ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

13" has already fallen in the past 24 hrs in Ciudad del Carmen!!!

 https://twitter.com/ClimaYucatan/status/1268202056134930433

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/Rod_penia/status/1268202994509787137

[Aric Dunn]

CoC inland to the SW of Ciudad del Carmen, winds gusting to 55 mph.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 031444Z 09028G48KT 1/4SM +TSRA OVC006CB 24/23 A2951 RMK SLP993 54000 964 60215 8/3//
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.51 inches Hg ( 999.4 mb) [Sea level pressure: 999.3 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.4 m/s) gusting to 55 MPH (48 knots; 24.7 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 sm ( 0.40 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

the east wind would put it south of Cuidad Del Carmen. making it right over the western part of the Bay. exactly where radar is showing it.

the red X is the location of the observation.

[TallyTracker]

If Cristobal gets all the way down into Guatemala, I’m not sure there will be much left to make it back to the Gulf. The elevations are under 200 feet in most of the area, but the distance from water for 48 hours+ should devastate the core. Of course none of this stops the crazy amounts of rain from drenching the area...

[crimi481]

Land disruption may lead to center relocation - or 2nd system forms in s. gulf?

[Steve]

Land disruption may lead to center relocation - or 2nd system forms in s. gulf?

Looks like most of the 00z and 06z models wanted to dive it into Mexico and then roll it up through the Yucatan. I'm waiting to see whether the 12z runs still do that or even possibly spin something up on the east side of the Peninsula which is the Caribbean I guess.

[bella_may]

The flood situation is very disturbing. Going to continue to be a catastrophe even not counting US impact.

They’re already saying 10+ inches are possible in SE LA and the Mississippi coast

[NDG]

CoC inland to the SW of Ciudad del Carmen, winds gusting to 55 mph.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 031444Z 09028G48KT 1/4SM +TSRA OVC006CB 24/23 A2951 RMK SLP993 54000 964 60215 8/3//
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.51 inches Hg ( 999.4 mb) [Sea level pressure: 999.3 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.4 m/s) gusting to 55 MPH (48 knots; 24.7 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 sm ( 0.40 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

the east wind would put it south of Cuidad Del Carmen. making it right over the western part of the Bay. exactly where radar is showing it.

the red X is the location of the observation.

https://i.ibb.co/Gd0ycKh/Capture.png

I put it maybe a mile further

[Aric Dunn]

CoC inland to the SW of Ciudad del Carmen, winds gusting to 55 mph.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 031444Z 09028G48KT 1/4SM +TSRA OVC006CB 24/23 A2951 RMK SLP993 54000 964 60215 8/3//
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.51 inches Hg ( 999.4 mb) [Sea level pressure: 999.3 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 32 MPH (28 knots; 14.4 m/s) gusting to 55 MPH (48 knots; 24.7 m/s)
Visibility: 0.25 sm ( 0.40 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: +TSRA (heavy rain associated with thunderstorm(s))

the east wind would put it south of Cuidad Del Carmen. making it right over the western part of the Bay. exactly where radar is showing it.

the red X is the location of the observation.

https://i.ibb.co/Gd0ycKh/Capture.png

I put it maybe a mile further

https://i.imgur.com/atAr1tt.gif

I will 1up you !! lol with the new image and place it slightly farther east ... and and overall drift is definitely to the east keeping it sort of over water.. and enough so to maintain it...

[Astromanía]

This could be the worst natural disaster in Campeche's History!, But unless this thing kills more than 100 people (I hope not) I don't see México retiring this from the name List, You know how this work. Anyway I pray for the people in Ciudad del Carmen, very Bad rain without and end so far, I never thought people there will ever experience something like this.

[gatorcane]

Looks like nothing I see today has me changing my opinion on this storm since posting about 24 hours ago. Looks like the system should lift north eventually in the Gulf and it should experience some shear keeping it in check, some east shifts in the models today are of no surprise. Might see some more shifts east when all is said and done due to shear from the SW. The GFS modeling of this storm really doesn’t look that far fetched and I see the Euro is moving closer to that solution As far as track the last couple of runs. Wouldn’t be surprised if it also comes down on intensity closer to the GFS prediction.

