ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

...CRISTOBAL MAKES LANDFALL IN THE STATE OF CAMPECHE, MEXICO...

8:35 AM CDT Wed Jun 3
Location: 18.7°N 92.1°W
Moving: SSE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

[Aric Dunn]

I just want to say that....

we have a SE moving ( 3rd)TS in the BOC in the first week of JUNE.... say it again.. yes SE moving in tropics.. below 23.5 north.

this fits perfectly into the year 2020 so far.. lol

[aspen]

I marked up the structure and environment of Cristobal using some of the most recent visible and WV loop frames. Overall, looking pretty good despite being right on the coast, but things will change with that trough coming in now.

[NDG]

Lots of marshland all around the Lagoon so as long as it does not move too fast and not too far inland we shouldn't see much of a weakening today.

[gfsperpendicular]

Definitely the best looking June storm in recent memory. The land under it is relatively flat and marshy so I wonder what it will look like when it comes back into the BoC.

[Aric Dunn]

Another hour added on.

looks like it is about to start rotating east again may scrape along/ near coast. it is still pretty much over water since its over that large BAY.

it looks really good right now.

[shiny-pebble]

Looking super healthy at the moment. If this was still over water I would think we would be reaching hurricane strength. Given the land is marshy, I wouldn't be surprised if we still see some strengthening, or maybe holding onto its current strength. Looks like its pushing 70 MPH

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[NDG]

I marked up the structure and environment of Cristobal using some of the most recent visible and WV loop frames. Overall, looking pretty good despite being right on the coast, but things will change with that trough coming in now.
https://i.imgur.com/OTUU892.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/Cjw8ljY.jpg

The UL trough is supposed to deepen some over the central GOM over the next day or two but then retrograde some to the west over the western GOM giving Cristobal a bit of a southerly shear as it starts tracking north, but may not be as bad as it will be tracking parallel to the shear's direction.

[GCANE]

Blob is quickly weakening.
Lightning in the TC is dropping.

[aspen]

Definitely the best looking June storm in recent memory. The land under it is relatively flat and marshy so I wonder what it will look like when it comes back into the BoC.

https://i.imgur.com/rM21zpD.jpg

Yeah, that’s the best looking pre-July system since Hurricane Alex ‘16.

It depends on how deep it goes into Mexico and how long it remains over land. If it stays on that flat marshy area, I don’t think it’ll be too harmed. Probably will stop intensifying but probably won’t collapse into a TD. However, a deeper dive or a longer stall over land (some models want it to do so for almost 48 hours) could devastate its structure and probably make it very difficult to attain hurricane status later.

[NDG]

Looks like the CoC keeps diving insland to the SE just to the wsw of Ciudad del Carmen, based on radar and their surface reports, vis down to a 1/4 mile from the heavy rains!

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 031343Z 11029KT 1/4SM +TSRA OVC006CB 24/24 A2953 RMK 60305 8/3//
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 100%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.53 inches Hg (1000.1 mb)
Winds: from the ESE (110 degrees) at 33 MPH (29 knots; 14.9 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 sm ( 0.40 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

[northjaxpro]

Definitely the best looking June storm in recent memory. The land under it is relatively flat and marshy so I wonder what it will look like when it comes back into the BoC.

https://i.imgur.com/rM21zpD.jpg

Yeah, that’s the best looking pre-July system since Hurricane Alex ‘16.

It depends on how deep it goes into Mexico and how long it remains over land. If it stays on that flat marshy area, I don’t think it’ll be too harmed. Probably will stop intensifying but probably won’t collapse into a TD. However, a deeper dive or a longer stall over land (some models want it to do so for almost 48 hours) could devastate its structure and probably make it very difficult to attain hurricane status later.

Yeah, after nearly stalling the past few hours at the coast, the CoC is finally it appears making that southward drift into Mexico. I had anticipated this happening roughly 8-12 hours ago. But, it now is occuring now that landfall has already happened.

The huge questions now going forward is a) How long the CoC will meander over land and b) How deep the CoC will penetrate into MX?

How much or whatever will be left of the core of the cyclone when it finally emerges away from the Yucatan?

We may not know the full scope or the answers to these questions possibly for at lesst a couple of more days if then.

[Aric Dunn]

another hour..
center is sitting right on the western tip of that BAY. dont get distracted by that void further south .. thats not the center.

also looks like the momentum shift more ese..



center circled in white..

[TheStormExpert]

Due to the significant increase in land interaction with Mexico and the Yucatán I'm now going with a mid-grade sheared/lopsided TS making landfall along the South-Central Louisiana coastline late Sunday/early Monday.

[EquusStorm]

The flood situation is very disturbing. Going to continue to be a catastrophe even not counting US impact.

[Steve]

Due to the significant increase in land interaction with Mexico and the Yucatán I'm now going with a mid-grade sheared/lopsided TS making landfall along the South-Central Louisiana coastline late Sunday/early Monday.

Way to go out on a limb there TSE.

[tropicwatch]

another hour..
center is sitting right on the western tip of that BAY. dont get distracted by that void further south .. thats not the center.

also looks like the momentum shift more ese..

https://i.ibb.co/bs4qfwp/ezgif-com-gif-maker-10.gif

center circled in white..

https://i.ibb.co/tm22RWn/Capture.png

It is wobble watch time. I am glad there is a radar in the area. Will be able to see if Cristobal wants to deviate from the scheduled flight path.

[Aric Dunn]

another hour..
center is sitting right on the western tip of that BAY. dont get distracted by that void further south .. thats not the center.

also looks like the momentum shift more ese..

https://i.ibb.co/bs4qfwp/ezgif-com-gif-maker-10.gif

center circled in white..

https://i.ibb.co/tm22RWn/Capture.png

It is wobble watch time. I am glad there is a radar in the area. Will be able to see if Cristobal wants to deviate from the scheduled flight path.

yeah lol.. since it has decided to deviate every time so far.. i wont be surprised if it continues to do so.

with convection off to the east and NE (weighted) seeing this curve back to the east in the coming few hours would not surprise me one bit.

[NDG]

CoC inland to the SW of Ciudad del Carmen, winds gusting to 55 mph.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 031444Z 09028G48KT 1/4SM +TSRA OVC006CB 24/23 A2951 RMK SLP993 54000 964 60215 8/3//
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.51 inches Hg ( 999.4 mb) [Sea level pressure: 999.3 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.4 m/s) gusting to 55 MPH (48 knots; 24.7 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 sm ( 0.40 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

[TheStormExpert]

The flood situation is very disturbing. Going to continue to be a catastrophe even not counting US impact.

It makes you wonder if this could easily warrant a retirement next spring.