NIO: NISARGA - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

This is on the verge of becoming a tropical/cyclonic storm if it isn't one yet. The system appears to have established dual outflow channels, and model guidance continue to show quick strengthening to strong TS or if it stays a bit more over water, into a minimal cyclone (hurricane/typhoon) prior to landfall. Fortunately, it's also running out of time for anything more than that with just about 24hrs away from landfall.

[Nancy Smar]

FKIN20 VIDP 020906
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20200602/0600Z
TC: NISARGA
NR: 06
PSN: N1536 E07112
MOV: N07KT
C: 0998HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 02/1200Z N1618 E07118
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 45 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 02/1800Z N1700 E07130
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 50 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 03/0000Z N1742 E07200
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 55 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 03/0600Z N1830 E07242
FCST MAX WIND +24HRS: 55 KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200602/1500Z
TOO: 021420HRS IST

[doomhaMwx]

Looks like IMD upgraded while I was making the post above. This must be one of the rare cases that IMD upgrades to a TS/CS first before JTWC.

[doomhaMwx]

It's organizing fast. Probably something like 50kts now.

[doomhaMwx]

Whoa still no upgrade from JTWC. They reissued the TCFA instead.

93A INVEST 200602 1200 16.1N 71.5E IO 30 999

WTIO21 PGTW 021400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93A) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZJUN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.5N 71.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 185
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 021056Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED
AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[al78]

Whoa still no upgrade from JTWC. They reissued the TCFA instead.

I don't know what the JTWC is waiting for. That looks better than one or two hurricanes. I can't believe that is not at least a tropical depression, and most likely a tropical storm.

[aspen]

Whoa still no upgrade from JTWC. They reissued the TCFA instead.

I don't know what the JTWC is waiting for. That looks better than one or two hurricanes. I can't believe that is not at least a tropical depression, and most likely a tropical storm.

The JTWC has realized they’ve been too good lately so they’re trying to balance things out by being absolute **** with this storm.

[Kingarabian]

Whoa still no upgrade from JTWC. They reissued the TCFA instead.

I don't know what the JTWC is waiting for. That looks better than one or two hurricanes. I can't believe that is not at least a tropical depression, and most likely a tropical storm.

The JTWC has realized they’ve been too good lately so they’re trying to balance things out by being absolute **** with this storm.

Lmao. You're right. It's so sad.

[aspen]

I don't know what the JTWC is waiting for. That looks better than one or two hurricanes. I can't believe that is not at least a tropical depression, and most likely a tropical storm.

The JTWC has realized they’ve been too good lately so they’re trying to balance things out by being absolute **** with this storm.

Lmao. You're right. It's so sad.

Well, here’s another plus of the Euro blowing it with Nisarga: the JTWC won’t call a Cat 3+ storm a 40-50 kt TS.

[galaxy401]

When was the last time Mumbai got hit by a cyclone? Seems like Nisarga is hitting a part of India that doesn't usually get hit.

[doomhaMwx]

02A NISARGA 200603 0000 17.2N 72.1E IO 55 986

[doomhaMwx]

It's likely to hit land as a cyclone at this rate. Latest SATCON estimate is already at 60kts, but that was about 5hrs ago.
Fortunately for Mumbai, looks like the strongest winds will miss the city.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 06022115
SATCON: MSLP = 982 hPa MSW = 59 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 58.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 61 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 155 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0 knots Source: NA

[1900hurricane]

The 2048Z ATMS estimate was almost double the initial 1800Z JTWC analysis.

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

The eye of Nisarga is now crossing the Maharashtra coast about 120km south of Mumbai city this Wednesday afternoon IST. Now 75kts per JTWC. This one really pulled it off in the last 24 hours! Sadly, IMD is underestimating it as they only have it as a 55kts SCS as of 06Z.

02A NISARGA 200603 0600 17.9N 72.9E IO 75 975

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/IndianExpress/status/1268099863692169216

[doomhaMwx]

When was the last time Mumbai got hit by a cyclone? Seems like Nisarga is hitting a part of India that doesn't usually get hit.

If Nisarga directly hit Mumbai, but fortunately it did not, it would definitely be the strongest tropical cyclone to do so in a very long time. Many Indian media outlets have called for Nisarga to be the first tropical cyclone (I presume defined by them as at least 35kts) to hit Mumbai since record keeping began in 1891 (at least in the month of June) with reference to IMD's Cyclone Atlas. However, there are mentions of a "severe storm" in November 1948 that appears to have caused substantial impacts to the city. According to this article, analysis of IMD data shows that the 1948 system could have been at least a 65kt cyclone that passed within 100km of Mumbai, and there were similar others in 1903 and 1940.

The storm tracks below are based on JTWC data from 1979-2015. JTWC's records for the NIO does not go back as far as IMD's, but it's also clear here that Mumbai is rarely struck by tropical storms, let alone cyclones (≥65kts). Actually, the whole west coast of India rarely sees landfall probably with the exception of Gujarat state.


Image source

[mrbagyo]

[al78]

I maintain the Tropical Storm Risk website which gets its real time tropical cyclone data from the JTWC and the NHC. As expected, I have received several e-mails to the helpdesk yesterday as to why we haven't issued any alerts or put the storm on our website. Thanks JTWC, better late than never I suppose, at least it is on there at the time of landfall.