ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro initialized pretty poorly compared to the GFS. even at 12z it was not where the euro has it.

will probably make this slower and more left than the rest.. unless something else changes lol

[Steve]

EC initialized fairly decently for the run (placing it on the Peninsula at 7am this morning)

[Steve]

EC at 24 hours has 996mb off the NW Tip of the Yucatan @ 22.55N / 90.3W. Ridging building in north from the west. So glad this isn't late August.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=24

[Steve]

48 hours and it's approaching the LA Coast near Grand Isle at 993mb.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=48

[kevin]

992 mbar at landfall, sometime between 48 and 72 hours. 72 hour image below.

[La Breeze]

Is the slight northwesterly jog still expected as it nears the coast of LA? Is the high pressure to the northeast weaker than expected?

[kevin]

Close-up of landfall, at 62 hours.



The strongest gusts (137 kmh, 85 mph) are East of the center near Gulfport, as is the case with rainfall.

[Steve]

Is the slight northwesterly jog still expected as it nears the coast of LA? Is the high pressure to the northeast weaker than expected?

I don't have access to 6 hour runs of the EC so it's hard to say exactly how it goes. But it does go NW from Landfall because you can see it's around Alexandria in the CENLA part of the state at 72 hours. Look at the 500mb (link below). Ridge builds in over top (as in north of the storm) from the NW and hooks up with the Atlantic Ridge as that builds in from the SE. Only way it can go is NNE-NW (so probably it goes almost due north and maybe makes a western slide around or just after landfall.

Here is today's EC (darker the red, higher the pressure/more ridging)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=72

Here is yesterday's 12z. They are pretty similar IMHO
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0412&fh=24

[TheStormExpert]

Close-up of landfall, at 62 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/KLXiSW9.png

The strongest gusts (139 kmh, 86 mph) are East of the center near Gulfport, as is the case with rainfall.

https://i.imgur.com/wdihHWt.png

So would that qualify as a minimal Cat.1 landfall on the 12z Euro run? That pressure of 992mb seems kind of high for a Cat.1 hurricane.

[TheProfessor]

Close-up of landfall, at 62 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/KLXiSW9.png

The strongest gusts (139 kmh, 86 mph) are East of the center near Gulfport, as is the case with rainfall.

https://i.imgur.com/wdihHWt.png

So would that qualify as a minimal Cat.1 landfall on the 12z Euro run? That pressure of 992mb seems kind of high for a Cat.1 hurricane.

Barry was a 993mb storm as a Cat-1, of course Barry wasn't like most Cat-1s.

[bella_may]

Close-up of landfall, at 62 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/KLXiSW9.png

The strongest gusts (137 kmh, 85 mph) are East of the center near Gulfport, as is the case with rainfall.

https://i.imgur.com/wdihHWt.png

Oh lord. I’m right by the pink line

[TheStormExpert]

Close-up of landfall, at 62 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/KLXiSW9.png

The strongest gusts (139 kmh, 86 mph) are East of the center near Gulfport, as is the case with rainfall.

https://i.imgur.com/wdihHWt.png

So would that qualify as a minimal Cat.1 landfall on the 12z Euro run? That pressure of 992mb seems kind of high for a Cat.1 hurricane.

Barry was a 993mb storm as a Cat-1, of course Barry wasn't like most Cat-1s.

Neither did it look like most!

[aspen]

Close-up of landfall, at 62 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/KLXiSW9.png

The strongest gusts (139 kmh, 86 mph) are East of the center near Gulfport, as is the case with rainfall.

https://i.imgur.com/wdihHWt.png

So would that qualify as a minimal Cat.1 landfall on the 12z Euro run? That pressure of 992mb seems kind of high for a Cat.1 hurricane.

Barry was a 993mb storm as a Cat-1, of course Barry wasn't like most Cat-1s.

Cindy ‘05 and Beryl ‘18 were also Cat 1 storms with pressures in the low 990s, so it’s possible Cristobal could be the same. I’m still thinking it’ll end up as a rather significant (50-60 kt) tropical storm at peak.

[TheStormExpert]

Assuming Cristobal actually makes landfall in SE Louisiana the strongest winds and likely the worst weather will go into the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

[Steve]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Consensus is Grand Isle to Cocodrie likely sometime Sunday afternoon or evening. Hopefully it's just a fun ride for the next 3 days with minimal impacts to most people. If it had gone a little more west, I'd worry about southern Terrebonne Parish which has a ton of homes which are now low-lying due to coastal erosion, thousands of which flooded when Ike passed by 100 miles to the South. All it takes is a couple feet of tide to ruin people's homes and belongings down there. So maybe if it does come in east of Vermilion Bay, it won't end up being a 9 figure storm.

