ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Siker]

12z EPS mean is a little stronger and further west with landfall:

https://i.imgur.com/CzuaYfl.png

Stronger? This looks like the weakest cycle yet in DAYS regarding the EPS Ensembles. Majority shoe nothing more than a TS with only a handful reaching Cat.1 hurricane status.

https://i.ibb.co/0svrp1X/2-F6-D9-C94-AAE0-4-FCC-87-F5-1-E437-DC683-AF.png

Nope, last night's 00z was weaker (both cycles have been substantially weaker than the past few days). Manually counting the weathernerds spaghetti yields 30 landfalls between 30-40kt for 00z (below) vs 21 for the 12z (and note those wind forecasts are much lower than whatever scale weather.us uses to classify the intensity of each ensemble member).

[Cunxi Huang]

12z vs 00z EURO

[Dean4Storms]

They certainly are homing in on LA and depending on exactly how Cristobal comes out of the situation over land and the timing of doing so these final track forecasts could change east or west.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF is much stronger this run with intensification to hurricane in the northern gulf.

[Cunxi Huang]

AL, 03, 2020060318, 03, HWRF, 111, 291N, 920W, 64, 981, XX, 34, NEQ, 0102, 0113, 0086, 0039, 1001, 69, 26, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, , , , , 0, 0, 0, 0, THERMO PARAMS, -44, 1660, 1527, Y, 10, DT, -999

HWRF HU right before landfall...

[MississippiWx]

18z HWRF is much stronger this run with intensification to hurricane in the northern gulf.

Interesting that both the HWRF and HMON went to this stronger idea this run. They might be sniffing out a better environment/less time over land.

[Aric Dunn]

18z HWRF is much stronger this run with intensification to hurricane in the northern gulf.

Interesting that both the HWRF and HMON went to this stronger idea this run. They might be sniffing out a better environment/less time over land.

they both still have it over land for 24 plus hours.. it is just timing of the ULL and placement..

[Steve]

18z HWRF is much stronger this run with intensification to hurricane in the northern gulf.

Last night it took it down to 13N and then sort of lost it.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro says bye bye to Christobal and hello to the next named storm lol

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z Euro says bye bye to Christobal and hello to the next named storm lol

Any images?

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro says bye bye to Christobal and hello to the next named storm lol

Any images?

Just an open trough over the mountains in 30 hours..

[TheProfessor]

What the 18z Euro does is send the vorticity southwestward into the more mountainous regions where the low level circulation gets ripped to shreds. If that were to happen it would make sense. Whether that southwestward dive happens remains to be seen.

[Aric Dunn]

does anyone want to actually see the entire 18z euro ??

well Ill show you anyway..

also what did I say earlier??? only a matter of time before it just stays going to the NE... spent too much time wandering around and the trough has moved in.. :p

[canetracker]

does anyone want to actually see the entire 18z euro ??

well Ill show you anyway..

also what did I say earlier??? only a matter of time before it just stays going to the NE... spent too much time wandering around and the trough has moved in.. :p

https://i.ibb.co/X5sXJDJ/modezrpd-20200607-1200-animation.gif

Hmmmm!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

[NDG]

does anyone want to actually see the entire 18z euro ??

well Ill show you anyway..

also what did I say earlier??? only a matter of time before it just stays going to the NE... spent too much time wandering around and the trough has moved in.. :p

https://i.ibb.co/X5sXJDJ/modezrpd-20200607-1200-animation.gif

As if it gets resurrected by the Mayans lol.

[stormlover2013]

Usually 18z off time models are usually worthless outside of near term versions

[Aric Dunn]

does anyone want to actually see the entire 18z euro ??

well Ill show you anyway..

also what did I say earlier??? only a matter of time before it just stays going to the NE... spent too much time wandering around and the trough has moved in.. :p

https://i.ibb.co/X5sXJDJ/modezrpd-20200607-1200-animation.gif

As if it gets resurrected by the Mayans lol.

maybe the date was calculated wrong.. instead of 2012.. it was actually 2020.. lol

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro 18z

[PTrackerLA]

00z Spaghetti models continue to converge on Vermilion Bay. Given all the short term uncertainties with Cristobal, the steering pattern seems surprisingly locked in. Got my Costco trip out of the way today, ready for whatever transpires