ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Is there some issue with Satellite views from Tropical Tidbits? Am at work and just catching up, just in case this has been brought up already.
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Seeing a couple north Yucatan stations briefly reporting west winds, most likely due to the heavy convection.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
18z Best Track in Guatemala / Yucatán border:

Location: 17.6°N 90.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Sat pic with obs. Circulation fairly weak over the Yucatan. Pressure fairly high in the squalls near the northern Yucatan. I'm not sure how long the weak LLC inland will survive. For the past week, models have predicted the center to move inland yesterday then possibly dissipate inland, followed by a new low forming near the NW Yucatan on Friday. Won't change the eventual impact much. Note that on the NHC track you shouldn't draw a straight line between the 72 hrs and 84 hrs track points (across Morgan City or east Vermilion Bay). The center may get almost to the coast before it jogs NW. Good news is that there may not be any real strong wind near the center (no core). TS winds may reach all the way to the AL coast Sunday.
http://wxman57.com/images/Cristobal1.JPG
So if the circulation dissipates and a new low forms wouldn’t that low take the next name on the list (Dolly)?
I remember saying a few days ago how we may see two separate named storms out of this.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track in Guatemala / Yucatán border:Location: 17.6°N 90.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
https://i.imgur.com/CipDsAc.png
That’s quite far inland, what does the topography of that area look like?
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Did not realize how far inland it was.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:MississippiWx wrote:wxman57 wrote:Sat pic with obs. Circulation fairly weak over the Yucatan. Pressure fairly high in the squalls near the northern Yucatan. I'm not sure how long the weak LLC inland will survive. For the past week, models have predicted the center to move inland yesterday then possibly dissipate inland, followed by a new low forming near the NW Yucatan on Friday. Won't change the eventual impact much. Note that on the NHC track you shouldn't draw a straight line between the 72 hrs and 84 hrs track points (across Morgan City or east Vermilion Bay). The center may get almost to the coast before it jogs NW. Good news is that there may not be any real strong wind near the center (no core). TS winds may reach all the way to the AL coast Sunday.
http://wxman57.com/images/Cristobal1.JPG
I think you could make the argument that models are showing a second storm developing and the storm that hits the Gulf Coast could actually be Dolly.
That's what I was arguing early this week. Cristobal dies over MX and Dolly forms by NW Yucatan. Thought it would be simpler to follow the NHC's lead and indicate only 1 storm. I don't think there's any way the NHC will declare Cristobal dissipated and begin advisories on Dolly, even though, technically, that might be more correct.
Disregard my first question!

This would surely make for a good plot twist especially considering TWC keeps talking about Cristobal affecting the northern Gulf Coast.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track in Guatemala / Yucatán border:Location: 17.6°N 90.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM
https://i.imgur.com/CipDsAc.png
I’m surprised the pressure is still that low with it being so far inland
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I have to say, I'm surprised that Cristobal drifted as far inland as he did. I honestly expected a northward tug following the stationary movement of last night.
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.


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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
This storm could have a lot more moisture with it than Cindy. IMO
quote="weathaguyry"]Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.
http://tropicwatch.info/cindy0621171947.jpg[/quote]
quote="weathaguyry"]Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.
http://tropicwatch.info/cindy0621171947.jpg[/quote]
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Strong tower firing off just east of Campeche.
4000 CAPE SW of Cozumel.
4000 CAPE SW of Cozumel.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
As the vorticity for Cristobal has moved southward, some vorticity has been shot northwestward towards the tip of the Yucatan and into the Gulf. If Cristobal's vorticity weakens you could see this vorticity take over with the help of convection and form a new storm in the Gulf. There's also a chance that this vorticity forces what's left of Cristobal kick to the east-northeast and into the Gulf of Honduras where Cristobal could reorganize. Another scenario is that they could keep looping around each other up the Yucatan until one becomes dominant again. A lot of tiny things are at play here that could greatly affect the forecast.




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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Stormcenter wrote:This storm could have a lot more moisture with it than Cindy. IMOweathaguyry wrote:Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.
http://tropicwatch.info/cindy0621171947.jpg
Cindy was a joke for Louisiana unless you were hundreds of miles away in the Florida panhandle. The Euro modeled depiction of Cristobal is worlds away from Cindy's appearance. I'm expecting Cristobal to pack more of a punch than "Hurricane" Barry last July and there's a good chance the pressure will be lower than Barry's peak of 993mb.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Strong UL Trough in the GOM.
Chance that a PV Streamer may initiate a new TC genesis.
Upper-level PV streamers that fracture into cutoff lows account for 13% of monsoon gyre formation events, which can thereafter contribute to TC development.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.117 ... -14-0106.1



Chance that a PV Streamer may initiate a new TC genesis.
Upper-level PV streamers that fracture into cutoff lows account for 13% of monsoon gyre formation events, which can thereafter contribute to TC development.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.117 ... -14-0106.1



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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
PTrackerLA wrote:Stormcenter wrote:This storm could have a lot more moisture with it than Cindy. IMOweathaguyry wrote:Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.
http://tropicwatch.info/cindy0621171947.jpg
Cindy was a joke for Louisiana unless you were hundreds of miles away in the Florida panhandle. The Euro modeled depiction of Cristobal is worlds away from Cindy's appearance. I'm expecting Cristobal to pack more of a punch than "Hurricane" Barry last July and there's a good chance the pressure will be lower than Barry's peak of 993mb.
There will be some more moisture to work with than Cindy had, but the Euro's forecast seems dependent on the current LLC never dying out and redeveloping in the BOC. I know the Euro has some bias with keeping systems too strong over land, as Levi Cowan mentioned in his most recent video. If the LLC can somehow survive the mountainous terrain near Guatemala and remain intact while moving offshore, the Euro solution of a strong TS/weak Cat 1 would be plausible. However IMO, it is more likely that the LLC dies out and the circulation becomes very broad before moving back offshore, and broad circulations often are very susceptible to dry air entrainment, even if the surrounding environment isn't terribly dry.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Slow northerly heading has slowly begun, IMO.
Structure still looks good over all.

Structure still looks good over all.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The little naked swirl that just moved off into the BOC must have encountered shear?
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion
From the 4pm update: Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification
is expected to begin late Friday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
Some additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification
is expected to begin late Friday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
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