ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

For those hoping it was following the models...

Radar is back up and it is still heading its slowly not South.

also the convective structure of the partial core is improved.

[tarheelprogrammer]

For those hoping it was following the models...

Radar is back up and it is still heading its slowly not South.

also the convective structure of the partial core is improved.

https://i.ibb.co/BgLs1N0/ezgif-com-gif-maker-2.gif

To me, in my opinion, it looks like it is drifting slowly SSE looking at that radar loop. That would be somewhat in line the latest model runs we have seen.

[Astromanía]

It will reach land in Campeche.

INIT 02/2100Z 19.1N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 92.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.4N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 18.2N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 18.5N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 19.1N 91.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 05/1800Z 20.4N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/1800Z 23.7N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER

https://i.imgur.com/VydOlT4.png

Woah, so a Campeche landfall? That's even more rare than a Tabasco landfall, actually I don't remember any type of Cyclone making landfall in that state so, that will be a récord if I'm not wrong. Ciudad del Carmen should prepare, I still think it can make landfall as a cat 1 in Mexico, still much rain to come for that area

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Landfall probs 100%, imo.

[Aric Dunn]

For those hoping it was following the models...

Radar is back up and it is still heading its slowly not South.

also the convective structure of the partial core is improved.

https://i.ibb.co/BgLs1N0/ezgif-com-gif-maker-2.gif

To me, in my opinion, it looks like it is drifting slowly SSE looking at that radar loop. That would be somewhat in line the latest model runs we have seen.

appears it has moved slightly to ene actually in the last couple hours..

[CyclonicFury]

I don't think there is enough time for Cristobal to strengthen any more than ~45 kt before making landfall in Campeche.

[Aric Dunn]

couple more images to show the center more clear..

[aspen]

Landfall probs 100%, imo.

https://i.imgur.com/qqTzjyd.jpg

Yeah, landfall is basically certain at this point. What’s important now, however, is how long it remains over land. This will determine how much of Cristobal’s core is left once it re-emerges over the BOC, and also how it’ll be able to intensify afterwards.

[gfsperpendicular]

Looks like another set of hot towers are getting ready to go off near the center of the storm.

[NDG]

Ciudad del Carmen's pressure down to 1003 mb with the CoC still to its NW, Cristobal's pressure has to be in the 990s already.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 022140Z 14012KT 1SM -RA OVC015CB 25/24 A2963 RMK 62985 8/3// COND VRB
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.63 inches Hg (1003.5 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

[Aric Dunn]

Ciudad del Carmen's pressure down to 1003 mb with the CoC still to its NW, Cristobal's pressure has to be in the 990s already.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 022140Z 14012KT 1SM -RA OVC015CB 25/24 A2963 RMK 62985 8/3// COND VRB
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.63 inches Hg (1003.5 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

I would not be surprised at all if it was 995 to 998mb. winds 55kts.

[Aric Dunn]

Nice little tight small Partial Donut... curved band wrapping around.

[aspen]

Ciudad del Carmen's pressure down to 1003 mb with the CoC still to its NW, Cristobal's pressure has to be in the 990s already.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 022140Z 14012KT 1SM -RA OVC015CB 25/24 A2963 RMK 62985 8/3// COND VRB
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.63 inches Hg (1003.5 mb)
Winds: from the SE (140 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)
Ceiling: 1500 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 1500 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

I would not be surprised at all if it was 995 to 998mb. winds 55kts.

We will see soon. The newest recon flight is almost at Cristobal. I’m thinking we’ll see at least 40-45 kt.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1267923667859632128

[tropicwatch]

The center might be too close to land for recon to get into it.

[gatorcane]

Looks like nothing I see today has me changing my opinion on this storm since posting about 24 hours ago. Looks like the system should lift north eventually in the Gulf and it should experience some shear keeping it in check, some east shifts in the models today are of no surprise. Might see some more shifts east when all is said and done due to shear from the SW. The GFS modeling of this storm really doesn’t look that far fetched and I see the Euro is moving closer to that solution As far as track the last couple of runs. Wouldn’t be surprised if it also comes down on intensity closer to the GFS prediction.

[NDG]

So far the recon is finding legit TS force winds on the NE quadrant.

32230 1952N 09154W 9251 00716 0048 +190 +156 114043 044 037 001 00
232300 1952N 09156W 9256 00712 0047 +192 +156 115044 046 037 001 00
232330 1952N 09159W 9246 00721 0047 +189 +157 112044 046 035 002 00
232400 1951N 09201W 9255 00712 0046 +188 +158 111043 044 037 002 00

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is nearly there..

Center should be near the NW side of that ball of convection. pressure from recon not quite there yet.. 1004mb.. I would say upper 990s mb

[NDG]

The center might be too close to land for recon to get into it.

According to radar it looks to be a good 40 miles offshore, shouldn't be a problem.

[NDG]

51 knot flight level winds, 998 mb pressure so far, still not in the coc.

232930 1939N 09221W 9261 00690 0028 +192 +162 099048 049 037 001 00
233000 1938N 09223W 9244 00706 0025 +194 +162 097049 051 037 001 00
233030 1936N 09224W 9252 00694 0022 +193 +163 095049 051 037 001 00
233100 1934N 09225W 9255 00690 0020 +195 +163 092047 049 037 001 00
233130 1932N 09226W 9254 00688 0015 +200 +164 090043 045 038 001 00
233200 1931N 09226W 9256 00683 0010 +207 +165 084037 042 038 001 00
233230 1929N 09227W 9252 00684 0007 +206 +167 076037 038 037 001 00
233300 1927N 09227W 9256 00676 0001 +211 +169 062034 038 038 001 00
233330 1925N 09228W 9251 00674 9994 +214 +171 053032 034 039 000 03
233400 1923N 09228W 9250 00671 9988 +214 +172 041029 032 034 001 00