ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Appears to still be embedded in the CAG.
MIMIC-TPW (Surface to 500mb) shows main moisture infeed from the Carib across the Yucatan.
Moisture is hitting a shear gradient east of the CoC creating a large area of deep convection (evil twin).
Multiple hot towers with heavy lightning embedded in the evil twin.

[aspen]

Appears to still be embedded in the CAG.
MIMIC-TPW (Surface to 500mb) shows main moisture infeed from the Carib across the Yucatan.
Moisture is hitting a shear gradient east of the CoC creating a large area of deep convection (evil twin).
Multiple hot towers with heavy lightning embedded in the evil twin.

https://i.imgur.com/Y6JxVai.png

https://i.imgur.com/LADoERY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/L7zXlWD.png

https://i.imgur.com/MVZil9E.jpg

Could that southern blob of convection force the center to reform further south and over land, or is Cristobal too organized for that to happen?

[GCANE]

Appears to still be embedded in the CAG.
MIMIC-TPW (Surface to 500mb) shows main moisture infeed from the Carib across the Yucatan.
Moisture is hitting a shear gradient east of the CoC creating a large area of deep convection (evil twin).
Multiple hot towers with heavy lightning embedded in the evil twin.

https://i.imgur.com/Y6JxVai.png

https://i.imgur.com/LADoERY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/L7zXlWD.png

https://i.imgur.com/MVZil9E.jpg

Could that southern blob of convection force the center to reform further south and over land, or is Cristobal too organized for that to happen?

I have seen three or four of these over the years.
The blobs are always east of the CoC.
They never seem to reform the CoC under them.
Its a mystery to me the complete dynamics of these systems.

[GCANE]

Looks like it's just offshore.
Recon should begin descent in the next few minutes and have a fix in about an hour.

[Buck]

Cristobal seems to be quite the rainmaker for Campeche, Tabasco, Yucatán and Guatemala. Anyone have rainfall totals so far?

[GCANE]

Interesting features on LL Water Vapor.
Heavier convection starting to fire north of the CoC along the dry line.
Strong CAPE ridge forming north of the dry line.
Any type of MCV that may form along the dry line could keep the CoC from moving too far inland.
Looks like mesoscale features may dictate track.
Stay tuned.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1268129142446477312

[Aric Dunn]

well look at that finally moving to the SSE almost inland. just a 24 hr delay from models runs 24 hours ago.

[aspen]

Recon has entered the outer part of the storm, and we should have our first center pass within the next half hour.

[Aric Dunn]

That northerly MId level shear has done less shearing and more imparting the southerly motion the last several hours. Now the question is.. how far inalnd does it go.

it is very flat and wet for the first 100 miles or so then it will hit the mountains.

So if it is a small loop over land than back north there will be little effect on it.

[GCANE]

Recon, flying at 15K', tagged a 1000mb vort at 20.48N 91.23W

[Aric Dunn]

Must say though the overall structure and banding has improved quite a bit from last night. had it stayed over water we might have been looking at it approach hurricane strength today.

[GCANE]

Radar seems to indicate its about half-way inland.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar seems to indicate its about half-way inland.

Yeah, though the system is heavily weighted to the E and NE with deep convection as you already mentioned. this loop to the south and inland may be very short lived.

it may start getting pulled easterly scraping along the coast following the convective bursts..

[GCANE]

Recon ran through a respectible hot tower.
33 mm/hr rain rate.
37 knt surface winds.

[GCANE]

Recon now leveled off a 925mb, 2400'.

[GCANE]

Decent helicity and lightning with the convection just NE of the CoC.
Stayin alive.

[NDG]

Recon, flying at 15K', tagged a 1000mb vort at 20.48N 91.23W

IMO, that's very suspect being that it was at 15k feet and it was about to start climbing down, how can pressure be that low that far and then start rising closer to the coc as reported.

[NDG]

Definitely stronger this morning.

112930 1857N 09157W 9239 00674 9990 +179 +133 136038 040 044 027 00
113000 1856N 09158W 9248 00660 9984 +184 +133 154033 039 050 030 03
113030 1855N 09200W 9245 00657 9977 +181 +134 153037 038 045 043 00
113100 1854N 09201W 9250 00652 9974 +184 +135 159034 037 040 049 00
113130 1853N 09202W 9250 00646 9968 +186 +136 162029 033 040 046 03
113200 1852N 09204W 9251 00639 9961 +192 +137 158019 026 040 035 00
113230 1852N 09205W 9249 00638 9956 +195 +139 131013 017 039 034 03
$$

[GCANE]

Recon, flying at 15K', tagged a 1000mb vort at 20.48N 91.23W

IMO, that's very suspect being that it was at 15k feet and it was about to start climbing down, how can pressure be that low that far and then start rising closer to the coc as reported.

Could be a vort spinning off the CAG.