[MONTEGUT_LA]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Consensus is Grand Isle to Cocodrie likely sometime Sunday afternoon or evening. Hopefully it's just a fun ride for the next 3 days with minimal impacts to most people. If it had gone a little more west, I'd worry about southern Terrebonne Parish which has a ton of homes which are now low-lying due to coastal erosion, thousands of which flooded when Ike passed by 100 miles to the South. All it takes is a couple feet of tide to ruin people's homes and belongings down there. So maybe if it does come in east of Vermilion Bay, it won't end up being a 9 figure storm.

Steve, we're not too worried as most of Southern Terrebonne has flood gates and leeves. The worry will be the heavy rain as our pumps can only hold up 3" of rain per hour. I am from lower Montegut. The last time my childhood home has flooded was during Rita 2005. I currently live in dulac. In dulac , we just got new locks. it has helped a lot with Spring flooding. But during ike it flooded in our dulac home for the 1st time but my montegut house did not flood other than the yard. So a little worried on where all the water will go now that we are mostly secured with locks and leeves. Most of the homes here are elevated.

My older kids are staying home at my mom's in Montegut. They are 8ft up. Most ppl down the bayou stay home for TS and Cat1. I got hotel booked in Thibodaux for my mom and 2 young children. I'll try to keep guys inform as to what is going on down there.

[ColdMiser123]

Close-up of landfall, at 62 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/KLXiSW9.png

The strongest gusts (139 kmh, 86 mph) are East of the center near Gulfport, as is the case with rainfall.

https://i.imgur.com/wdihHWt.png

So would that qualify as a minimal Cat.1 landfall on the 12z Euro run? That pressure of 992mb seems kind of high for a Cat.1 hurricane.

Wind intensity in a hurricane would be more strongly linked to the difference in storm and ambient environmental pressure as opposed to a set value for what pressure constitutes a hurricane. Hurricane Danny in 2003 had a minimum central pressure of 1000 hPa since the environmental pressure surrounding the storm was significantly higher than normal. Furthermore, if a storm is smaller and more compact, the difference in pressure from the environment to the storm center is quite large over a small distance, and you can get resultant strong wind from this sharp contrast.

In Cristobal's case the circulation is broad, and core convection is currently lackluster with the radius of maximum wind extending quite far from the center. Recon aircraft over the next couple hours should give us a better idea as to the current storm structure of Cristobal. However, a pressure of 992 mb wouldn't likely be enough to get a sharp enough pressure difference to attain winds that high for a more broad cyclone.

I would expect modest intensification over the next couple of days before landfall along the Louisiana coast, but I would be surprised at this point if Cristobal attained hurricane strength.

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS a smidgen further west at landfall.

[Steve]

GFS 993mb at 54 goes in around Cocodrie. The fish won't be happy about it, but they can swim somewhere else for a while. Looks like a tight little system.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=54

96 hour rainfall map has a little more than the last couple runs but mostly less than 4" except in a band running from Hancock County, MS to St. Tammany Parish, LA and another band across the Big Bend (Perry to like Baker County)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=96

[Steve]

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

Consensus is Grand Isle to Cocodrie likely sometime Sunday afternoon or evening. Hopefully it's just a fun ride for the next 3 days with minimal impacts to most people. If it had gone a little more west, I'd worry about southern Terrebonne Parish which has a ton of homes which are now low-lying due to coastal erosion, thousands of which flooded when Ike passed by 100 miles to the South. All it takes is a couple feet of tide to ruin people's homes and belongings down there. So maybe if it does come in east of Vermilion Bay, it won't end up being a 9 figure storm.

Steve, we're not too worried as most of Southern Terrebonne has flood gates and leeves. The worry will be the heavy rain as our pumps can only hold up 3" of rain per hour. I am from lower Montegut. The last time my childhood home has flooded was during Rita 2005. I currently live in dulac. In dulac , we just got new locks. it has helped a lot with Spring flooding. But during ike it flooded in our dulac home for the 1st time but my montegut house did not flood other than the yard. So a little worried on where all the water will go now that we are mostly secured with locks and leeves. Most of the homes here are elevated.

My older kids are staying home at my mom's in Montegut. They are 8ft up. Most ppl down the bayou stay home for TS and Cat1. I got hotel booked in Thibodaux for my mom and 2 young children. I'll try to keep guys inform as to what is going on down there.

Hey Montegut. Good to see you again also. Yeah it was weird how Ike and Rita differed in who got flooded. We were in central Lafourche (Lockport/Valentine) for Gustav and Ike and only had some wind/tornado issues in the immediate area. That was 12 years ago and I know they have put up a buttload of locks and levees below the intracoastal since then. Stay safe if y’all get some of the core and keep us posted.