ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

pretty straight forward( well curved lol) with surface obs and satellite what is happening. baring any reformations of course.

https://i.ibb.co/yF1ZNMq/Capture.png

I believe the center has or is reforming much closer to the NW tip of the Yucatán. I think it is fairly well organized and not as broad as models were predicting. I’m thinking the constant strong convection over the Yucatán helped tighten the vortex again. The Yucatán again did its magic.

Ha! You beat me to it LOL. Spot on.a

[Aric Dunn]

pretty straight forward( well curved lol) with surface obs and satellite what is happening. baring any reformations of course.

https://i.ibb.co/yF1ZNMq/Capture.png

I believe the center has or is reforming much closer to the NW tip of the Yucatán. I think it is fairly well organized and not as broad as models were predicting. I’m thinking the constant strong convection over the Yucatán helped tighten the vortex again. The Yucatán again did its magic.

Ha! You beat me to it LOL. Spot on.a

Dont get caught up with all the wispy mid level swirls. we have plenty of surface obs. and there is nothing off the NW TIp.

that surface obs with the NNE wind is very straightforward.. center, as it is now, is lifting to the N-NNE following the convection... this places the center in the north central Yucatan Peninsula.

[MississippiWx]

I believe the center has or is reforming much closer to the NW tip of the Yucatán. I think it is fairly well organized and not as broad as models were predicting. I’m thinking the constant strong convection over the Yucatán helped tighten the vortex again. The Yucatán again did its magic.

Ha! You beat me to it LOL. Spot on.a

Dont get caught up with all the wispy mid level swirls. we have plenty of surface obs. and there is nothing off the NW TIp.

that surface obs with the NNE wind is very straightforward.. center, as it is now, is lifting to the N-NNE following the convection... this places the center in the north central Yucatan Peninsula.

https://i.ibb.co/1QDC4nc/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-Campeche-02-13-36-Z-20200605-map-plot-26-1n-10-100.gif

I agree with the placement you have.

I misread the original map you posted. I don’t think there is any doubt this is much farther north than originally forecast. Should be over water within the next 3-6 hours.

[chaser1]

I believe the center has or is reforming much closer to the NW tip of the Yucatán. I think it is fairly well organized and not as broad as models were predicting. I’m thinking the constant strong convection over the Yucatán helped tighten the vortex again. The Yucatán again did its magic.

Ha! You beat me to it LOL. Spot on.a

Dont get caught up with all the wispy mid level swirls. we have plenty of surface obs. and there is nothing off the NW TIp.

that surface obs with the NNE wind is very straightforward.. center, as it is now, is lifting to the N-NNE following the convection... this places the center in the north central Yucatan Peninsula.

https://i.ibb.co/1QDC4nc/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-Campeche-02-13-36-Z-20200605-map-plot-26-1n-10-100.gif

Understandable and 19 out of 20 times, I'd agree that the LLC would simply follow the convection. Plus, it's certainly hard to argue against those NNE barbs on the North coast. On the other hand the wind barb on the W coastline show a NNW wind and due north of it appears to at least be some eddy or low level vort center directly on the coastline. Providing that this feature is not simply transitory, it is the point where I could see reformation. We'll see. It'll either be altogether gone in a couple hours or might just well be a point where we begin to see falling pressures. One thing seems reasonable to say though, with the core having been over land for a decent period of time now the LLC pressure field would seemingly be broadened to the extent that reformation would likely occur where conditions are most conducive. Will be interesting to see how the day evolves.

[Aric Dunn]

Current center is approaching the coast quickly.. the surface ob has switched to Due north meaning the circ is somewhere east of it. and surface obs on the east coast confirm. the arching convective pattern to the convection just offshore also indicated growing curvature and low level convergence..

