ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

From the 4 PM CDT discussion.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected
in the official wind radii forecast. This suggests that when the
storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may
occur at a large distance from the center.Due to the
limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some
uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the
northern Gulf coast.

[bella_may]

From the 4 PM CDT discussion.

The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected
in the official wind radii forecast. This suggests that when the
storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may
occur at a large distance from the center.Due to the
limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some
uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the
northern Gulf coast.

Such an odd storm. 2020 just keeps giving...

[TheStormExpert]

This storm could have a lot more moisture with it than Cindy. IMO

Now that the storm has moved well inland to higher terrain, the current LLC that's holding on will be toast very soon. I think the storm will then become elongated along the trof axis with multiple centers likely forming that revolve around the main gyre. Once it gets into the Gulf, it will tighten up somewhat, but still likely remain a mess with multiple centers and lots of dry air. Structure wise, I think we will end up with a repeat of Cindy 2017, here is a sat picture of Cindy nearing land with her multiple ugly centers labeled 1, 2, and 3. Cristobal will probably look very similar to this as it approaches the Gulf Coast, which is not surprising for June.

http://tropicwatch.info/cindy0621171947.jpg

Cindy was a joke for Louisiana unless you were hundreds of miles away in the Florida panhandle. The Euro modeled depiction of Cristobal is worlds away from Cindy's appearance. I'm expecting Cristobal to pack more of a punch than "Hurricane" Barry last July and there's a good chance the pressure will be lower than Barry's peak of 993mb.

Better safe than sorry, but the upper level environment in the Gulf isn't really conducive for much strengthening as mentioned in the last handful of discussions.

[tailgater]

Shear is dropping in the center of The GOM

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status/1268665886371692552

[Steve]

^^
There's your alleyway north as soon as the southerly flow kicks in. Pretty clear why the models are predicting that Northward movement the next couple of days before whatever happens.

[crimi481]

It looks like inverted- upside down storm thingy. Ya think?

[mpic]

Getting here late so please forgive me. Is there still a lot of dry air in place? No mention of it on local news...only the warm waters. I know better than to watch tv. Also a lot of talk about it becoming a hurricane? Will be quiet now and catch up lol.

[tailgater]

Getting here late so please forgive me. Is there still a lot of dry air in place? No mention of it on local news...only the warm waters. I know better than to watch tv. Also a lot of talk about it becoming a hurricane? Will be quiet now and catch up lol.

Yes most of the western GOM is dry but it moistens up a little as you near the northern gulf coast

[Aric Dunn]

well now that there is some more convection building around the circ. it is clear on radar.. it never made it as far east as the best track. much closer to the coast..

[psyclone]

The real tell about just how poor the chances for our system is to take a look at the NHC's TS wind probs in the expected landfall zone. They're low and haven't been increasing. the 20 percentile barely touches shore in the expected landfall region. Unless those numbers start to go up (and they still could)...it's fair to say the system probably isn't going to amount to much in terms of a sustained wind threat.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... 0#contents

[Aric Dunn]

well now that there is some more convection building around the circ. it is clear on radar.. it never made it as far east as the best track. much closer to the coast..

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan video.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1268692664909795330

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1268692297970905088

[SoupBone]

Getting here late so please forgive me. Is there still a lot of dry air in place? No mention of it on local news...only the warm waters. I know better than to watch tv. Also a lot of talk about it becoming a hurricane? Will be quiet now and catch up lol.

Lots of dry air in the GoM, and it's been increasing for the last several days.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

Location: 17.7°N 90.5°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: 40 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1006 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 150 NM

[toad strangler]

Levi Cowan video.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1268692664909795330

Levi's analysis right in line with a strung out early season climo sloppy mess that will be a prolific rain maker to points far E of whatever center the remnants of Cristobal regenerates.

[Kazmit]

It hasn't moved all day... it's supposed to be back over water tomorrow night.

[Aric Dunn]

It hasn't moved all day... it's supposed to be back over water tomorrow night.

that best track position is clearly off..

actually the image says 17 to 18:45 Z...

Cycloneye posted the old one.

[Aric Dunn]

It hasn't moved all day... it's supposed to be back over water tomorrow night.

that best track position is clearly off..

actually the image says 17 to 18:45 Z...

Cycloneye posted the old one.

even this new one does not match up with surface obs, sat , and radar. but oh well.