ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

looks like pressure could be 995 or 994 is. and the strongest winds cant be sampled at this point.

50kts last night pressure 996. couple mb lower probably just a tad higher or about the same.

[GCANE]

Wow, rain rate up to 49mm/hr very close to the CoC.
A lot of enthalpy with this one.

[GCANE]

I think it gets over that lagoon.

[NDG]

looks like pressure could be 995 or 994 is. and the strongest winds cant be sampled at this point.

50kts last night pressure 996. couple mb lower probably just a tad higher or about the same.

Good call.

113400 1848N 09208W 9247 00637 9948 +216 +146 008002 003 016 005 00
113430 1847N 09209W 9249 00634 9945 +220 +149 311004 006 011 006 00
113500 1845N 09210W 9246 00635 9944 +220 +152 315010 012 012 004 03
113530 1844N 09211W 9248 00635 9945 +221 +156 317012 012 /// /// 03
113600 1845N 09213W 9244 00640 9944 +226 +161 345013 014 013 001 00
113630 1846N 09214W 9248 00635 9944 +227 +165 358014 014 014 003 00
113700 1847N 09215W 9247 00639 9945 +229 +168 012018 020 015 004 00
113730 1848N 09216W 9252 00635 9945 +237 +171 020023 025 018 002 00

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, rain rate up to 49mm/hr very close to the CoC.
A lot of enthalpy with this one.

in a relatively small area.

[NDG]

Just 7 miles offshore.

[Aric Dunn]

Just 7 miles offshore.

https://i.imgur.com/FjQ5TNO.png

Now we see if it scrapes along the coast today.. being pulled by the convection building to the east and NE of the center.

given the slow motion. we know LLC's tend to follow the path of least resistance so wherever the strongest wind is blowing over water and convection is maintaining will be likely direction the llc will get pulled.

[NDG]

There's going to be horrific images of flooding from the Yucatan P over the next few days. This was yesterday morning.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/2PHYgaTdxXc[/youtube]

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1268150711914835968

[Astromanía]

That northerly MId level shear has done less shearing and more imparting the southerly motion the last several hours. Now the question is.. how far inalnd does it go.

it is very flat and wet for the first 100 miles or so then it will hit the mountains.

So if it is a small loop over land than back north there will be little effect on it.

What mountains?

[supercane4867]

It may weaken slower after landfall if the center decides to sit over the lagoon.

[Aric Dunn]

Nice happy little clean shot of the center with convection around it sitting just a few miles offshore.

Convection is all the to east and NE.. this Could definitely play a role in keeping this along the coast today. Similar to how it kept it moving east all day yesterday.

[NDG]

That northerly MId level shear has done less shearing and more imparting the southerly motion the last several hours. Now the question is.. how far inalnd does it go.

it is very flat and wet for the first 100 miles or so then it will hit the mountains.

So if it is a small loop over land than back north there will be little effect on it.

What mountains?

Yeah Aric, what mountains? Are you talking the mountains well to the south because in the middle of the Y P there's only rolling hills a 200-300 feet high.

[Aric Dunn]

That northerly MId level shear has done less shearing and more imparting the southerly motion the last several hours. Now the question is.. how far inalnd does it go.

it is very flat and wet for the first 100 miles or so then it will hit the mountains.

So if it is a small loop over land than back north there will be little effect on it.

What mountains?

Yeah Aric, what mountains? Are you talking the mountains well to the south because in the middle of the Y P there's only rolling hills a 200-300 feet high.

I did say for the first 100 miles.. but yes to the south.. is what I was implying.

meaning it will be fine if it does not go too far south.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1268150711914835968

I was about to mention it, here are the last two runs. As if the ensembles wanted to make the loop a lot wider than in reality.

[GCANE]

Tight little TC.
Could spin up fast under the right conditions.
Has all the hallmarks to do so: overshooting tops, layering cirrus, radial outflow, high rain-rate hot towers, etc.

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1268150711914835968

I was about to mention it, here are the last two runs. As if the ensembles wanted to make the loop a lot wider than in reality.

https://i.imgur.com/DVjmWvq.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/yx4htqb.jpg

I mentioned this yesterday and last night.. the models have been insistent on it doing this weird SW loop thing which it never did and they still keep showing.

the loop just kept getting smaller and smaller over time and shifting east.

oh and FYI 6z euro no long has loop.. just send it ese to the middle of the Yucatan almost to the NW carrib before turning north.

all the convection is off to the east over the NW carrib.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1268150711914835968

I was about to mention it, here are the last two runs. As if the ensembles wanted to make the loop a lot wider than in reality.

https://i.imgur.com/DVjmWvq.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/yx4htqb.jpg

Less of a loop will likely mean less time over land and possibly tracking over flatter areas that won’t grind down the circulation as much. This is going to weaken during landfall, but perhaps now it’ll be less so than forecast, or not be as detrimental to the storm’s overall structure.

[NDG]

It continues to deepen this morning.


122230 1845N 09210W 9248 00631 9937 +223 +186 324007 012 009 003 00
$$

[aspen]

This is probably the best-looking pre-July storm since Alex ‘16. Arthur wasn’t too bad either, but it was partially sheared at its peak; Cristobal is not.