ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

from the last center fix to the 7pm advisory postion is the red line.. and the blue line is the actual..

00z models will shift again.. since it should have been 50+ miles south near the coast or inland..

12 plus hours extra over water to all the models that put it over land

[ColdMiser123]

Plenty of >50 KT FL wind in the eastern semicircle away from the COC.

[Aric Dunn]

appears to be some northerly mid level shear.. maybe that is why the models have been pushing it south. could be over doing the mid level shear??

[PTrackerLA]

from the last center fix to the 7pm advisory postion is the red line.. and the blue line is the actual..

00z models will shift again.. since it should have been 50+ miles south near the coast or inland..

12 plus hours extra over water to all the models that put it over land

I would expect more changes in intensity vs changes in track if it stays offshore longer. The guidance has narrowed pretty well between Galveston and Nola/MS border with a landfall late Sunday or Monday.

[Aric Dunn]

from the last center fix to the 7pm advisory postion is the red line.. and the blue line is the actual..

00z models will shift again.. since it should have been 50+ miles south near the coast or inland..

12 plus hours extra over water to all the models that put it over land

I would expect more changes in intensity vs changes in track if it stays offshore longer. The guidance has narrowed pretty well between Galveston and Nola/MS border with a landfall late Sunday or Monday.

yes but that is completely dependent upon the 24hours it spends looping over land.. if it does not move south then back north and just starts moving then there is a 24 hours change in timing... which causes problems with the trough/ridge placement..

[Aric Dunn]

bunch of 50 kt FL heading in on the strong side.. 60kt FL is quite possible as it gets closer to center.

if so then after the normal reduction/ blend of SFMR and winds should be upped to 50kt

[chaser1]

Without question this has got to be the most entertaining June T.S. that I recall having wobble-watched! I mean, we started with Amanda and now have Cristobal. Heck, unlikely as it is..... we could lose Cristobal and wind up looking at Boris on the E. Pac side.... but wait? Dolly suddenly popping out of this mess either east or west of Yucatan LMAO? Hey, right now Cristobal is plenty to try and keep track of.

[PTrackerLA]

Without question this has got to be the most entertaining June T.S. that I recall having wobble-watched! I mean, we started with Amanda and now have Cristobal. Heck, unlikely as it is..... we could lose Cristobal and wind up looking at Boris on the E. Pac side.... but wait? Dolly suddenly popping out of this mess either east or west of Yucatan LMAO? Hey, right now Cristobal is plenty to try and keep track of.

Cristobal could be the most well organized June TC in the gulf outside of Alex in modern times. Hurricane Audrey predates me by several decades but I've always been amazed how it was able to strengthen so quickly and deeply in June. Here we are 3 weeks before that storm even occurred in 1957 and we could be witnessing a TC knocking on the door of major status if some of the euro ensembles are correct. It's going to be a long season.

[ConvergenceZone]

It will be interesting if there's anything left of this storm once it emerges back out to sea(after the landfall). It seems like it's predicted to be over land for a decent amount of time. It will be interesting to see if it's able to maintain depression status or be a open wave once it re-merges into the gulf...

[Aric Dunn]

50 kts seem reasonable with this..

003400 1914N 09136W 9252 00710 0047 +170 +143 134050 051 040 017 00
003430 1914N 09138W 9252 00707 0042 +171 +142 134050 052 046 024 00
003500 1914N 09140W 9251 00706 0040 +177 +141 137049 050 046 023 00
003530 1914N 09142W 9247 00708 0039 +177 +141 140050 052 043 011 00
003600 1914N 09144W 9251 00699 0037 +176 +141 144046 050 044 012 00
003630 1914N 09145W 9249 00706 0037 +175 +142 142045 051 039 016 00
003700 1914N 09147W 9251 00702 0037 +177 +142 143041 043 039 020 00
003730 1914N 09149W 9246 00704 0034 +177 +143 149046 048 047 043 00
003800 1914N 09151W 9248 00701 0031 +180 +144 155049 050 040 015 00

[psyclone]

It will be interesting if there's anything left of this storm once it emerges back out to sea(after the landfall). It seems like it's predicted to be over land for a decent amount of time. It will be interesting to see if it's able to maintain depression status or be a open wave once it re-merges into the gulf...

It's got a vigorous circulation so as long as it avoids mountains it will do just fine. It's developed quite nicely with part of the circulation over land

[Aric Dunn]

almost no movement from pass too pass. NHC should have stuck with their slow meandering forecast from this morning..

[cycloneye]

There is the second pass.

[Aric Dunn]

New Vortex message is 996 MB.

[aspen]

bunch of 50 kt FL heading in on the strong side.. 60kt FL is quite possible as it gets closer to center.

if so then after the normal reduction/ blend of SFMR and winds should be upped to 50kt

50 kt and 996 mbar seems good based on what recon has showed.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think it's also worth looking at the topography. Where it was forecast to go in earlier is quite mountainous. Where it might skim the coast now...not so much, so the disruption will be quite a bit less than what was earlier in the forecast

[Aric Dunn]

Latest loop.

still a little northerly mid level shear. if that weakens then nothing really stopping this from deepening.

[hipshot]

Latest loop.

still a little northerly mid level shear. if that weakens then nothing really stopping this from deepening.

https://i.ibb.co/dc42Y1R/ezgif-com-optimize-4.gif

From that loop, it looks to my untrained eye like it has come ashore and is now starting its loop toward the E/N.E.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest loop.

still a little northerly mid level shear. if that weakens then nothing really stopping this from deepening.

https://i.ibb.co/dc42Y1R/ezgif-com-optimize-4.gif

From that loop, it looks to my untrained eye like it has come ashore and is now starting its loop toward the E/N.E.

it has just been moving east all day slowly . radar and now Recon has confirmed this.

[chaser1]

Latest loop.

still a little northerly mid level shear. if that weakens then nothing really stopping this from deepening.

https://i.ibb.co/dc42Y1R/ezgif-com-optimize-4.gif

From that loop, it looks to my untrained eye like it has come ashore and is now starting its loop toward the E/N.E.

Funny from just taking a super quick look, one could believe that they might be looking at a low level center winking at them . "Sucker-hole"??