carmen for the last 2 hours, why not?

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1267549417051000832

Not surprised at all.. radar and sat, and surface obs showing a well defiend circ.

[NDG]

THat was fast, forecast track & forecast discussion will be interesting.

[Dean4Storms]

There will likely still be enough shear to prevent this from becoming a formidable hurricane.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1267496125549903874

He said Arthur wasn't never going to form either.

[CyclonicFury]

There will likely still be enough shear to prevent this from becoming a formidable hurricane.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1267496125549903874

He said Arthur wasn't never going to form either.

I wonder what ever happened to him. I remember he used to post here under the name Alyono. I also remember him comparing August 2017 to 2013.