ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

well we know why it seems to want to go east... lol

[MississippiWx]

I think what's happening is the old circulation from Cristobal is getting absorbed into the broader monsoon gyre. The monsoon gyre appears to be centered directly in the middle of the Yucatan Peninsula where the strong convection is located. A circulation appears to be tightening there underneath the strong convection while the old center from Cristobal pivots around the south side of the new one. If this is occurring, then technically we could have "Dolly".

[TheProfessor]

Everyone was talking about a fun storm tonight but I already know it won't be fun for me. If we end up on the east side here it's pretty likely will lose power. It seems like the power goes out when a strong lake breeze blows through. We lost power for 14 hours after Olga, that was painful(I know there's many who have been through much worse, but any time the power goes out for an extended time it's not much fun.).

Personally I'm a bit concerned about the steering currents when the storm approaches the northern coast. Some of the models show the storm slowing down quite a bit as it does a westward bend. Then there's some that are the opposite and the storm accelerates northward. It's all going to depend on the location of the ridge and where the storms at.

[Steve]

Everyone was talking about a fun storm tonight but I already know it won't be fun for me. If we end up on the east side here it's pretty likely will lose power. It seems like the power goes out when a strong lake breeze blows through. We lost power for 14 hours after Olga, that was painful(I know there's many who have been through much worse, but any time the power goes out for an extended time it's not much fun.).

Personally I'm a bit concerned about the steering currents when the storm approaches the northern coast. Some of the models show the storm slowing down quite a bit as it does a westward bend. Then there's some that are the opposite and the storm accelerates northward. It's all going to depend on the location of the ridge and where the storms at.

Considering the alternatives of widespread destruction and devastation, I'll take the minor inconveniences of having to stock up on supplies, get cars to higher ground and flashlights. But I do understand. As for Olga, man, that's the first storm I slept through since Hurricane Florence in 1988. Old guy story is that one of my best hurricane friends Linda (RIP) and Chuck both had to work til after 10. I got to their house, and they were the first ones I knew who had a keg-o-rator. Haha. I got drunk on multiple mugs of miller genuine draft and passed out. They lived a block off Lake Pontchartrain and got the eye or eyewall while I was sleeping. I woke up in a daze like 4 or 5 am and the winds had already turned SW. /pwnd. But my excuse for Olga was that Friday was Voodoo Fest, and we stood out in the rain all day having a blast and finishing with the 3 hour Guns N Roses set. I'm not even really that much of a fan, but it was the best show I saw last year out of 150 or so. Lots of limbs down and one of the main LED screens at City Park was lost, but mostly I regretted not being able to be on my porch in 50-55mph winds enjoying that which we don't see too often.

Anyway, good luck with the power. I'd think worst case for you guys on the Northshore would be for Cristobal to cut west south of the City and y''all get into that E-W flow on the north side.

[Aric Dunn]

the Center based on radar and tracking low level cloud inflow on the west side.

[TheProfessor]

Everyone was talking about a fun storm tonight but I already know it won't be fun for me. If we end up on the east side here it's pretty likely will lose power. It seems like the power goes out when a strong lake breeze blows through. We lost power for 14 hours after Olga, that was painful(I know there's many who have been through much worse, but any time the power goes out for an extended time it's not much fun.).

Personally I'm a bit concerned about the steering currents when the storm approaches the northern coast. Some of the models show the storm slowing down quite a bit as it does a westward bend. Then there's some that are the opposite and the storm accelerates northward. It's all going to depend on the location of the ridge and where the storms at.

Considering the alternatives of widespread destruction and devastation, I'll take the minor inconveniences of having to stock up on supplies, get cars to higher ground and flashlights. But I do understand. As for Olga, man, that's the first storm I slept through since Hurricane Florence in 1988. Old guy story is that one of my best hurricane friends Linda (RIP) and Chuck both had to work til after 10. I got to their house, and they were the first ones I knew who had a keg-o-rator. Haha. I got drunk on multiple mugs of miller genuine draft and passed out. They lived a block off Lake Pontchartrain and got the eye or eyewall while I was sleeping. I woke up in a daze like 4 or 5 am and the winds had already turned SW. /pwnd. But my excuse for Olga was that Friday was Voodoo Fest, and we stood out in the rain all day having a blast and finishing with the 3 hour Guns N Roses set. I'm not even really that much of a fan, but it was the best show I saw last year out of 150 or so. Lots of limbs down and one of the main LED screens at City Park was lost, but mostly I regretted not being able to be on my porch in 50-55mph winds enjoying that which we don't see too often.

