ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[NDG]

Doesn’t even look tropical when it landfalls in LA as shown by 12Z GFS simulation. All the rainfall and any winds are hundreds of miles east of landfall over Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/dQxNBKcN/gfs-ir-watl-14.png

Unlike the 12z Euro which paints a different picture.

[MississippiWx]

Doesn’t even look tropical when it landfalls in LA as shown by 12Z GFS simulation. All the rainfall and any winds are hundreds of miles east of landfall over Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/dQxNBKcN/gfs-ir-watl-14.png

Unlike the 12z Euro which paints a different picture.

https://i.imgur.com/uvOgO23.gif

I think the GFS is overdoing the shear just a bit. The storm will be moving in the same direction as the upper level winds which would limit total impact.

[Wx_Warrior]

Rain event.

[Wx_Warrior]

Euro 12z ensembles

[dantonlsu]

Euro 12z ensembles

[url]https://i.ibb.co/8snzYSG/Screen-Shot-2020-06-04-at-2-55-45-PM.png [/url]

Scooting left..

[Cpv17]

Euro 12z ensembles

[url]https://i.ibb.co/8snzYSG/Screen-Shot-2020-06-04-at-2-55-45-PM.png [/url]

Scooting left..

Sometimes tropical systems never cease to amaze me. They’re so fun to track. I’d say we no longer have a tight consensus like we did yesterday.

[NDG]

A closer look at the 12z Euro ensembles with their shift to the left.

[TheStormExpert]

Most 12z Euro Ensembles keep Cristobal as a TS heading into coastal Louisiana. As someone said on the discussion page TS Cindy from 2017 is also a good analog in terms of likely strength at landfall.

[Steve]

Euro 12z ensembles

[url]https://i.ibb.co/8snzYSG/Screen-Shot-2020-06-04-at-2-55-45-PM.png [/url]

Scooting left..

Sometimes tropical systems never cease to amaze me. They’re so fun to track. I’d say we no longer have a tight consensus like we did yesterday.

Maybe not among the ensemble members, but I think the consensus is still there largely between Terrebonne Bay and Vermilion Bay but some models a little farther east or west than that.

SFMWD
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

TT
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[Stormcenter]

ICON stronger on this run and still headed for LA.

[tarheelprogrammer]

ICON stronger on this run and still headed for LA.

Same with the GFS. If shear is close to non-existent and dry air is limited, this thing could make a run at hurricane strength. TS is the likely outcome, but it doesn't mean that is what it is going to happen. GFS is much more organized with the system through 42 hours on the 18z run.

[toad strangler]

ICON stronger on this run and still headed for LA.

Same with the GFS. If shear is close to non-existent and dry air is limited, this thing could make a run at hurricane strength. TS is the likely outcome, but it doesn't mean that is what it is going to happen. GFS is much more organized with the system through 42 hours on the 18z run.

Set up isn't there per NHC. This won't be a hurricane.

[bella_may]

ICON stronger on this run and still headed for LA.

Same with the GFS. If shear is close to non-existent and dry air is limited, this thing could make a run at hurricane strength. TS is the likely outcome, but it doesn't mean that is what it is going to happen. GFS is much more organized with the system through 42 hours on the 18z run.

Set up isn't there per NHC. This won't be a hurricane.

You’re probably right but the NHC hasn’t ruled a hurricane out

[Steve]

ICON stronger on this run and still headed for LA.

Same with the GFS. If shear is close to non-existent and dry air is limited, this thing could make a run at hurricane strength. TS is the likely outcome, but it doesn't mean that is what it is going to happen. GFS is much more organized with the system through 42 hours on the 18z run.

Set up isn't there per NHC. This won't be a hurricane.

Yeah, it's pretty unlikely, but I wouldn't say it's 0%. I haven't really thought about it because mid-grade TS seemed most likely since Tuesday's runs. You'd have to think with some of the globals ticking up a little in strength (980's-low 990's) that there would be a shot if the landfall was closer to Cameron Parish or Jefferson County and it got another 1/2 day or so and a possible burst at landfall. But because of the expanded windfield, it's got to be over 90% that there won't be sufficient time for it to be able to transfer enough energy for it to strengthen to H status.

[sphelps8681]

Same with the GFS. If shear is close to non-existent and dry air is limited, this thing could make a run at hurricane strength. TS is the likely outcome, but it doesn't mean that is what it is going to happen. GFS is much more organized with the system through 42 hours on the 18z run.

Set up isn't there per NHC. This won't be a hurricane.

I think Levi Cowan said shear would not be that bad once it got in to the Gulf. Correct me if I am wrong.

[TheStormExpert]

Set up isn't there per NHC. This won't be a hurricane.

I think Levi Cowan said shear would not be that bad once it got in to the Gulf. Correct me if I am wrong.

Even if there wasn't shear (which there will be) you still have continental dry air that will entrained into the storm from the NW.

[Steve]

ICON stronger on this run and still headed for LA.

Hey Stormcenter. Good to see you again this year as well. Your posts the last few days have been on point as usual.

The 18Z runs

ICON - Landfall 7am Monday Morning Vermilion Parish @ 989. Moves almost inland and cuts left along the LA Coast slightly intensifying but mostly maintaining.

GFS - Landfall Sunday 7pm Plaquemines Parish (mouth of the MS River) at 992. GFS doesn't cut hard and moves NW then NNW to be over Monroe 24 hours later. Hopefully that means parts of MS and AL and possibly FL don't get too many training bands or a 24 hour shield.

NAM 12km Res - Approaches Terrebonne Parish coast Sunday night at 995 but then cuts left. It just bout landfalls and bounces off to the just-south-of-due-West and is still offshore at the end of its run almost to Cameron (TX/LA border at the Gulf)

HMON and HWRF are running now. If anyone looks at the 18z EC, please compare it to the 12. Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

twiddling thy thumbs in anticipation of the models going to the dark side...

[sphelps8681]

I think Levi Cowan said shear would not be that bad once it got in to the Gulf. Correct me if I am wrong.

Even if there wasn't shear (which there will be) you still have continental dry air that will entrained into the storm from the NW.

But if it is a tighter storm and not so broad won't that help keep the dry air from being entrained into the storm. Just trying to learn all the ends and outs. Sorry if it is a stupid question. Just wondering.

[Gums]

Salute!

Looking more and more like Audrey 1957, but hopefully more rain and lots less surge.

Being some distance to the east, I had to pedal against the wind the afternoon it was coming ashore - was on a paper route to get spending money. Next day I had a hard time after seeing the early news.

Same place, years later and different storm, but you get the idea, courtesy of "hurricane city", see: http://www.sluf.org/misc_pages/cameron.jpg

And more pics.... https://archive.usgs.gov/archive/sites/ ... arish.html


Gums sends...