ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Last night's Euro forecast point for this time is way off, I am sure the latest 12z run will be also way off eventually.

https://i.imgur.com/vG3BrfQ.gif

waiting for next image to confirm but it looks like it has started wobbling back northerly more. a portion of the northern circ has crossed pass Del carmen. what is the current obs out of there i cant tell from the wind barb on my map lol?

looks like calm winds meaning it is sitting over top and half way back over water..

It would make sense that it has wobbled back north because Ciudad del Carmen's pressure has gone down to 996mb in the past hour.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 031810Z 07027G44KT 1/2SM RA OVC006CB 24/23 A2942 RMK 8/3// VRV COND
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.42 inches Hg ( 996.4 mb)
Winds: from the ENE (70 degrees) at 31 MPH (27 knots; 13.9 m/s) gusting to 51 MPH (44 knots; 22.6 m/s)
Visibility: 0.50 sm ( 0.80 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: RA (moderate rain)

pressure dropped 3mb 996mb with 30 plus kt winds.. means pressure is probably still around 994.
also means it has moved back to the coast more almost over Del Carmen.

[bohai]

Hi all, appear as a newbie but couldn't get logged on or change password under old so here I am. I have worked in CDC for a while. The terrain is exceptionally flat and marshy for miles around. A typical afternoon downpour can easily flood the streets in a good bit of town, getting slightly higher elevation towards the airport but not by much. The drainage in the town is almost non existent except for a few canals. I really feel for those folks as they have no where to go. Many dont even have cars. It is a very poor area. My friend who still lives there says there is 3 ft of water in many areas. Godspeed all of you in CDC for a speedy recovery.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 18.4°N 91.9°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM

[Aric Dunn]

from radar and surface obs.

the center is closer to the 7pm thursday poistion...

by tomorrow the models show that this COL setup begins to shift over the next 12 hours. So Christobal is running out of time if it is going to head farther inland.

[Aric Dunn]

drifting easterly some more. now in the middle of that big BAY. pretty clear where it is at. Not going to make the next several forecast points. looks to be skipping ahead in time.. lol

[Nimbus]

Cloud tops are starting to warm although with the flooding and saturation that isn't going to help much.
How long does it stay inland?

[jconsor]

Cristobal could set low pressure records for the central Gulf coast for Jun, or at least the first half of Jun.

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1267902132046315520




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1268110495560732672

[wayne1701]

watch for reformation of the center Northeast of the current center. Convection is blowing up NE of the current center.

[Ubuntwo]

watch for reformation of the center Northeast of the current center. Convection is blowing up NE of the current center.

this is the latest imagery from the mesoscale floater, there's no new convection blowing up near the center

[TallyTracker]

Cristobal has a very well defined center of circulation. Only weaker/poorly organized systems tend to have center relocations. I would not expect any kind of relocation of the center even in response to convective blow ups over water.

Now I have hear of the center following the convection. A significant convective blowup over water could nudge the center. I wouldn’t expect much movement though as the steering currents (or lack there of) are going to have a substantially greater impact on Cristobal’s movement.

[NDG]

Cristobal pretty much on top of Ciudad del Carmen if not over the Lagoon now.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 032044Z 06015G27KT 1SM -RA OVC006CB 25/24 A2940 RMK SLP953 57016 991 60045 8/3// COND VRB
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.40 inches Hg ( 995.7 mb) [Sea level pressure: 995.3 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.7 m/s) gusting to 31 MPH (27 knots; 13.9 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

[Siker]

Tiny burst of convection directly over the lagoon / east of the center:

[Aric Dunn]

Cristobal pretty much on top of Ciudad del Carmen if not over the Lagoon now.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 032044Z 06015G27KT 1SM -RA OVC006CB 25/24 A2940 RMK SLP953 57016 991 60045 8/3// COND VRB
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.40 inches Hg ( 995.7 mb) [Sea level pressure: 995.3 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.7 m/s) gusting to 31 MPH (27 knots; 13.9 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

Yeah it is almost offshore again. about halfway and moving a little fast. the pressure is still 994 ish so no weakening has occurred all day. If anything it has become slightly better organized lol

[gfsperpendicular]

Cristobal pretty much on top of Ciudad del Carmen if not over the Lagoon now.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 032044Z 06015G27KT 1SM -RA OVC006CB 25/24 A2940 RMK SLP953 57016 991 60045 8/3// COND VRB
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.40 inches Hg ( 995.7 mb) [Sea level pressure: 995.3 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.7 m/s) gusting to 31 MPH (27 knots; 13.9 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

Definitely appears to be over the lagoon on sat.

[MississippiWx]

Cristobal pretty much on top of Ciudad del Carmen if not over the Lagoon now.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 032044Z 06015G27KT 1SM -RA OVC006CB 25/24 A2940 RMK SLP953 57016 991 60045 8/3// COND VRB
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.40 inches Hg ( 995.7 mb) [Sea level pressure: 995.3 mb]
Winds: from the ENE (60 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.7 m/s) gusting to 31 MPH (27 knots; 13.9 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

Yeah it is almost offshore again. about halfway and moving a little fast. the pressure is still 994 ish so no weakening has occurred all day. If anything it has become slightly better organized lol

https://i.ibb.co/fXjSnjv/ezgif-com-optimize-10.gif

Yeah, the fact that it’s finding a way to remain over water could mean a lot in the longer term. Amazing how tiny mesoscale processes can mean so much in the final outcome. If nothing else, this is helping to hold the system together for a longer period of time.

[Kingarabian]

This is the best looking June GOM tropical storm I've seen. Better hope CA can pull this inland and substantially weaken it, or hope there's some shear or dry air as it moves towards the states.

[MississippiWx]

This is the best looking June GOM tropical storm I've seen. Better hope CA can pull this inland and substantially weaken it, or hope there's some shear or dry air as it moves towards the states.

Dry air will be present. That’s why structure is so important once it leaves the Yucatán. Broad circulation = dry air entrainment and weaker. Tighter circulation would allow for less ingestion of dry air and a stronger outcome. We will see.

[Kazmit]

NHC still seems very certain this will continue diving south instead of a more eastward motion skirting the coast.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC still seems very certain this will continue diving south instead of a more eastward motion skirting the coast.

well this south motion continues to get shifted east every advisory.. thats how they do it..

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC still seems very certain this will continue diving south instead of a more eastward motion skirting the coast.

I'm not sure that SE @ 3 mph is actually "diving" south.