ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

AMSU temperature analysis shows the core remarkably well intact.

[wxman57]

Cristobal is behaving well. Moved well inland and is now a depression. Should emerge off the NE Yucatan Friday evening and accelerate north, making landfall mid LA coast Sunday night. It's large structure should prevent rapid strengthening. Absence of a strong core should keep it from reaching hurricane strength, though we can't rule that out. Still looks like a faster-moving version of Frances in 1998. Time for work. Day 10 (in a row) with 7 more to go...

[GCANE]

Looks like the gyre may be organizing a bit more.
Seeing more moisture flow from the BoC across the IoT into the BoT.

[wx98]

I am curious as to why the NHC predicts even more SE motion when this thing has basically stopped moving. What's stopping it from just moving north from where it is now?

It appears to have moved SE overnight closer to the Guatemala border, so I’d say they got it pretty close

[wx98]

Cristobal is behaving well. Moved well inland and is now a depression. Should emerge off the NE Yucatan Friday evening and accelerate north, making landfall mid LA coast Sunday night. It's large structure should prevent rapid strengthening. Absence of a strong core should keep it from reaching hurricane strength, though we can't rule that out. Still looks like a faster-moving version of Frances in 1998. Time for work. Day 10 (in a row) with 7 more to go...

Still a 40 mph storm operationally. Probably not for long though.

[Aric Dunn]

Lets see what we have before my coffee..

well I see it is not over Cuba yet... lol

[Aric Dunn]

I see christobal dropped south some more but is still forcing the models to play catch up.. apparently he does not like to follow directions..

[TheStormExpert]

Cristobal is behaving well. Moved well inland and is now a depression. Should emerge off the NE Yucatan Friday evening and accelerate north, making landfall mid LA coast Sunday night. It's large structure should prevent rapid strengthening. Absence of a strong core should keep it from reaching hurricane strength, though we can't rule that out. Still looks like a faster-moving version of Frances in 1998. Time for work. Day 10 (in a row) with 7 more to go...

I thought a few days ago when the vast majority of the EPS Ensembles were showing hurricane strength that Cristobal would have no problem becoming at least a Cat.1. Now I highly doubt that’ll happen, but stranger things have happened so you can’t rule it out until it’s over.

[mrbagyo]

I'm just trippin...
What if Cristobal degenerates and its remnants emerge back in the Gulf of Tejuantepec (EPAC) then reintensifies into a TC...
Then makes another U turn and makes landfall in Mexico the final time, degenerates again into an LPA and its remnants FINALLY emerge back again in the Gulf of Mexico and intensify to a TC once more.
How on earth would the NHC name it? nyeahahaha.

[Aric Dunn]

If it stays south for another 48 hours like the 6z Euro and others there will be no hope for it except a minimal TS.

if it is down there that long than the only hope would be for it to swing farther east and redevelops in the NW carrib or north of the Yucatan Channel so that it is not entangled with the ULL in the northern gulf.

the models just keep pushing back this north motion over and over..

[Dean4Storms]

Some shifts overnight in the GFS, ECM to the east with the LA landfall and also note the numerous UKMET Ensembles and Mean with a much more NE track up in the Gulf than the others.
Has me wondering about the westerly shear that it should encounter over the southern and central GOM that the MLC gets displaced to the east of the LLC and what they are seeing is the LLC is getting pulled a bit eastward at times toward a displaced MLC to its east. How many times have we seen that with these early season struggling LLC's in the Gulf?

[euro6208]

No chance at all. It will weaken to a depression possibly a remnant low [dissipate overland]. If it does manages to survive and head north, it'll be another weak TS.

[bella_may]

Should start moving north soon. The NHC has been pretty spot on despite what some in here think

[Stormcenter]

It’s pretty much following the script per NHC.
That being said, I would not assume anything until
it’s fully back in the GOM.

[supercane4867]

Doesn't look that bad on satellite at the moment. I think it may start generating more convection again once the center hits water.



Historical flashback: TS Marco in 2008 became a TC over the lagoon.

[jasons2k]

I think the NHC has this one pinned-down.

Here is the latest from Jeff Linder:

TS Cristobal moves slowly over southern MX

Tropical storm conditions will spread northward toward the US Gulf coast late this weekend.

Discussion:

Cristobal has now been inland for almost 24 hours along the southern Mexican coast with Mexican radar data showing a slow decay of the inner core of the system. The system has drifted toward the SE at around 2-3mph since landfall. Convective banding remains extensive on the eastern side of the circulation, but the overall organization of the system is decaying from interacting with land. It is likely the Cristobal will be downgraded to a tropical depression later this morning.

Track:

Cristobal is meandering to the SE at a slow crawl and a slow eastward motion is expected today with the center remaining over the land areas of Mexico. High pressure building over western TX today and Friday will help carve out a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico while at the same time high pressure will build over the Atlantic Ocean. These two features will begin to induce a south to north steering flow across Cristobal on Friday and the system will begin to lift northward along the western coast of the Yucatan Friday and then into the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Global forecast models are showing extraordinary agreement in the forecast track reasoning with very little spread through the 5 days period, however it remains unclear where and with what structure Cristobal will move off the Mexican coast and that could change the longer term forecast track some. Additionally, how fast Cristobal begins to move northward could also alter the forecast track.

The current official NHC forecast brings Cristobal northward starting on Friday and as the system reaching the US Gulf coast late Sunday into Monday. While the most likely track is toward the SC LA coast, interest from SE TX to the FL panhandle should continue to closely monitor the system for any changes.

Intensity:

The well defined inner core of Cristobal is becoming significantly disrupted by the land interaction over Mexico and with another 24 hours over land, it is unclear what exactly will be left of the surface circulation. Due to the land interaction, global models have generally lessened the risk of Cristobal becoming a hurricane as the system moves northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, it now appears Cristobal will have some significant interaction with the upper level trough forecasted over the Gulf of Mexico allowing shear from the SW and WSW and dry air to wrap into the circulation over the weekend. Factors do not appear overly favorable for development as Cristobal crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The current official NHC forecast brings Cristobal northward as a tropical storm.

It should be noted that the land and upper trough interaction will likely result in an expansive area of tropical storm force winds this weekend over a large portion of the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Impacts are expected to be well removed…especially to the east…of the actual surface center.

[GCANE]

Track is nearly due north once it hits the water.
Secondary Coriolis forcing may make this stronger than anticipated as it treks across the GOM.

[wxman57]

Cristobal is behaving well. Moved well inland and is now a depression. Should emerge off the NE Yucatan Friday evening and accelerate north, making landfall mid LA coast Sunday night. It's large structure should prevent rapid strengthening. Absence of a strong core should keep it from reaching hurricane strength, though we can't rule that out. Still looks like a faster-moving version of Frances in 1998. Time for work. Day 10 (in a row) with 7 more to go...

Still a 40 mph storm operationally. Probably not for long though.

Calling it a 40 mph storm doesn't make it one. I suspect the NHC will acknowledge that it's a TD in the next hour. Landfall near Grand Isle, LA Sunday evening. Don't focus on the center, as there may not be much strong wind near the center.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to TD at 11 AM:

Tropical Depression CRISTOBAL
As of 12:00 UTC Jun 04, 2020:

Location: 17.6°N 91.2°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: 40 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM

[crimi481]

Flooding rains here in SW Florida - lots more to come. That big blob off N. Coast Yucatan shredding bands heading N.E.