ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Building a strong eyewall.
Very high rain rate just west of the CoC.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1268150711914835968

I was about to mention it, here are the last two runs. As if the ensembles wanted to make the loop a lot wider than in reality.

https://i.imgur.com/DVjmWvq.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/yx4htqb.jpg

I mentioned this yesterday and last night.. the models have been insistent on it doing this weird SW loop thing which it never did and they still keep showing.

the loop just kept getting smaller and smaller over time and shifting east.

oh and FYI 6z euro no long has loop.. just send it ese to the middle of the Yucatan almost to the NW carrib before turning north.

all the convection is off to the east over the NW carrib.

Yes, I know you have been mentioning it.

Interesting 06z Euro.
I need to subscribe to it again after I canceled it, I had a fallen with Ryan Maue on Twitter a few months ago, he blocked me off after I replied to one of his many political posts that he didn't like, lol. When weather.us replied to me as to why I had canceled they said he had done it by mistake, lol.

[hipshot]

It continues to deepen this morning.


122230 1845N 09210W 9248 00631 9937 +223 +186 324007 012 009 003 00
$$

Once upon a time there was a location on this site that explained or defined this kind of data among others that I see here. Can someone point me in
the right direction?

[NDG]

58 knot flight level winds!

122500 1848N 09203W 9242 00634 9944 +198 +179 149020 026 044 009 03
122530 1849N 09201W 9251 00632 9948 +185 +175 162047 051 047 013 00
122600 1849N 09200W 9115 00750 9945 +178 +169 156049 053 047 015 00
122630 1850N 09159W 8806 01064 9956 +163 +162 157054 058 049 021 00
122700 1850N 09157W 8648 01223 9964 +157 +153 159049 054 051 021 00
122730 1851N 09156W 8465 01412 9976 +149 +146 150047 051 051 032 00
122800 1851N 09154W 8440 01452 9992 +145 +138 139046 050 041 058 00
122830 1852N 09153W 8422 01475 0000 +142 +131 138038 043 041 058 00

[BYG Jacob]

Cristobal has apparently decided land interaction means nothing

[Aric Dunn]

58 knot flight level winds!

122500 1848N 09203W 9242 00634 9944 +198 +179 149020 026 044 009 03
122530 1849N 09201W 9251 00632 9948 +185 +175 162047 051 047 013 00
122600 1849N 09200W 9115 00750 9945 +178 +169 156049 053 047 015 00
122630 1850N 09159W 8806 01064 9956 +163 +162 157054 058 049 021 00
122700 1850N 09157W 8648 01223 9964 +157 +153 159049 054 051 021 00
122730 1851N 09156W 8465 01412 9976 +149 +146 150047 051 051 032 00
122800 1851N 09154W 8440 01452 9992 +145 +138 139046 050 041 058 00
122830 1852N 09153W 8422 01475 0000 +142 +131 138038 043 041 058 00

winds probably slightly higher but couldnt be sampled.

65 mph is probably what they will go with.

[aspen]

Perhaps it’s worthy of an upgrade to 55 kt and 993 mbar.

[lester]

It continues to deepen this morning.


122230 1845N 09210W 9248 00631 9937 +223 +186 324007 012 009 003 00
$$

Once upon a time there was a location on this site that explained or defined this kind of data among others that I see here. Can someone point me in
the right direction?

The NHC has a detailed explanation here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

[Extratropical94]

It continues to deepen this morning.


122230 1845N 09210W 9248 00631 9937 +223 +186 324007 012 009 003 00
$$

Once upon a time there was a location on this site that explained or defined this kind of data among others that I see here. Can someone point me in
the right direction?

Can't find the thread right now, but using this line as an example:
122230 - UTC time (12:22:30)
1845N - 18° 45' N latitude
09210W - 92° 10' W longitude
9248 - 924.8 mb flight level pressure
00631 - 631 m flight level altitude
9937 - 993.7 mb extrapolated surface pressure
+223 - +22.3°C flight level temperature
+186 - +18.6°C flight level dewpoint
324007 - 324° flight level wind direction, 7 knots flight level wind speed (30 second mean)
012 - 12 knots peak 10 second wind during a 30 second interval
009 - 9 knots peak 10 second surface wind estimation
003 - 3 mm/hr peak 10 second rain rate
00 - quality flag, 00 = everything is fine

[Aric Dunn]

Radar loop. another hour added on..

still just drifting about 10 miles offshore.

[dantonlsu]

Talk about alot of rain for those folks...

[NDG]

It continues to deepen this morning.


122230 1845N 09210W 9248 00631 9937 +223 +186 324007 012 009 003 00
$$

Once upon a time there was a location on this site that explained or defined this kind of data among others that I see here. Can someone point me in
the right direction?

Go to page 134 of the link below.

https://www.ofcm.gov/publications/nhop/2020_nhop.pdf

[aspen]

Recon is heading in for a third pass. Between the first and second, Cristobal’s pressure dropped form 994 to 993 mbar, and it moved due-south by a tiny bit, maybe not even a mile.

[NDG]

Radar loop. another hour added on..

still just drifting about 10 miles offshore.

https://i.ibb.co/yX69b1F/ezgif-com-gif-maker-8.gif

Ciudad del Carmen is getting hit bad from the torrential rains!
Half a mile visibility!

Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.51 inches Hg ( 999.4 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.4 m/s) gusting to 44 MPH (38 knots; 19.5 m/s)
Visibility: 0.50 sm ( 0.80 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

[hipshot]

It continues to deepen this morning.


122230 1845N 09210W 9248 00631 9937 +223 +186 324007 012 009 003 00
$$

Once upon a time there was a location on this site that explained or defined this kind of data among others that I see here. Can someone point me in
the right direction?

The NHC has a detailed explanation here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouthdobs_2007.shtml

Thanks

[northjaxpro]

The CoC really has not moved much at all for the past 2-3 hours. It is just sitting right at the coast or hugging it basically.
The rainfall rates down there on the MX Coast has to be at incredibly insane levels right now.

[hipshot]

Radar loop. another hour added on..

still just drifting about 10 miles offshore.

https://i.ibb.co/yX69b1F/ezgif-com-gif-maker-8.gif

Ciudad del Carmen is getting hit bad from the torrential rains!
Half a mile visibility!

Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.51 inches Hg ( 999.4 mb)
Winds: from the SE (130 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.4 m/s) gusting to 44 MPH (38 knots; 19.5 m/s)
Visibility: 0.50 sm ( 0.80 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

Thanks, that's very helpful.

[GCANE]

[NDG]

Looks like a took a jog to the SE and is right on the coast.

[MarioProtVI]

Gonna say landfall intensity is 65/993 based on the recon. Will see what NHC says at 11 or earlier pending an update.