[xironman]

Ha! You beat me to it LOL. Spot on.a

Dont get caught up with all the wispy mid level swirls. we have plenty of surface obs. and there is nothing off the NW TIp.

that surface obs with the NNE wind is very straightforward.. center, as it is now, is lifting to the N-NNE following the convection... this places the center in the north central Yucatan Peninsula.

https://i.ibb.co/1QDC4nc/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-Campeche-02-13-36-Z-20200605-map-plot-26-1n-10-100.gif

Understandable and 19 out of 20 times, I'd agree that the LLC would simply follow the convection. Plus, it's certainly hard to argue against those NNE barbs on the North coast. On the other hand the wind barb on the W coastline show a NNW wind and due north of it appears to at least be some eddy or low level vort center directly on the coastline. Providing that this feature is not simply transitory, it is the point where I could see reformation. We'll see. It'll either be altogether gone in a couple hours or might just well be a point where we begin to see falling pressures. One thing seems reasonable to say though, with the core having been over land for a decent period of time now the LLC pressure field would seemingly be broadened to the extent that reformation would likely occur where conditions are most conducive. Will be interesting to see how the day evolves.

There are multiple eddies rotating around the gyre, Aric did a job of centralizing what is happening.

[GCANE]

Diurnal pressure variation about to turn south.
May open window of opportunity for intensification next 12 hrs.

[cycloneye]

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM INDIAN PASS TO AREPIKA FLORIDA AND FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.

[Steve]

NHC initial position:

20.0N 89.9W <-- near Katab and Monte Bello (south of Merida) on the NW side of the Yucatan.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC initial position:

20.0N 89.9W

have to be consistent and follow guidance I suppose.

[Steve]

NHC initial position:

20.0N 89.9W

have to be consistent and follow guidance I suppose.

That's what I'm thinking. Though if you look at visible, you can see where they're going with it as that's one of the places things are coming together. You can see the center you've been mentioning off to the east looking like it's merging into or tucking under that inflow to the north. Cool stuff to watch evolve.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[Aric Dunn]

NHC initial position:

20.0N 89.9W

have to be consistent and follow guidance I suppose.

That's what I'm thinking. Though if you look at visible, you can see where they're going with it as that's one of the places things are coming together. You can see the center you've been mentioning off to the east looking like it's merging into or tucking under that inflow to the north. Cool stuff to watch evolve.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

yeah that swirl off the west coast is not at the surface. surface obs the last couple hours have only reinforced the circ to the NE.

couple that with the deep convection and rotational energy once the circ gets closer to the coast. an easy argument could be made that a well defined circ would tighten up with the convection somewhere north of middle of the Yucatan.

watching the one surface obs closely to see if it switches to NNW shortly. then we can all rest easy where the circ is..

[SouthDadeFish]

The overall banding pattern appears to be improving, with a general expansion in the areal coverage of convection. It remains to be seen how the nearby dry air affects this developing convection. Looking forward to having some airborne radar observations from the NOAA P3 later today.

[Sanibel]

Hanging together like some do better than others...

Will go over cool waters north of Yucatan when it first emerges...

[Aric Dunn]

In addition to the wind direction.. the pressure is pointing to the circ closing in the north central coast.. probably 999mb to 1000mb in the center

[MississippiWx]

I think this system is fairly organized for something that has been over land for 3 days. Interested to see what happens once over water.

[Steve]

The overall banding pattern appears to be improving, with a general expansion in the areal coverage of convection. It remains to be seen how the nearby dry air affects this developing convection. Looking forward to having some airborne radar observations from the NOAA P3 later today

I don't think I've ever seen those. Are they publicly available or only distributed professionally?

Weird thing about this whole setup would be if this was in the Western Caribbean rather than on the Yucatan, that dry air to the west would be telegraphing pattern reversal and probably strong intensification. Cristobal won't have enough time over water, and none of the models really deepen it approaching the Gulf Coast.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1268925261095022592

[NDG]

I have marked where the latest fix by the NHC is, clearly there is no defined LLC, just an elongated broad circulation with multiple vorticities around it.

[Dean4Storms]

Have to agree with Aric on that Low position, Obs certainly back that up.