ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#841 Postby GCANE » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:27 am

06Z GFS showing the dry air not really hitting this until mid GOM.
Looks solid coming off the Yucatan.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#842 Postby GCANE » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:29 am

Much more well defined vort on this run.
Could see more surprises on future runs.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#843 Postby Jr0d » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:31 am

It looks like Cristobal is finally on the move.

Here in Key West its overcast with low fast moving cumulus and hit or miss downpours and squalls the tale tale sign of tropical weather.

Not expecting much in terms of severe weather besides heavy rain with some flooding and some gusty winds in the feeder bands.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#844 Postby GCANE » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:32 am

355K PV clearing out ahead of this, increasing chances for intensification.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#845 Postby xironman » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:32 am

Since the low level vort is basically dead, I could see a reformation near the better convection. Campeche has a light NW wind.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#846 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:51 am

Based on first vis satellite loop and surface observations it looks the CoC is now almost due east of Campeche, might be getting back over water faster than forecasted.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#847 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:57 am

NDG wrote:Based on first vis satellite loop and surface observations it looks the CoC is now almost due east of Campeche, might be getting back over water faster than forecasted.

https://i.imgur.com/jO7Gd0F.gif

Yes Cristobal is definitely moving north at a decent pace now, faster than forecasted which means it’ll likely for sure emerge into the GoM later or tonight.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#848 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:59 am

Wow :eek: Looks to me like a new center is reforming at 20N & 90W.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#849 Postby aspen » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:06 am

Lots of popping convection on the N through ESE parts of the storm. If that gets a little more centralized or a little more wrapped around the center, I can see it justifying an upgrade back to a TS.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#850 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:07 am

12z Best Track:

Location: 19.5°N 90.0°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 150 NM


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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#851 Postby GCANE » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:11 am

Tons off cumulus forming in the dry air SW of the CoC.
Should fire off later this afternoon and moisten the mid-levels.
Dry air is currently not a problem.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#852 Postby xironman » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:14 am

cycloneye wrote:12z Best Track:

Location: 19.5°N 90.0°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 150 NM


https://i.imgur.com/LJHw9H5.png


That is quite a bit north, even north of 18Z

INIT 05/0900Z 18.8N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#853 Postby Buck » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:18 am

Satellite looks pretty decent this AM until you realize where the center fix is. Good to see he is moving finally, if only for a break in the rain for Mexico.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#854 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:21 am

pretty straight forward( well curved lol) with surface obs and satellite what is happening. baring any reformations of course.

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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#855 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:28 am

The system is.looking pretty good, considering the time it.has been over land the past day or so.

The next 36 hours are going to be very interesting. Still, there is a ton of dry air just.off to the NW of the cyclone, and the system won't be able to fend that off, unless it.really wraps up and tightens its core. We shall see. But, it is in the GOM, and there is always a possibility that this could get stronger, like the 06Z GFS run this morning is trying to hint at as it approaches the LA coast.Sunday night.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#856 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:32 am

being that it is already this far NE of the previous model initialization. We should see some adjustments to track.. as long as the models do go off the 12z Best track position .. lol
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#857 Postby MississippiWx » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:33 am

Aric Dunn wrote:pretty straight forward( well curved lol) with surface obs and satellite what is happening. baring any reformations of course.

https://i.ibb.co/yF1ZNMq/Capture.png


I believe the center has or is reforming much closer to the NW tip of the Yucatán. I think it is fairly well organized and not as broad as models were predicting. I’m thinking the constant strong convection over the Yucatán helped tighten the vortex again. The Yucatán again did its magic.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#858 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:35 am

aspen wrote:Lots of popping convection on the N through ESE parts of the storm. If that gets a little more centralized or a little more wrapped around the center, I can see it justifying an upgrade back to a TS.


Agreed; N Yucatan is flat enough that being that far north we could well see deepening occur over land even. That's happened before. Other possible scenario is that a new center might form just west of that point over water. This could well occur if initial pressure drops begin to occur just offshore plus I could potentially see a short term west (or reformation) motion as a result of the broader gyre itself causing the redeveloping T.D. core to torq west one last time. Either way, per the 4:00 a.m TCD Cristobal was forecast to re-intensify to a T.S. by 6Z 6/7 (after midnight). I'm thinking that the core itself may be better defined then NHC had thought overnight and that we'll see an upgrade late this afternoon/early evening. Overnight satellite had me thinking that GFS had this better pegged but now i'm beginning to wonder if the Euro did in fact have a better handle on it. If the latter is the case, look out upper Texas/W. Louisiana coast. Minimal hurricane may well be back on the table.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#859 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:36 am

MississippiWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:pretty straight forward( well curved lol) with surface obs and satellite what is happening. baring any reformations of course.

https://i.ibb.co/yF1ZNMq/Capture.png


I believe the center has or is reforming much closer to the NW tip of the Yucatán. I think it is fairly well organized and not as broad as models were predicting. I’m thinking the constant strong convection over the Yucatán helped tighten the vortex again. The Yucatán again did its magic.


well right now no evidence of that .. all the dynamics and convergence are to the NE with the convection and surface obs are telling the story right now.
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Re: ATL: CRISTOBAL - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#860 Postby Steve » Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:38 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
NDG wrote:Based on first vis satellite loop and surface observations it looks the CoC is now almost due east of Campeche, might be getting back over water faster than forecasted.

https://i.imgur.com/jO7Gd0F.gif

Yes Cristobal is definitely moving north at a decent pace now, faster than forecasted which means it’ll likely for sure emerge into the GoM later or tonight.


Agreed. Globals, Hurricanes and Mesoscales have all progged today to be the day almost all week. Looks like they will be confirmed. The question is only where it emerges and then you can sort of track maybe a couple degrees left of that for eventual landfall.
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