ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think I've ever seen those. Are they publicly available or only distributed professionally?

Weird thing about this whole setup would be if this was in the Western Caribbean rather than on the Yucatan, that dry air to the west would be telegraphing pattern reversal and probably strong intensification. Cristobal won't have enough time over water, and none of the models really deepen it approaching the Gulf Coast.

Well, and nobody really thought this was going to be a big wind issue anyway. People are worried about the rain, and there’s going to be a large amount of rain. I’m sure we will hear about flooding reports

[SouthDadeFish]

The overall banding pattern appears to be improving, with a general expansion in the areal coverage of convection. It remains to be seen how the nearby dry air affects this developing convection. Looking forward to having some airborne radar observations from the NOAA P3 later today

I don't think I've ever seen those. Are they publicly available or only distributed professionally?

Weird thing about this whole setup would be if this was in the Western Caribbean rather than on the Yucatan, that dry air to the west would be telegraphing pattern reversal and probably strong intensification. Cristobal won't have enough time over water, and none of the models really deepen it approaching the Gulf Coast.

The radar obs are assimilated into HWRF, so you can get a general idea of the structure of the storm (theoretically assuming the assimilation is working properly) through the model analysis for the 00Z cycle. We have our own diagnostics, but I'm not sure if they are ready to be shared with the public in real-time. I can look into this.

[Steve]

Here we go:

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for Baldwin and Mobile Counties in Alabama and Jackson, Harrison and Hancock Counties in Mississippi. These 5 counties are all along the coast.

In Louisiana, TS Watches have been issued from the LA/MS Border over to Vermilion Bay for the coastal parishes. The Watch is also in place for parts of the Parishes North and West of Lake Pontchartrain.

First fringe showers are south of AL and MS moving slowly to the west.
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.p ... 1&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

The overall banding pattern appears to be improving, with a general expansion in the areal coverage of convection. It remains to be seen how the nearby dry air affects this developing convection. Looking forward to having some airborne radar observations from the NOAA P3 later today

I don't think I've ever seen those. Are they publicly available or only distributed professionally?

Weird thing about this whole setup would be if this was in the Western Caribbean rather than on the Yucatan, that dry air to the west would be telegraphing pattern reversal and probably strong intensification. Cristobal won't have enough time over water, and none of the models really deepen it approaching the Gulf Coast.

The radar obs are assimilated into HWRF, so you can get a general idea of the structure of the storm (theoretically assuming the assimilation is working properly) through the model analysis for the 00Z cycle. We have our own diagnostics, but I'm not sure if they are ready to be shared with the public in real-time. I can look into this.

They used to have them on the Atlantic Recon. when there is a flight click the flight and it would give options for radar images. I dont know if I have seen any this year though

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi

[NDG]

In addition to the wind direction.. the pressure is pointing to the circ closing in the north central coast.. probably 999mb to 1000mb in the center

https://i.ibb.co/ZHrM4Hr/Capture.png

https://i.ibb.co/y06cNcs/Capture2.png

According to this Merida's pressure is at 1003mb, and it hasn't been lower than this all morning.

METAR for: MMMD (Merida Intl, --, MX)
Text: MMMD 051445Z 03008KT 5SM -RA BKN009 OVC070 24/23 A2962 RMK SLP041 57006 991 60045 8/42/
Temperature: 24.0°C ( 75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C ( 73°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.62 inches Hg (1003.1 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1004.1 mb]
Winds: from the NNE (30 degrees) at 9 MPH (8 knots; 4.1 m/s)
Visibility: 5 sm ( 8 km)
Ceiling: 900 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 900 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/d ... &layout=on

[SouthDadeFish]

I don't think I've ever seen those. Are they publicly available or only distributed professionally?

Weird thing about this whole setup would be if this was in the Western Caribbean rather than on the Yucatan, that dry air to the west would be telegraphing pattern reversal and probably strong intensification. Cristobal won't have enough time over water, and none of the models really deepen it approaching the Gulf Coast.

