ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneFrances04]

Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042014
1115 AM CDT Jun 02 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The maximum winds are estimated to
be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1115 AM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 92.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Kazmit]

...And one hour later, it's Cristobal!

[wxman57]

As for the question on intensity, that depends on its structure. If it's a broad, open gyre-type storm like Frances in 1998 (GFS), then it will have a hard time strengthening. If it develops a tighter core with stronger winds not far from the center (ECMWF), then it could easily become a hurricane.

[GCANE]

Strong, close-in convection circulating around the CoC.
This says it all.

[aspen]

Strong, close-in convection circulating around the CoC.
This says it all.

https://i.imgur.com/HyGqFiZ.png

Would that help the CoC tighten up some more?

[GCANE]

Strong, close-in convection circulating around the CoC.
This says it all.

https://i.imgur.com/HyGqFiZ.png

Would that help the CoC tighten up some more?

Absolutely, and strengthen as well.

[Nederlander]

Looks more and more like a swamp maker is headed for Louisiana most likely. Big rains should leave a mark well away from the system. The Yucatan has been getting really heavy rain for awhile now. There must be some impressive totals down there.

Still a long long way to go. Many variables still in play. I do agree, this will be a rainmaker for someone. I still think, and this is my opinion, all interests in the Gulf should watch this. We still have aways to go.....be patient..

Seems the last Euro run is showing it taking 24 hrs+ possibly before moving inland to help out the coastal counties/parishes. Any chance of this stalling?

High plains trough should pick it up Tuesdayish, unless for some reason Cristobal is super slow and misses it, but it doesn’t seem likely based on model guidance, but could certainly slow down as it approaches the coast, waiting on the weakness.

[GCANE]

Latest Vortex Highlights

Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)
1004 mb (down 1mb)
Core 2C (up 1C)

[Buck]

Already a historic season... wow.

[tropicwatch]

NHC upgraded to Cristobal
Location: 19.3°N 92.7°W
Moving: SW at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[TheStormExpert]

Already a historic season... wow.

On point with 2020 unfortunately!

[Aric Dunn]

only two passes.. GRRR.

[SoupBone]

Still a long long way to go. Many variables still in play. I do agree, this will be a rainmaker for someone. I still think, and this is my opinion, all interests in the Gulf should watch this. We still have aways to go.....be patient..

Seems the last Euro run is showing it taking 24 hrs+ possibly before moving inland to help out the coastal counties/parishes. Any chance of this stalling?

High plains trough should pick it up Tuesdayish, unless for some reason Cristobal is super slow and misses it, but it doesn’t seem likely based on model guidance, but could certainly slow down as it approaches the coast, waiting on the weakness.

Sooo last night discussions were that the first trough picking it up would mean a more eastern solution, and the 2nd trough would be what the Euro is showing.

[TheStormExpert]

Jeez!! We keep smashing these third earliest Atlantic named storm records! First 2012, then 2016, now 2020.

[tolakram]

Pretty impressive looking already.

SLIDER visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=3634.7733154296875&y=7042.7587890625

[Camerooski]

So does anyone want to provide any answers to the idea of Cristobal dissipating in the Mexican mountains and a new storm forming in the GOM, or if Cristobal will be the sole player? I'm leaning towards the latter but would love to hear some thoughts!

[TheStormExpert]

Sadly in my opinion Cristobal is likely the first of many Gulf Coast threats this season.

[aspen]

Jeez!! We keep smashing these third earliest Atlantic named storm records! First 2012, then 2016, now 2020.

If this pattern keeps up, perhaps we’ll see Tropical Storm Chris in late May 2024.

[TheStormExpert]

Cristobal also marks the first June Atlantic tropical cyclone since 2017. Last two Junes were void of any tropical development.

[Sciencerocks]

As for the question on intensity, that depends on its structure. If it's a broad, open gyre-type storm like Frances in 1998 (GFS), then it will have a hard time strengthening. If it develops a tighter core with stronger winds not far from the center (ECMWF), then it could easily become a hurricane.

Looking at the current organizion trend I'd say the later leading to a very respectable hurricane. Reminds me a little of Bret 1998 for the southern BOC. The track will probably be a little more east of course and probably won't become a cat4 but we will have to see what becomes of it.