ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Wow

Very impressive stays over land for several days, then bang barely at the coast and back to TS.

[NDG]

Looks like the CoC just passed very close to Merida, winds light now NNW, pressure down 1001mb. Is chasing the convection to the north.

METAR for: MMMD (Merida Intl, --, MX)
Text: MMMD 051744Z 34005KT 4SM -RA BKN006 OVC070 25/24 A2958 RMK SLP027 57014 992 60055 8/72/
Temperature: 25.0°C ( 77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C ( 75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.58 inches Hg (1001.8 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1002.7 mb]
Winds: from the NNW (340 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 knots; 2.6 m/s)
Visibility: 4 sm ( 6 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 600 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 7000 feet AGL
Weather: -RA (light rain)

[Aric Dunn]

very close to being back over water. hour or less. looks like some convection is beginning to build with the circ.. now the fun begins..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I fear that if the CoC gets a big ramp in convection, this storm could take off. Especially now, much of the convection in quadrants away from the center seem to be waning, meaning if the CoC gets a burst of convection, it will help the storm become much better organized.

Catching up in the thread, i noticed many posts with numerous areas of circulation, which would inhibit the growth of the storm. Not seeing too much of that at the moment.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like Cristobal is almost right on the coast of the Yucatan as of 1:40pm central.

[tailgater]

I’ll be surprised if it starts strengthening much right away, its ingesting lots of dry air and shear. Still could be a 45 or 50mph storm before recon gets out there.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 20.8°N 89.7°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 150 NM

[MississippiWx]

18z Best Track:

Location: 20.8°N 89.7°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 150 NM

https://i.imgur.com/88ZrPc4.png

NHC keeps marking a low pressure area that doesn’t match up with surface wind observations. Odd, but they are the experts. I’m ready for a recon fix.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track:

Location: 20.8°N 89.7°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1007 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 150 NM

https://i.imgur.com/88ZrPc4.png

NHC keeps marking a low pressure area that doesn’t match up with surface wind observations. Odd, but they are the experts. I’m ready for a recon fix.

it is out of continuity for the models I suppose..

[GCANE]

ASCAT showing 35 knt surface winds SW of Cozumel

[psyclone]

It's probably fair to say that the broad, slack circulation that was an advantage over land will now be a hindrance over water WRT strengthening. such a configuration provides both a solid foundation and a somewhat lower ceiling. Nevertheless our system is tenacious and resilient

[Aric Dunn]

At this rate it will be at the 7am position like 12 hours early and to the east. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is now likely completely offshore..

Merida winds have turned WNW
Mérida International Airport

Mérida, Mexico

latitude: 20-56N, longitude: 089-39W, elevation: 10 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 19 minutes ago, at 18:51 UTC
Wind 5 kt from the West/Northwest
Temperature 26°C
Humidity 89%
Pressure 1001 hPa
Visibility: 8.0 km
Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft
Overcast at a height of 7000 ft

[NDG]

Clearly the circulation was a bit elongated to the NE when it was south of Merida still inland 4 hours ago, the reason why they were reporting NNE winds before passing right over them.

[drezee]

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=22&lon=-89&zoom=2&width=1000&height=1000&quality=100&type=Animation&numframes=40

Great visible

[Dean4Storms]

Am I seeing that right? They have the Low Level Center actually just west of Merida? Their wind obs made the case that the Low passed to their east.

[Steve]

Good Afternoon everyone

Not that we need it but how much rain if any can we expect here in south Florida

QPF 12Z

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591385073

[Aric Dunn]

Am I seeing that right? They have the Low Level Center actually just west of Merida? Their wind obs made the case that the Low passed to their east.

yep best track is not quite the best at the moment.. circ is NE offshore of Merida.. lol

[NDG]

Am I seeing that right? They have the Low Level Center actually just west of Merida? Their wind obs made the case that the Low passed to their east.

yep best track is not quite the best at the moment.. circ is NE offshore of Merida.. lol

Aric, where do you have Cristobal making landfall?

[NDG]

Circ is now likely completely offshore..

Merida winds have turned WNW
Mérida International Airport

Mérida, Mexico

latitude: 20-56N, longitude: 089-39W, elevation: 10 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 19 minutes ago, at 18:51 UTC
Wind 5 kt from the West/Northwest
Temperature 26°C
Humidity 89%
Pressure 1001 hPa
Visibility: 8.0 km
Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft
Overcast at a height of 7000 ft



https://i.ibb.co/CVB0WgP/Capture.png

Now, that's much better than where you were estimating it to be a few hours ago