The radar obs are assimilated into HWRF, so you can get a general idea of the structure of the storm (theoretically assuming the assimilation is working properly) through the model analysis for the 00Z cycle. We have our own diagnostics, but I'm not sure if they are ready to be shared with the public in real-time. I can look into this.

They used to have them on the Atlantic Recon. when there is a flight click the flight and it would give options for radar images. I dont know if I have seen any this year though

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi

My understanding is that those were from the lower-fuselage radar, which only provides composite reflectivity. I'm referring to the tail Doppler radar which can provide a 3D view of the kinematic structure of the TC, in addition to the 3D reflectivity structure.

[aspen]

Based on its projected path, the intensity estimates from GFS and Euro, and the environment that’s been discussed in Levi’s most recent video, I’m thinking Cristobal could end up a lot like Alberto ‘18 in terms of appearance and intensity. Decent chance of getting a lower pressure than Arthur.

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see something quickly tighten up just offshore the NOrth coast with that new deep convection building and curving around.

[MississippiWx]

The center Aric has been taking about this morning is the main one. The GFS latched onto it for 12z and has it pretty strong coming off the coast. Visible satellite is proving this as well.

[Aric Dunn]

The center Aric has been taking about this morning is the main one. The GFS latched onto it for 12z and has it pretty strong coming off the coast. Visible satellite is proving this as well.

Yeah you can see it quite clearly now under the mid and upper level cloud debris. matches with all the surface obs. and is heading N to NNE. given the speed it should be offshore in 3 to 6 hours right inline with the 12z GFS... unless it reforms in that deep convection building presently offshore.

[psyclone]

Our system looks really impressive considering the calendar and amount of time spent on land. TS wind probs are increasing now too. That looks warranted. Watch products look well placed as one would expect.

[NDG]

This is where I think the CoC is, a bit elongated with multiple vorticities at different levels rotating around it.

[GCANE]

Popups beginning to fire up across the IoT.
Will feed into the system and hold off dry-air entrainment for at least the next 24 hrs.
Might even help to strengthen it.

[Aric Dunn]

The circ is becoming more defined as it is approaching the coast. heading pretty much Due north. Strong Southerly inflow noted on the east side. looks primed to fire off convection once it moves back over water.

probably even ahead of the recent 12z GFS.

[GCANE]

Getting a cutoff UL Low now.
Good chance it'll spin up from a PV Streamer.

[Aric Dunn]

look how quickly the circ is starting to tighten up and become more defined as it is approaching the coast. Convection offshore appears to be pulling it that way. and I would expect fresh convection to begin to develop right along the coast as the circ nears.

should be offshore at this rate in the next couple of hours.

[cycloneye]

Aric, that is why two planes will fly this afternoon at 4 PM and 5 PM.

[Steve]

look how quickly the circ is starting to tighten up and become more defined as it is approaching the coast. Convection offshore appears to pulling that way.

should be offshore at this rate in the next couple of hours.

https://i.ibb.co/yQL1pjT/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Yucatan-dcphase-17-11-Z-20200605-map-plot-23-1n-4-100.gif

You almost wonder if the shape of Mexico into the west side of its Yucatan Peninsula hasn't been a positive for maintaining that circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

look how quickly the circ is starting to tighten up and become more defined as it is approaching the coast. Convection offshore appears to pulling that way.

should be offshore at this rate in the next couple of hours.

https://i.ibb.co/yQL1pjT/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-subregional-Yucatan-dcphase-17-11-Z-20200605-map-plot-23-1n-4-100.gif

You almost wonder if the shape of Mexico into the west side of its Yucatan Peninsula hasn't been a positive for maintaining that circulation.

That is quite plausible

[Aric Dunn]

Convection should start to fire off right over or near the center soon as it gets closer to the coast. ..