ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 041128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.AVIATION...

Mainly MVFR/IFR fog and/or visibilities can be found early this morning
at several TAF sites. Expect improving conditions as the early morning
hours progress with VFR by the 16Z-18Z time period. Daytime heating
should help to generate some afternoon SHRA/TSRA, and whatever develops
will weaken and dissipate early in the evening.

42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/

SHORT TERM [Today through Friday]...

Areas of low clouds and fog have developed across the area early this
morning. This trend is expected to continue until around or shortly
after sunrise. Most locations will see partly cloudy skies today with
afternoon temperatures expected to peak in the lower 90s inland and
in the upper 80s at the coast. Daytime heating could generate some
showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon, but think coverage
will be a lot less than what the area saw yesterday due partly to
lower precipitable water values. Anything that does develop will
weaken and dissipate around or shortly after sunrise, and look for
low temperatures tonight to be in the the low to mid 70s inland and
close to 80 at the coast. Tomorrow should be a little drier and a
little warmer. 42

LONG TERM [Friday Night through Wednesday]...

The long term discussion will continue to be dominated by the track
of Tropical Storm Cristobal. By Friday evening, Cristobal (or what`s
left of Cristobal after its multi-day land interaction) should have
started its northward movement off of the Yucatan Peninsula and into
the Gulf. Where it goes from here will depend on the strength and
location of a ridge of high pressure that is over western Texas on
Friday. This ridge is what is expected to keep Cristobal from
tracking into the western Gulf and potentially steering it into the
northern Gulf Coast late Sunday. This would bring minimal impacts to
SE Texas with some of the outer rainbands reaching the eastern half
of the CWA late Sunday into Monday. However, be aware that there is
still considerable uncertainty in the track during this time, so
please continue to monitor the forecast in the coming days. If the
high pressure remains a bit further west, or if Cristobal hangs
around the Yucatan longer than expected, then Cristobal may slide
left of track closer to SE Texas.

Looking beyond Cristobal, the region is looking to be in store for a
very hot start to the workweek. High temperatures Monday through
Wednesday look to be in the mid to upper 90s across the area with
the potential of record high temperatures on Tuesday. Now if
Cristobal ends up tracking further west, then these temperatures may
be a bit overdone.

Fowler

MARINE...

Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds can be expected
through the end of the work week. Increasing winds (swinging around
from the northeast to north to northwest to west to southwest) along
with building seas and an increased risk of rip currents are anticipated
over the weekend and into the start of next week as Tropical Storm Cristobal
moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico waters and makes an expected
landfall along the Louisiana coast. Based on the current track and
intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center, longer period
swells (4 to 8 foot range), an increase in rip currents, increasing
tides (around 1 to 2 feet above normal) and small craft advisories
can all be expected across the Upper Texas Coastal Waters. However,
Cristobal`s future forecast still remains uncertain, and any deviation
to the right or left of the current projections could result in a very
different forecast for the area. Mariners should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Cristobal. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 73 93 73 94 / 10 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 91 74 93 74 94 / 20 0 20 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 87 78 88 / 10 0 10 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[GCANE]

Looks like it moved about as far south as its going to.

[tailgater]

Looking at the wider view of satellite and TPC loops , this system is looking more and more like a gyre again as the old Llc start getting stretched out. Making me think it will have a harder time wrapping up into a hurricane before reaching the North central Gulf coast

[TheStormExpert]

Kudos to the GFS for not anticipating significant strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico if this holds true.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1268540504297308161

[Aric Dunn]

from sat and radar.. it is now almost halfway between BOC and the NW Carrib.. COnvection building well north in the southern Gulf and Yucatan Channel. if it get too much farther east and convection builds in the NW carrib.. we will have to( not joking) watch for redevelopment there.. ( remember the original old runs of the models ?? )

[Stormcenter]

That is definitely on the table as a possibility.

from sat and radar.. it is now almost halfway between BOC and the NW Carrib.. COnvection building well north in the southern Gulf and Yucatan Channel. if it get too much farther east and convection builds in the NW carrib.. we will have to( not joking) watch for redevelopment there.. ( remember the original old runs of the models ?? )

[crimi481]

Not sure where it all goes, but we have thunderstorms and floodinG rains here in Venice Florida. Strong bands approaching from S.W

[wx98]

Starting to turn a little more easterly:

10:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 4
Location: 17.6°N 91.0°W
Moving: ESE at 3 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

[TheStormExpert]

I think Hurricane Isidore in 2002 is the best analog storm I can find in terms of going into Mexico and stalling for several days before loosing its compact structure and heading north through the Gulf of Mexico and striking SE Louisiana as a weak/broad Tropical Storm. Time of year is off by three months as this happened in mid-September that year.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isidore

[sittingduck]

Not sure where it all goes, but we have thunderstorms and floodinG rains here in Venice Florida. Strong bands approaching from S.W

Venice here also. When I look at the satellite loops it sure appears that these storms are coming up from there. And after the last few days we really don't need this rain.