Anyway, good luck with the power. I'd think worst case for you guys on the Northshore would be for Cristobal to cut west south of the City and y''all get into that E-W flow on the north side.

I stayed up for Olga, it was pretty fun until the lights went out, I have trouble sleeping without sound and when the power goes out all those little electronic buzzing you're used to goes away. I consider Olga my first true storm. Barry was um, well Barry. Sorry to hear about your friend.

[Steve]

Going to sleep after this, but we should see Tropical Storm watches issued tomorrow night and then probably TS Warnings issued Saturday afternoon. Hard to say with the uncertainty of where Cristobal will come up from, but it's possible that we could have warnings pretty far east from wherever they think the center will landfall. I'll probably try to make a call tomorrow after the 12z or 18z model runs at the latest. G'n.

[NDG]

What surprises me is how relatively close the convection is to the CoC over land during the night, it usually shifts over water.

[Nimbus]

Infrared imagery can be deceiving but it looks like another vort is making a run for the north shore of the Yucatan.
Whole system could be on the move north?

[tropicwatch]

Infrared imagery can be deceiving but it looks like another vort is making a run for the north shore of the Yucatan.
Whole system could be on the move north?

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 90.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[toad strangler]

Cristobal continues to behave and the forecast is probably the more confident ones we have seen in a while despite the gyre and land interaction. I am really impressed by the GFS, not so much the Euro this time around. But overall the consensus of the two is quite good. Cristobal should eventually get steered north by southerly wind flow that should develop in the next 24-48 hours across the GOM and Yucatan where it may briefly intensify in the southern GOM before weakening quite rapidly (and possibly transitioning to extra tropical) as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Dry continental air and shear await. Most of the weather will be far to the east of where the storm landfalls quite possibly as far east as Florida.

I noticed more than a couple GFS bash posts. I have no idea why people do that. Or maybe I do? Because it didn't show a solution they wanted to see. Anyway, the main players you and many of us have mentioned today appear poised to inhibit this system. Abundant dry air and some shear should keep whatever does regenerate from the remnants of Cristobal as a weak lopsided low end TS or STS.

No it is because it did terrible outside of picking up on a generalized area for development lol..

it was a mess of crap..

Nah. GFS has been OK. It's a tool. Not a crystal ball. What evs ...

[NDG]

Infrared imagery can be deceiving but it looks like another vort is making a run for the north shore of the Yucatan.
Whole system could be on the move north?

Overall a broad circulation near the 90th longitude, SE of the city of Campeche with multiple vorticities rotating around it.

[NDG]

Cristobal continues to behave and the forecast is probably the more confident ones we have seen in a while despite the gyre and land interaction. I am really impressed by the GFS, not so much the Euro this time around. But overall the consensus of the two is quite good. Cristobal should eventually get steered north by southerly wind flow that should develop in the next 24-48 hours across the GOM and Yucatan where it may briefly intensify in the southern GOM before weakening quite rapidly (and possibly transitioning to extra tropical) as it approaches the northern gulf coast. Dry continental air and shear await. Most of the weather will be far to the east of where the storm landfalls quite possibly as far east as Florida.

Going by just one model is never a good thing.

[wxman57]

Just look at that dry air! Already taking on a sheared comma shape. Won't be much impact west of the track. Landfall late Sunday evening near eastern Vermilion Bay. Might have some 50kt winds over the water.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-gulf-09-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[TheStormExpert]

Cristobal is definitely taking on the look of a more classic sheared June tropical cyclone we are used to seeing during this month.

Like I said a few days ago it’s best looking days are behind him, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have impacts which will be felt several hundred miles away from the center.

[GCANE]

Seeing increase in LL TPW in the ML Dry Air west of the CoC in the BoC due to moderately high CAPE
Strong, high rain-rate convection appears to be firing along a feeder band extending into the SW Carib.
Some drier air maybe pulling up from Honduras.
Still looks like it may form off a PV Streamer, nice UL Divergent outflow over the Yucatan.
500mb vort is consolidating.

[GCANE]

Didn't take long for dryline convection to quickly pop up.

[NDG]

First vis pic.

[GCANE]

Last IR est fix, 3 hrs ago.

[GCANE]

Mid-level vort looks pretty darn close to the water.