"It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be
a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3"
Not sure I've ever read similar verbiage as that in any other discussion.
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Steve wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:The heaviest rainfall from the GFS 18z run was over the FL Panhandle upwards of 14 inches. The key to this storm and who it effects will be when the westward turn occurs, how far north the system has tracked and how far eastward it is in longitude. Many more model runs to come and much yet to be determined!
Maybe. Jason mentioned 1998 Frances a while back having flooded him in Houston. Frances was off the coast of Corpus Christi, so not very far north, and flooded the **** out of New Orleans as I also got stuck on a neutral ground for about 6 hours trying to wait out the flooding. To me, it's the size and structure that will matter. It doesn't appear that anything that does form is going to race off to to northeast. And if it doesn't get super strong (e.g. Cat 2 or 3), expect the majority of the rainfall to be in east side feeder moisture as you said. I don't envision one of those super sloppy storms where the center keeps reforming - at least not once it's established. So how does the inflow banding set up? Will it be majority South to North bands because if so, those are the ones that will flood people out. As you know from where you are on the coast, if the bands are just rotating through, you get those brief downpours and gusts then a break. But if they're oriented N-S, you know that anyone from Lafayette and possibly as eastward as Panama City or so could be under prolonged deluges if the system is spinning off the TX Coast. Obviously, it's all hypothetical. I don't expect much resolution until late Wednesday or Thursday. Will impulses/lows keep rotating around the "gyre"? Will one take over and break out of that breeding ground? Definitely much more to be determined like you said.
psyclone wrote:Steve wrote:Dean4Storms wrote:The heaviest rainfall from the GFS 18z run was over the FL Panhandle upwards of 14 inches. The key to this storm and who it effects will be when the westward turn occurs, how far north the system has tracked and how far eastward it is in longitude. Many more model runs to come and much yet to be determined!
Maybe. Jason mentioned 1998 Frances a while back having flooded him in Houston. Frances was off the coast of Corpus Christi, so not very far north, and flooded the **** out of New Orleans as I also got stuck on a neutral ground for about 6 hours trying to wait out the flooding. To me, it's the size and structure that will matter. It doesn't appear that anything that does form is going to race off to to northeast. And if it doesn't get super strong (e.g. Cat 2 or 3), expect the majority of the rainfall to be in east side feeder moisture as you said. I don't envision one of those super sloppy storms where the center keeps reforming - at least not once it's established. So how does the inflow banding set up? Will it be majority South to North bands because if so, those are the ones that will flood people out. As you know from where you are on the coast, if the bands are just rotating through, you get those brief downpours and gusts then a break. But if they're oriented N-S, you know that anyone from Lafayette and possibly as eastward as Panama City or so could be under prolonged deluges if the system is spinning off the TX Coast. Obviously, it's all hypothetical. I don't expect much resolution until late Wednesday or Thursday. Will impulses/lows keep rotating around the "gyre"? Will one take over and break out of that breeding ground? Definitely much more to be determined like you said.
I think this makes sense. Our system looks really good (especially by early June standards). there's a good possibility the high qpf depicted on the florida west coast is a byproduct of high PWAT air and southeasterlies stacking up afternoon convection on the west coast over multiple days...In other words our normal rainy season pattern on steroids. we can really pay rent in such a setup and still remain well east of the eventual storm track.
NDG wrote:I am still not buying the potential of TD 3 diving back down into Mexico, dying out with another system developing near the northern coast of the Yucatan P from another vorticity rotating around. Like I mentioned before, I don't ever recall seeing that before.
panamatropicwatch wrote:I was surprised by one of our local meteorologists tonight when he said this system is not going to hit the panhandle and going to turn west. He is counting on a blocking high to our northeast to turn it west. He might be right but I think he stuck his neck out a little to calm people down in the panhandle after Hurricane Michael. I really think it is a little too early in the game to be making blanket statements.
Aric Dunn wrote:
yeah I mentioned this very thing in the model thread several hours ago..
it is very important..
Blinhart wrote:panamatropicwatch wrote:I was surprised by one of our local meteorologists tonight when he said this system is not going to hit the panhandle and going to turn west. He is counting on a blocking high to our northeast to turn it west. He might be right but I think he stuck his neck out a little to calm people down in the panhandle after Hurricane Michael. I really think it is a little too early in the game to be making blanket statements.
Not much of a stretch, most models say that the panhandle is not under the gun with this one.
Steve wrote:Blinhart wrote:panamatropicwatch wrote:I was surprised by one of our local meteorologists tonight when he said this system is not going to hit the panhandle and going to turn west. He is counting on a blocking high to our northeast to turn it west. He might be right but I think he stuck his neck out a little to calm people down in the panhandle after Hurricane Michael. I really think it is a little too early in the game to be making blanket statements.
Not much of a stretch, most models say that the panhandle is not under the gun with this one.
Maybe this far out landfall doesn't look that likely there, but like Dean was saying, they could get some of the worst rainfall totals. Same goes for Alabama, Mississippi or Louisiana <-- again depending on structure, size and organization.
ukmet is the only one and icon sort of..NDG wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:
yeah I mentioned this very thing in the model thread several hours ago..
it is very important..
Yep, here's the EC ensembles forecast for 06z, based on the latest Fix at 03z we can scratch out the ones on the western envelope.
https://i.imgur.com/tG2BF9C.jpg
SoupBone wrote:jasons2k wrote:La Breeze wrote:Ah, ok, got it.
Pretty sure he meant a "left" turn as the high builds in...
Yeah I apologize. When I said right turn I meant from a bird's eye view. It's like a car driving west then takes a right (north) turn into East Texas in a previous model run. It rides the corner of the high.
Astromanía wrote:Tabasco, Campeche, Veracruz and Chiapas are being affected by torrential rain right now, how much time this thing is gonna stay close to the mexican coast before go away? It is possible that makes landfall as a tropical storm in México after all?
Steve wrote:Astromanía wrote:Tabasco, Campeche, Veracruz and Chiapas are being affected by torrential rain right now, how much time this thing is gonna stay close to the mexican coast before go away? It is possible that makes landfall as a tropical storm in México after all?
Looks like 80-90 hours or so. So maybe 3 1/2 days?
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