ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Ciudad del Carmen an hour ago had fairly light winds with a pressure of 995mb, there is no way the CoC is to the SW of them like the latest fix by the NHC showed.

METAR for: MMCE (Ciudad Del Carmen Ar, --, MX)
Text: MMCE 032347Z 09014KT 1SM -RA OVC006CB 25/24 A2940 RMK SLP953 54000 991 60015 8/3// COND VRB
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.40 inches Hg ( 995.7 mb) [Sea level pressure: 995.3 mb]
Winds: from the E (90 degrees) at 16 MPH (14 knots; 7.2 m/s)
Visibility: 1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

nope.. radar shows it litterally was right on top of Del Carmen now it has shift slightly.

[gatorcane]

Despite that the upper-level environment does not look particularly conducive the farther north in the GOM he goes, the storm looks quite impressive and vigorous for just three days in hurricane season. It makes you wonder if this storm and the others that have formed portends and active (and potentially dangerous) season ahead.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[NDG]

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/ONgYEQk.gif

yeppers sitting pretty much right on the coast..
I have saved 65 images so far over 12 hours.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Shear from the NW has ticked up a little this evening.. that is supposed to lighten and change direction by tomorrow.. so assuming it does not go inland this will likely hold its core together.

[Pressure]

It is to be expected, but Cristobal appears more ragged on radar as it completes a slight SW jog. We shall see what becomes of it tomorrow. Not much movement happening in the next day or so.

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/ONgYEQk.gif

yeppers sitting pretty much right on the coast..
I have saved 65 images so far over 12 hours.. lol

https://i.ibb.co/XYGyKBY/ezgif-com-optimize-13.gif

Nice job!

[Aric Dunn]

watch for the NW shear to relax overnight and this would likely move offshore.. still just doing small looooooooopppppsssss

lol

[Aric Dunn]

Ok last loop for the night.

Christobal is halfway through it's 3rd loop for the day. will swing east then north again... by which time the upper flow should shift from NW to more westerly which would likely help with the start of the northerly motion.

could happen sooner. right now the center is trying to keep up with all the convective bursts and doing loops.

[aspen]

Based on how ragged it’s becoming, I’m starting to doubt its core is going to be in decent shape once it moves offshore.

[gfsperpendicular]

I am curious as to why the NHC predicts even more SE motion when this thing has basically stopped moving. What's stopping it from just moving north from where it is now?

[Ubuntwo]

Based on how ragged it’s becoming, I’m starting to doubt its core is going to be in decent shape once it moves offshore.

Yeah it looks pretty rough and tumbled on radar already... another day of this and hardly anything's going to be left of the inner core

[aspen]

I am curious as to why the NHC predicts even more SE moron when this thing has basically stopped moving. What's stopping it from just moving north from where it is now?

Why are you calling SE a moron? What did it ever do to you?

All jokes aside, it’s kind of a coin toss trying to determine the short-term motion of Cristobal. It’s over land, has been defying model positions for the last two days, and is at the mercy of weak steering currents. It can go anywhere it wants....by like a few miles in any direction. Those few miles will make a huge difference in how much (if any) of an inner core is left over and how much it’ll be able to intensify.

[TheProfessor]

The storm has definitely been moving ssw the past few hours. If it isn't doing a loop and it ends up hitting the mountains that llc is toast.

[jasons2k]

I am curious as to why the NHC predicts even more SE moron when this thing has basically stopped moving. What's stopping it from just moving north from where it is now?

Why are you calling SE a moron? What did it ever do to you?

All jokes aside, it’s kind of a coin toss trying to determine the short-term motion of Cristobal. It’s over land, has been defying model positions for the last two days, and is at the mercy of weak steering currents. It can go anywhere it wants....by like a few miles in any direction. Those few miles will make a huge difference in how much (if any) of an inner core is left over and how much it’ll be able to intensify.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure he meant "motion"

[Ubuntwo]

The storm has definitely been moving ssw the past few hours. If it isn't doing a loop and it ends up hitting the mountains that llc is toast.

The 12z euro had a SSW motion followed by a stall and turn to the SE until the Guatemalan border, drawn out over a day. Just one solution but that would avoid significant interaction with mountainous terrain.

[ConvergenceZone]

Almost ready to call it Toast, but I'll give it a bit more time............

[Steve]

Almost ready to call it Toast, but I'll give it a bit more time............

We'll see. ECMWF has it 24.75 / 90.5 and at 991 mb at 72 hours, so that's a hurricane or close in the central Gulf. Might be some quality toast.

[djones65]

Almost ready to call it Toast, but I'll give it a bit more time............

We'll see. ECMWF has it 24.75 / 90.5 and at 991 mb at 72 hours, so that's a hurricane or close in the central Gulf. Might be some quality toast.

Steve,
I really like your new avatar!

Cheers!!!

[GCANE]

Position estimate, 3 hours ago, using multi-satellite IR analysis: