ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#761 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:34 pm

Is there some issue with Satellite views from Tropical Tidbits? Am at work and just catching up, just in case this has been brought up already.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#762 Postby GCANE » Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:44 pm

Seeing a couple north Yucatan stations briefly reporting west winds, most likely due to the heavy convection.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#763 Postby GCANE » Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:51 pm

Gyre is definitely tightening up.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#764 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 04, 2020 1:56 pm

18z Best Track in Guatemala / Yucatán border:

Location: 17.6°N 90.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#765 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:20 pm

wxman57 wrote:Sat pic with obs. Circulation fairly weak over the Yucatan. Pressure fairly high in the squalls near the northern Yucatan. I'm not sure how long the weak LLC inland will survive. For the past week, models have predicted the center to move inland yesterday then possibly dissipate inland, followed by a new low forming near the NW Yucatan on Friday. Won't change the eventual impact much. Note that on the NHC track you shouldn't draw a straight line between the 72 hrs and 84 hrs track points (across Morgan City or east Vermilion Bay). The center may get almost to the coast before it jogs NW. Good news is that there may not be any real strong wind near the center (no core). TS winds may reach all the way to the AL coast Sunday.

http://wxman57.com/images/Cristobal1.JPG

So if the circulation dissipates and a new low forms wouldn’t that low take the next name on the list (Dolly)?

I remember saying a few days ago how we may see two separate named storms out of this. :wink:
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#766 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track in Guatemala / Yucatán border:

Location: 17.6°N 90.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

https://i.imgur.com/CipDsAc.png

That’s quite far inland, what does the topography of that area look like?
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#767 Postby dantonlsu » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:24 pm

Did not realize how far inland it was.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#768 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:24 pm

wxman57 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Sat pic with obs. Circulation fairly weak over the Yucatan. Pressure fairly high in the squalls near the northern Yucatan. I'm not sure how long the weak LLC inland will survive. For the past week, models have predicted the center to move inland yesterday then possibly dissipate inland, followed by a new low forming near the NW Yucatan on Friday. Won't change the eventual impact much. Note that on the NHC track you shouldn't draw a straight line between the 72 hrs and 84 hrs track points (across Morgan City or east Vermilion Bay). The center may get almost to the coast before it jogs NW. Good news is that there may not be any real strong wind near the center (no core). TS winds may reach all the way to the AL coast Sunday.

http://wxman57.com/images/Cristobal1.JPG


I think you could make the argument that models are showing a second storm developing and the storm that hits the Gulf Coast could actually be Dolly.


That's what I was arguing early this week. Cristobal dies over MX and Dolly forms by NW Yucatan. Thought it would be simpler to follow the NHC's lead and indicate only 1 storm. I don't think there's any way the NHC will declare Cristobal dissipated and begin advisories on Dolly, even though, technically, that might be more correct.

Disregard my first question! :lol:

This would surely make for a good plot twist especially considering TWC keeps talking about Cristobal affecting the northern Gulf Coast.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#769 Postby bella_may » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z Best Track in Guatemala / Yucatán border:

Location: 17.6°N 90.9°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

https://i.imgur.com/CipDsAc.png


I’m surprised the pressure is still that low with it being so far inland
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#770 Postby Hurricane Mike » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:29 pm

I have to say, I'm surprised that Cristobal drifted as far inland as he did. I honestly expected a northward tug following the stationary movement of last night.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#771 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:34 pm

Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.

Image
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#772 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:39 pm

This storm could have a lot more moisture with it than Cindy. IMO

quote="weathaguyry"]Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.

http://tropicwatch.info/cindy0621171947.jpg[/quote]
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#773 Postby GCANE » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:44 pm

Strong tower firing off just east of Campeche.
4000 CAPE SW of Cozumel.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#774 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:48 pm

As the vorticity for Cristobal has moved southward, some vorticity has been shot northwestward towards the tip of the Yucatan and into the Gulf. If Cristobal's vorticity weakens you could see this vorticity take over with the help of convection and form a new storm in the Gulf. There's also a chance that this vorticity forces what's left of Cristobal kick to the east-northeast and into the Gulf of Honduras where Cristobal could reorganize. Another scenario is that they could keep looping around each other up the Yucatan until one becomes dominant again. A lot of tiny things are at play here that could greatly affect the forecast.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#775 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jun 04, 2020 2:52 pm

Stormcenter wrote:This storm could have a lot more moisture with it than Cindy. IMO

weathaguyry wrote:Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.

http://tropicwatch.info/cindy0621171947.jpg


Cindy was a joke for Louisiana unless you were hundreds of miles away in the Florida panhandle. The Euro modeled depiction of Cristobal is worlds away from Cindy's appearance. I'm expecting Cristobal to pack more of a punch than "Hurricane" Barry last July and there's a good chance the pressure will be lower than Barry's peak of 993mb.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#776 Postby GCANE » Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:21 pm

Strong UL Trough in the GOM.
Chance that a PV Streamer may initiate a new TC genesis.

Upper-level PV streamers that fracture into cutoff lows account for 13% of monsoon gyre formation events, which can thereafter contribute to TC development.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.117 ... -14-0106.1


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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#777 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:24 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:This storm could have a lot more moisture with it than Cindy. IMO

weathaguyry wrote:Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.

http://tropicwatch.info/cindy0621171947.jpg


Cindy was a joke for Louisiana unless you were hundreds of miles away in the Florida panhandle. The Euro modeled depiction of Cristobal is worlds away from Cindy's appearance. I'm expecting Cristobal to pack more of a punch than "Hurricane" Barry last July and there's a good chance the pressure will be lower than Barry's peak of 993mb.


There will be some more moisture to work with than Cindy had, but the Euro's forecast seems dependent on the current LLC never dying out and redeveloping in the BOC. I know the Euro has some bias with keeping systems too strong over land, as Levi Cowan mentioned in his most recent video. If the LLC can somehow survive the mountainous terrain near Guatemala and remain intact while moving offshore, the Euro solution of a strong TS/weak Cat 1 would be plausible. However IMO, it is more likely that the LLC dies out and the circulation becomes very broad before moving back offshore, and broad circulations often are very susceptible to dry air entrainment, even if the surrounding environment isn't terribly dry.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#778 Postby NDG » Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:29 pm

Slow northerly heading has slowly begun, IMO.
Structure still looks good over all.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#779 Postby Nimbus » Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:36 pm

The little naked swirl that just moved off into the BOC must have encountered shear?
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#780 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:47 pm

From the 4pm update: Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification
is expected to begin late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
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