ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

So which is it?

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1267829753177731081

Do 40kt+ flight-level winds not support a TS?

Well when I saw the Recon data, I sure as heck based on my experience would classify this as a TS.

[GCANE]

Plenty of 36 knt peak SFMRs

[Aric Dunn]

Deep convection building and wrapping around. center should tighten as it gets pulled to the NE a little...

[cycloneye]

From discussion. Aric read this.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the depression and has found that the system is very
close to tropical storm strength. Based on flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at
30 kt for now.

[GCANE]

Plenty of 36 knt peak SFMRs

My bad, they are peak flt level.
Sorry

[aspen]

Pretty significant track shift for the 12z advisory. They even show a bit of weakening as it skins the coast before strengthening again.

[AnnularCane]

I guess they wanted to wait for the full recon report before upgrading.

[GCANE]

Recon is flying at 925 mb

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The higher SFMR readings could've been rain contaminated, which is why I think the NHC held strength for now.

[Hurricane Jed]

Sounds like the right call. Could have gone either way on an upgrade or not.

[Steve]

Looking more consolidated this morning, banding rain into Florida.
Track should shift back east a little possibly closer to Mississippi with the runs later today.

What would cause that in your opinion? High plains trough won’t be arriving to pick it up until late Tuesday night, two days after projected landfall.

he is -removed-.

Nimbus is a quality poster.

[AnnularCane]

I noticed the latest discussion doesn't seem to mention a second system anymore. Unless I missed it.

[chaser1]

If this thing were to truly begin drifting toward the NE, then that would be further indication of it becoming better stacked with the broader mid level gyre already. If this were so, then i'd pretty much not be surprised for (soon to be) Cristobal to have sustained 50 mph and 998 mb by sometime this evening.

[northjaxpro]

The higher SFMR readings could've been rain contaminated, which is why I think the NHC held strength for now.

Good point. Thst indeed is probably why they held off upgrading for the moment, although it is right on the threshold right now. No doubt it will be upgraded later today.

[Aric Dunn]

From discussion. Aric read this.

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently
investigating the depression and has found that the system is very
close to tropical storm strength. Based on flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds from the plane, the intensity is held at
30 kt for now.

they have not sampled everything. NW quad in this case would be the strongest.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

33 knt now for 30-sec SFMR Avg & Reduction Factor

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1267837949468643328

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1267837949468643328

Yeppers.. what I mentioned before.. it has already begun.

[chaser1]

With continued sampling I'd expect we'll see an official upgrade between 1:00-2:00 p.m. Damn, looks like my prediction missed by about 3 hours and 300 miles

Re: When will Cristobal form?
#18 Postby chaser1 » Thu May 28, 2020 10:35 am

W. Caribbean June 2nd, 5:00 pm (and if it's not Cristobal, it'll be Dolly!).