[TheStormExpert]

from sat and radar.. it is now almost halfway between BOC and the NW Carrib.. COnvection building well north in the southern Gulf and Yucatan Channel. if it get too much farther east and convection builds in the NW carrib.. we will have to( not joking) watch for redevelopment there.. ( remember the original old runs of the models ?? )

That would be something if it redeveloped in the NW Caribbean as no models at the moment are showing that. I know at one point they did, especially the GFS and a few others. I’m not anticipating that but you can’t rule anything out.

[crimi481]

That blob off n. Yucatan is expanding. We may need a Gondola here in "Venice" lol

[aspen]

At this state, with the original center weakening over land and convection blossoming over the northern Yucatán, could we see a center reformation or shift?

Also, I’m getting intrigued by the convection that’s made its way into the EPac. Maybe the CAG might try and spin something else up....

[crimi481]

Torrential rain here. My pool is full. OMG. Yes that blob is concerning

[psyclone]

The heavy rain over florida has been well modeled and expected no matter what took place with Cristobal. The more Cristobal unravels the better the chance of even more...especially if dry air invades from the west and displaces a ribbon of extreme moisture farther east over florida as it makes it's way north through the gulf. The likelihood of that is probably higher since the system has degraded over land. The consistent theme has been a landfall in LA and a broad swath of heavy rain potential for anyone east of there. probably some double digit multi day totals for someone.

[Aric Dunn]

A little Eddy just got spit out of the convection north of the Yucatan.. a sign that things are a-changing. as Cristobal's circ starts breaking down over the higher terrain start watching wherever convection persists.

[wxman57]

Sat pic with obs. Circulation fairly weak over the Yucatan. Pressure fairly high in the squalls near the northern Yucatan. I'm not sure how long the weak LLC inland will survive. For the past week, models have predicted the center to move inland yesterday then possibly dissipate inland, followed by a new low forming near the NW Yucatan on Friday. Won't change the eventual impact much. Note that on the NHC track you shouldn't draw a straight line between the 72 hrs and 84 hrs track points (across Morgan City or east Vermilion Bay). The center may get almost to the coast before it jogs NW. Good news is that there may not be any real strong wind near the center (no core). TS winds may reach all the way to the AL coast Sunday.

[MississippiWx]

Sat pic with obs. Circulation fairly weak over the Yucatan. Pressure fairly high in the squalls near the northern Yucatan. I'm not sure how long the weak LLC inland will survive. For the past week, models have predicted the center to move inland yesterday then possibly dissipate inland, followed by a new low forming near the NW Yucatan on Friday. Won't change the eventual impact much. Note that on the NHC track you shouldn't draw a straight line between the 72 hrs and 84 hrs track points (across Morgan City or east Vermilion Bay). The center may get almost to the coast before it jogs NW. Good news is that there may not be any real strong wind near the center (no core). TS winds may reach all the way to the AL coast Sunday.

http://wxman57.com/images/Cristobal1.JPG

I think you could make the argument that models are showing a second storm developing and the storm that hits the Gulf Coast could actually be Dolly.

[wxman57]

Sat pic with obs. Circulation fairly weak over the Yucatan. Pressure fairly high in the squalls near the northern Yucatan. I'm not sure how long the weak LLC inland will survive. For the past week, models have predicted the center to move inland yesterday then possibly dissipate inland, followed by a new low forming near the NW Yucatan on Friday. Won't change the eventual impact much. Note that on the NHC track you shouldn't draw a straight line between the 72 hrs and 84 hrs track points (across Morgan City or east Vermilion Bay). The center may get almost to the coast before it jogs NW. Good news is that there may not be any real strong wind near the center (no core). TS winds may reach all the way to the AL coast Sunday.

http://wxman57.com/images/Cristobal1.JPG

I think you could make the argument that models are showing a second storm developing and the storm that hits the Gulf Coast could actually be Dolly.

That's what I was arguing early this week. Cristobal dies over MX and Dolly forms by NW Yucatan. Thought it would be simpler to follow the NHC's lead and indicate only 1 storm. I don't think there's any way the NHC will declare Cristobal dissipated and begin advisories on Dolly, even though, technically, that might be more correct.

[jasons2k]

I’m seeing a lot more “chatter” on the interwebs about the possibility of Cristobal’s core dissipating and a new low, possilbility “Dolly” forming in the Gulf of Honduras.