ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Steve]

Curving back toward the mouth of the river at 54. 993ish so maintaining mid-grade TS.

[Steve]

Moving into SELA from St. Bernard Parish and hooking west @ 72 hours (Sunday 7pm). That's one of the worst cases for a 3/4/5 if it crosses under the city. But in this case, coastal flooding and maybe the worst north and east of here.

Through 84 hours, the heaviest precipitation is like 3" in the Big Bend. Haha. I'm thinking that's understated.

Here's the latest QPF from the CPC 4-7" almost all of FL and the LA/MS/AL Gulf Coasts
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591329401

[tailgater]

Yeah Steve over here a little worried about tidal lakes and heavy rainfall but I’m pretty sure we can handle this. No 30+ inches in 36 hrs like 2016
hopefully some rain for those that need it.

[La Breeze]

Just wondering... how reliable is the ICON model?

[stormlover2013]

Just wondering... how reliable is the ICON model?

Bad just like cmc and nam

[La Breeze]

Just wondering... how reliable is the ICON model?

Bad just like cmc and nam

Thanks, I sort of thought so.

[Steve]

Just wondering... how reliable is the ICON model?

Bad just like cmc and nam

Thanks, I sort of thought so.

While it's hardly reliable, it has had some successes. CMC isn't in the same category and can be very useful if you actually know what to look for. NAM isn't a tropical model. I'll leave it at that.

[Craters]

And the NAM is the first to throw a nightly curveball. haha. Yeah, as always, it's the NAM. But it's like WNW of the Yucatan tip at 996mb at 34 hours (Saturday 5am Central). I lost all my links forever ago to the early and late cycle guidance and all, but this is a new move for the NAM. I don't think it was this far west at that latitude in recent prior runs. With the caveat that 23N is still essentially out of the NAM's range, maybe it's wanting to bring Texas back in play or else it will gradually curve in Cristobal NNW into the SWLA Coast?

Is this one that you might be missing, Steve?

http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/

[Steve]

That wasn't the one I was getting it from, but I love that one and saved it to this PC. Thanks. More runs should have been out by now, but they've been slow. HWRF, HMON, CMC, GFS Ensembles, European and Icon ought to be out any second if not already.

[TheProfessor]

We still have a bit before the Euro begins initializing. ICON is late and Canadian is a bit behind as well. HMON hasn't initialized for 0z on Tropical Tidbits as well. HWRF is weaker, but quite a bit slower than the 18z run.

[TheProfessor]

It must be something with Tropical Tidbits because the ICON ran on Weathermodels

[Aric Dunn]

00z Euro initialized well. to the NE of the 12 initialized point and to the SE of the 12 hour ( 12z) forecast point. )

a possible shift to the right coming

[Steve]

Was that weathermodels run current? Tidbits, E-Wall, FSU and all are behind on most runs.

HWRF goes in around Grand Isle Sunday morning with most of the weather to the north. It's 993mb. It's been incredibly erratic with this storm. For my money, the timing is off

[Aric Dunn]

or not.. lol

it just makes of the difference

[Steve]

00z Euro initialized well. to the NE of the 12 initialized point and to the SE of the 12 hour ( 12z) forecast point. )

a possible shift to the right coming

Definitely possible. But the eventual block as to how far east will be mid-upper atmosphere. That's a solid wall in the Atlantic. If the European advances that westward, there's only so far east it could ever get. Can't wait for those next couple plots, but I'm tired. haha

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60500&fh=0

[TheProfessor]

Was that weathermodels run current? Tidbits, E-Wall, FSU and all are behind on most runs.

HWRF goes in around Grand Isle Sunday morning with most of the weather to the north. It's 993mb. It's been incredibly erratic with this storm. For my money, the timing is off

At first I thought it could be the 18z run disguised as the 0z run on the site, but there are definitely some slight differences on the 0z run, specifically at landfall. Before that it's nearly a carbon copy and looks as if it could be the same run.

[Aric Dunn]

00z Euro initialized well. to the NE of the 12 initialized point and to the SE of the 12 hour ( 12z) forecast point. )

a possible shift to the right coming

Definitely possible. But the eventual block as to how far east will be mid-upper atmosphere. That's a solid wall in the Atlantic. If the European advances that westward, there's only so far east it could ever get. Can't wait for those next couple plots, but I'm tired. haha

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 60500&fh=0

Im still thinking more the UKMET from yesterday that ran NE ahead of the dry line in the better upper environment then turn wnw when it bumped into the ridge.

[Stormi]

00z Euro initialized well. to the NE of the 12 initialized point and to the SE of the 12 hour ( 12z) forecast point. )

a possible shift to the right coming

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020060500/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_1.png

Upon reviewing the most recent GFS, it appears that you could be quite right.

[Steve]

or not.. lol

it just makes of the difference

Indeed, lol. That's a solid push west from the Atlantic ridging. Weather should be east of center, but center isn't going to get that far east until it reaches the westerlies. Orientation of western trough will be interesting to see if it could guide it east, but eventually a ridge is supposed to build up in Missouri or so for the final nudge left.

This is a beast ridge. If the ECMWF has this still advancing or static at 48 hours, take it to the bank this is a North Gulf Storm or a west cut to the NW Gulf.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0500&fh=24

[Aric Dunn]

Ukmet.. actually 984mb