ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[stormlover2013]

Hwrf and hmon upper Texas coast, I’m saying Galveston to sw la

[SoupBone]

Word to the wise don’t model hug, with it meandering down there in boc models will be everywhere

I think I remember you from last season with this, but this is a model discussion thread, where we, you know, discuss models.

And the Euro coming somewhat in line with the GFS, who has been at least somewhat consistent with path is at least a discussion-worthy topic IMHO.

[Aric Dunn]

Just remember none of the models bring this to a strong TS until 48 to 72 hours..

but with current trends it will probably reach that in less 24... the modesl are showing a fairly shallow system for the first 72 hours.. steering is different.

it is far too early to point out a landfall.. South Texas to Panhandle still in play.

[SFLcane]

Euro with what looks like a minimal cat 1 hurricane into the gulf coast. Not to shabby for June. Going to be a longggg season.

[cycloneye]

Ship to hurricane.

[Fourman]

Texas State Operations Center (SOC) right now is watching but they expect it to miss Texas for now.

Next meeting noon tomorrow.

"Working in the SOC"

That is absurd for them to make a statement like that. Texas is far from being a possibility. Today the models are trending away but that doesn't mean they can't trend right back tomorrow. Looking forward to the Euro here in a few hours.

I was just working another issue and was listening to the conference that is also posted on TDEM website. They will have another briefing tomorrow. I think right now they are still watching it...but are less concerned since the first models was showing a more west movement. Yes they know this can change but right now they are using NOAA which right now is going north.

[Aric Dunn]

all of the 18z guidence has South to SE current motion at least on the spaghetti plot above..

that is not currently happening as of right now it does not appear to be going that far south or inland..

also the 18z best track is about 50 miles to far west.

[stormlover2013]

all of the 18z guidence has South to SE current motion at least on the spaghetti plot above..

that is not currently happening as of right now it does not appear to be going that far south or inland..

also the 18z best track is about 50 miles to far west.

My buddy Nathan who’s a met just said the same thing.

[Nederlander]

Anybody have the parallel euro?

[dantonlsu]

all of the 18z guidence has South to SE current motion at least on the spaghetti plot above..

that is not currently happening as of right now it does not appear to be going that far south or inland..

also the 18z best track is about 50 miles to far west.

Majority of these models show this storm moving over land, then coming back out into the BOC. I find it difficult to believe they will accurately capture how the land interaction will affect it & if a new center will be formed because of it. Don't think we will have a good grasp on this storm for another 24/48 hours.

[NDG]

12z Euro ensembles, they all have it making landfall now but doesn't do much to it with a shift to the right towards LA.

[Ivanhater]

Overall, the Texas models have shifted. Lousiana is the target as of now

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro ensembles, they all have it making landfall now but doesn't do much to it with a shift to the right towards LA.

https://i.imgur.com/HabofFO.gif

unfortunately it is already to the east of the initialized position and moving even farther E/ENE. so we have to wait for the next run of all the models. probably not till 00z

some data might slip in for 18z. but who knows.

[MississippiWx]

Land interaction looks probable, but there is a difference in landfall over the Yucatán. As we saw with the development of Cristobal, land interaction with the flat terrain of the Western peninsula doesn’t have a very negative effect on tropical cyclones. It will weaken, sure, but it most likely won’t kill the system completely. In fact, models that take it inland show it holding together fairly well before ejecting northward.

[AutoPenalti]

12z Euro ensembles, they all have it making landfall now but doesn't do much to it with a shift to the right towards LA.

https://i.imgur.com/HabofFO.gif

oof, 3 whole days until we get an idea of where this goes after meandering.

[sphelps8681]

So if landfall is in Louisiana how close will it be to Beaumont area? I know models will flip and flop back and forth but if Louisiana is the spot was just wondering.

[Nederlander]

So if landfall is in Louisiana how close will it be to Beaumont area? I know models will flip and flop back and forth but if Louisiana is the spot was just wondering.

Too early to tell, but would be good for setx if center made landfall in LA, as the worst would be east of there.. Plus intensity is really up in the air right now.

[northjaxpro]

all of the 18z guidence has South to SE current motion at least on the spaghetti plot above..

that is not currently happening as of right now it does not appear to be going that far south or inland..

also the 18z best track is about 50 miles to far west.

Majority of these models show this storm moving over land, then coming back out into the BOC. I find it difficult to believe they will accurately capture how the land interaction will affect it & if a new center will be formed because of it. Don't think we will have a good grasp on this storm for another 24/48 hours.

Agree! The models will not get a full grasp on this system until the CoC redevelops and emerges back over water after making landfall within the next 12 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

all of the 18z guidence has South to SE current motion at least on the spaghetti plot above..

that is not currently happening as of right now it does not appear to be going that far south or inland..

also the 18z best track is about 50 miles to far west.

Majority of these models show this storm moving over land, then coming back out into the BOC. I find it difficult to believe they will accurately capture how the land interaction will affect it & if a new center will be formed because of it. Don't think we will have a good grasp on this storm for another 24/48 hours.

Agree! The models will not get a full grasp on this system until the CoC redevelops and emerges back over water after making landfall within the next 12 hours.

Assuming it goes inland at all.. and then assuming the circ dies. Amd redevelops in the location per the models..

Simple fact right now its east of model guidance and not moving sse..

Soo yeah.

[northjaxpro]

Majority of these models show this storm moving over land, then coming back out into the BOC. I find it difficult to believe they will accurately capture how the land interaction will affect it & if a new center will be formed because of it. Don't think we will have a good grasp on this storm for another 24/48 hours.

Agree! The models will not get a full grasp on this system until the CoC redevelops and emerges back over water after making landfall within the next 12 hours.

Assuming it goes inland at all.. and then assuming the circ dies. Amd redevelops in the location per the models..

Simple fact right now its east of model guidance and not moving sse..

Soo yeah.

Cristobal will weaken initially for sure but I don't see the CoC dying out or falling apart completely after landfall.
It will jump and re develop a new CoC Aric. This would be typical of early season Gulf cyclones to behave in this manner should this indeed comes to fruition.