ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I didn't see in the thread the mention that recon is tasked for today.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 011644
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT MON 01 JUNE 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-006
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 02/1430Z A. 02/2330Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 02/1200Z C. 02/2045Z
D. 20.0N 92.5W D. 19.5N 93.5W
E. 02/1400Z TO 02/1830Z E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 03/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0303A CYCLONE
C. 03/0845Z
D. 19.0N 93.8W
E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 011644
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT MON 01 JUNE 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-006
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 02/1430Z A. 02/2330Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 02/1200Z C. 02/2045Z
D. 20.0N 92.5W D. 19.5N 93.5W
E. 02/1400Z TO 02/1830Z E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 03/1130Z
B. AFXXX 0303A CYCLONE
C. 03/0845Z
D. 19.0N 93.8W
E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
GCANE wrote:ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.
https://i.imgur.com/dhysRFv.png
Getting flashback to Michaels set up
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Wrapping up very quickly now. Radar showing a nice solid curved band that has developed.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Looking more consolidated this morning, banding rain into Florida.
Track should shift back east a little possibly closer to Mississippi with the runs later today.
Track should shift back east a little possibly closer to Mississippi with the runs later today.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
It has moved roughly 100 miles in the las 24hours.. models yesterday had this completing its first loop by today.. not even close..
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
GCANE wrote:ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.
https://i.imgur.com/dhysRFv.png
Most of the models are showing that the upper ridging will be just to its east.. so if this does end up being slower so that the trough gets further down then this will go a little farther east and hit a really good environment while it moves to the NE. a lot of "IFs" of ocurse.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The upper high has been steadily shifting north since yesterday midday. shear is dropping
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:GCANE wrote:ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.
https://i.imgur.com/dhysRFv.png
Most of the models are showing that the upper ridging will be just to its east.. so if this does end up being slower so that the trough gets further down then this will go a little farther east and hit a really good environment while it moves to the NE. a lot of "IFs" of ocurse.
How much further east though? The GFS still has it bumping the high the skirting into LaTex.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:GCANE wrote:ULL now forecast NE of PR as the system is in the middle of the GOM.
This creates a strong poleward outflow channel.
Forecast is for good moisture infeed.
No noticeable dry air entrainment at this point.
A shear axis to the west of the system.
IMHO, chances are good for a stronger storm to make landfall than what GFS is currently showing.
https://i.imgur.com/dhysRFv.png
Most of the models are showing that the upper ridging will be just to its east.. so if this does end up being slower so that the trough gets further down then this will go a little farther east and hit a really good environment while it moves to the NE. a lot of "IFs" of ocurse.
How much further east though? The GFS still has it bumping the high the skirting into LaTex.
It was just a hypithetical scenario.. hence why I said there are a lot of IFs
but if it meandered long enough and the trough swung down then FLorida panhandle is possible.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Firing in 3000 CAPE air.
Pressure dropping.
UL vort dimishing.
Looks like its ramping up.
Pressure dropping.
UL vort dimishing.
Looks like its ramping up.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Look at that naughty little guy starting to wrap convection around the center..
this ladies and jelly bellies is almost certainly a TS>
this ladies and jelly bellies is almost certainly a TS>
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Nimbus wrote:Looking more consolidated this morning, banding rain into Florida.
Track should shift back east a little possibly closer to Mississippi with the runs later today.
What would cause that in your opinion? High plains trough won’t be arriving to pick it up until late Tuesday night, two days after projected landfall.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I wonder if this will be one of those cases where the convection to the northeast keeps pulling on the center
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Ivanhater wrote:I wonder if this will be one of those cases where the convection to the northeast keeps pulling on the center
That is very likely what has already been happening and why it has been so slow. it is more than 12 hours slower than the yesterdays model runs that had it diving into mexico.
that scenario is looking less likely now.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Couple of hot towers just off the CoC.
One to the east of the CoC, rapidly moving north.
Its ramping
One to the east of the CoC, rapidly moving north.
Its ramping
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Nederlander wrote:Nimbus wrote:Looking more consolidated this morning, banding rain into Florida.
Track should shift back east a little possibly closer to Mississippi with the runs later today.
What would cause that in your opinion? High plains trough won’t be arriving to pick it up until late Tuesday night, two days after projected landfall.
he is wishcasting.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Rapid scan on Rammb Slider, Sector: Mesoscale 1
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