ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Ken711]

[Ivanhater]

Every model has the worst weather northeast. Don't focus on the actual center. The northern gulf coast looks likely for some much needed rain from this

[PTrackerLA]

12z UKMet looks like a cat 1 with pressure in the 980's

[TheStormExpert]

I'm going with a Cat.1 or 2 hurricane landfall somewhere along the NW Gulf Coast near the Louisiana/Texas border early next week.

[Cpv17]

12z UKMet looks like a cat 1 with pressure in the 980's

I wonder if it has it going back out into the Gulf towards Texas after brushing the LA coast. Kinda looks like it?

[bella_may]

Looks like a lot of rain/wind for the central gulf coast

[SoupBone]

Every model has the worst weather northeast. Don't focus on the actual center. The northern gulf coast looks likely for some much needed rain from this

And we don't need it in H-town. Y'all can have it.

QPF agrees with you.

[stormlover2013]

Every model has the worst weather northeast. Don't focus on the actual center. The northern gulf coast looks likely for some much needed rain from this

And we don't need it in H-town. Y'all can have it.

QPF agrees with you.


https://i.imgur.com/GYbovCj.gif

Gfs isn’t going to be right, only way it’s right is if the storm mingles on land like it has it

[Ivanhater]

Every model has the worst weather northeast. Don't focus on the actual center. The northern gulf coast looks likely for some much needed rain from this

And we don't need it in H-town. Y'all can have it.

QPF agrees with you.

https://i.imgur.com/GYbovCj.gif

Thanks for posting that. Major wildfires here so any rain is welcome

[psyclone]

Every model has the worst weather northeast. Don't focus on the actual center. The northern gulf coast looks likely for some much needed rain from this

It's worth mentioning that the worst weather is frequently well removed from the center of a ts. If the system remains loose the worst weather will likely remain a good bit east as has been the case thus far with that mega convective band over the Yucatan. Watching the structure with time makes sense. June climo usually tilts against a tight system...although our formative system looks really good by June standards...

[Fourman]

Texas State Operations Center (SOC) right now is watching but they expect it to miss Texas for now.

Next meeting noon tomorrow.

"Working in the SOC"

[crownweather]

Texas State Operations Center (SOC) right now is watching but they expect it to miss Texas for now.

Next meeting noon tomorrow.

"Working in the SOC"

??? - What is the TX SOC using for guidance/advice for their conclusion that Cristobal will miss Texas (for now). Personally and professionally, I think the Texas coast & especially the middle & upper Texas coast (as well as coastal Louisiana) is well within the threat zone for this system.

[Cpv17]

Texas State Operations Center (SOC) right now is watching but they expect it to miss Texas for now.

Next meeting noon tomorrow.

"Working in the SOC"

??? - What is the TX SOC using for guidance/advice for their conclusion that Cristobal will miss Texas (for now). Personally and professionally, I think the Texas coast & especially the middle & upper Texas coast (as well as coastal Louisiana) is well within the threat zone for this system.

You still think the middle Texas coast could take a hit? Like from Corpus Christi to Matagorda area?

[crownweather]

Texas State Operations Center (SOC) right now is watching but they expect it to miss Texas for now.

Next meeting noon tomorrow.

"Working in the SOC"

??? - What is the TX SOC using for guidance/advice for their conclusion that Cristobal will miss Texas (for now). Personally and professionally, I think the Texas coast & especially the middle & upper Texas coast (as well as coastal Louisiana) is well within the threat zone for this system.

You still think the middle Texas coast could take a hit? Like from Corpus Christi to Matagorda area?

Port Lavaca & Bay City is on the western end of my threat area with Morgan City on the eastern end of the threat area.

[davidiowx]

Texas State Operations Center (SOC) right now is watching but they expect it to miss Texas for now.

Next meeting noon tomorrow.

"Working in the SOC"

That is absurd for them to make a statement like that. Texas is far from being a possibility. Today the models are trending away but that doesn't mean they can't trend right back tomorrow. Looking forward to the Euro here in a few hours.

[Cpv17]

??? - What is the TX SOC using for guidance/advice for their conclusion that Cristobal will miss Texas (for now). Personally and professionally, I think the Texas coast & especially the middle & upper Texas coast (as well as coastal Louisiana) is well within the threat zone for this system.

You still think the middle Texas coast could take a hit? Like from Corpus Christi to Matagorda area?

Port Lavaca & Bay City is on the western end of my threat area with Morgan City on the eastern end of the threat area.

Thanks. I’m not far from Bay City so if it would take the western route that would definitely impact me.

[Cpv17]

The 12z CMC run is weird. Looks like it wants and starts to make a hard left turn, then meanders around for a while before turning north again into central LA.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the current organizational trends with Christobal and what will likely be a quick jump up in intensity over the next 12 hours possibly to hurricane strength assuming it stays over water...

expect all the models to start changing. especially those that disipate over land a reform farther NE.. I.e GFS , UKMET etc.

[crownweather]

The 12z CMC run is weird. Looks like it wants and starts to make a hard left turn, then meanders around for a while before turning north again into central LA.

and then redevelops Cristobal along the Carolina coast next Thursday.

[TXWeatherMan]

Given the current organizational trends with Christobal and what will likely be a quick jump up in intensity over the next 12 hours possibly to hurricane strength assuming it stays over water...

expect all the models to start changing. especially those that disipate over land a reform farther NE.. I.e GFS , UKMET etc.

How would this affect the track if it develops quickly like it is right now?