Bumping post from yesterday evening as no reason to change taking another look today.

[SoupBone]

Decent amount of dry air in the GoM.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1268221720093249538

[Aric Dunn]

First image, has the previous positions, dashed line is NHC forecast, white line is track the last 6 hours.

[NDG]

First image, has the previous positions, dashed line is NHC forecast, white line is track the last 6 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/JHhNtsQ/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/hXByTD8/ezgif-com-optimize-6.gif

Last night's Euro forecast point for this time is way off, I am sure the latest 12z run will be also way off eventually.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like nothing I see today has me changing my opinion on this storm since posting about 24 hours ago. Looks like the system should lift north eventually in the Gulf and it should experience some shear keeping it in check, some east shifts in the models today are of no surprise. Might see some more shifts east when all is said and done due to shear from the SW. The GFS modeling of this storm really doesn’t look that far fetched and I see the Euro is moving closer to that solution As far as track the last couple of runs. Wouldn’t be surprised if it also comes down on intensity closer to the GFS prediction.

Bumping post from yesterday evening as no reason to change taking another look today.

I agree with your post gator. Actually I don’t see this being anything but a moderate tropical storm AT BEST if in landfalls in the Northern Gulf. It’s just not going to have a lot of time over water, and the conditions in the Gulf aren’t really that great. Pretty typical for June.

[Aric Dunn]

First image, has the previous positions, dashed line is NHC forecast, white line is track the last 6 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/JHhNtsQ/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/hXByTD8/ezgif-com-optimize-6.gif

Last night's Euro forecast point for this time is way off, I am sure the latest 12z run will be also way off eventually.

https://i.imgur.com/vG3BrfQ.gif

waiting for next image to confirm but it looks like it has started wobbling back northerly more. a portion of the northern circ has crossed pass Del carmen. what is the current obs out of there i cant tell from the wind barb on my map lol?

looks like calm winds meaning it is sitting over top and half way back over water..

[psyclone]

Super early season climo is rarely denied. Nevertheless this is an impressive early season storm and (imo) another foreshock indicating we're likely to have plenty to track this year..

[Aric Dunn]

Just and FYI.

Cuidad del Carmen reporting 996MB down 3 MB from the last hour.

the center has indeed shift a tad back to the NE almost half way crossing the coast. just about right ontop of Cuidad DEl Carmen.

The report was made 20 minutes ago, at 18:10 UTC
Wind 27 kt from the East/Northeast with gusts up to 44 kt
Temperature 24°C
Humidity 94%
Pressure 996 hPa
Visibility: 0.8 km
Overcast at a height of 600 ft, Cumulonimbus.
rain

[NDG]

First image, has the previous positions, dashed line is NHC forecast, white line is track the last 6 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/JHhNtsQ/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/hXByTD8/ezgif-com-optimize-6.gif

Last night's Euro forecast point for this time is way off, I am sure the latest 12z run will be also way off eventually.

https://i.imgur.com/vG3BrfQ.gif

waiting for next image to confirm but it looks like it has started wobbling back northerly more. a portion of the northern circ has crossed pass Del carmen. what is the current obs out of there i cant tell from the wind barb on my map lol?

looks like calm winds meaning it is sitting over top and half way back over water..

It would make sense that it has wobbled back north because Ciudad del Carmen's pressure has gone down to 996mb in the past hour.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 031810Z 07027G44KT 1/2SM RA OVC006CB 24/23 A2942 RMK 8/3// VRV COND
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.42 inches Hg ( 996.4 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (70 degrees) at 31 MPH (27 knots; 13.9 m/s) gusting to 51 MPH (44 knots; 22.6 m/s)
Visibility: 0.50 sm ( 0.80 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: RA (moderate rain)