ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Circ is now likely completely offshore..

Merida winds have turned WNW
Mérida International Airport

Mérida, Mexico

latitude: 20-56N, longitude: 089-39W, elevation: 10 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 19 minutes ago, at 18:51 UTC
Wind 5 kt from the West/Northwest
Temperature 26°C
Humidity 89%
Pressure 1001 hPa
Visibility: 8.0 km
Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft
Overcast at a height of 7000 ft



https://i.ibb.co/CVB0WgP/Capture.png

Now, that's much better than where you were estimating it to be a few hours ago

it is still the same area. just Due north from earlier. lol

and too early to tell where landfall will be..

likely going to be a lot of wobbles..

[SunnyThoughts]

TS watches up as far east as Ala/ Fla line so they have it pretty well covered lol I guess because the worst of the weather will probably be on the east side of circulation at landfall, and before landfall.

[PTrackerLA]

Circ is now likely completely offshore..

Merida winds have turned WNW
Mérida International Airport

Mérida, Mexico

latitude: 20-56N, longitude: 089-39W, elevation: 10 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 19 minutes ago, at 18:51 UTC
Wind 5 kt from the West/Northwest
Temperature 26°C
Humidity 89%
Pressure 1001 hPa
Visibility: 8.0 km
Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft
Overcast at a height of 7000 ft



https://i.ibb.co/CVB0WgP/Capture.png

Now, that's much better than where you were estimating it to be a few hours ago

it is still the same area. just Due north from earlier. lol

and too early to tell where landfall will be..

likely going to be a lot of wobbles..

Probably another 24 hours before you can lock in the final landfall, will be watching closely from Lafayette.

[NDG]

Circ is now likely completely offshore..

Merida winds have turned WNW
Mérida International Airport

Mérida, Mexico

latitude: 20-56N, longitude: 089-39W, elevation: 10 m
Current weather observation
The report was made 19 minutes ago, at 18:51 UTC
Wind 5 kt from the West/Northwest
Temperature 26°C
Humidity 89%
Pressure 1001 hPa
Visibility: 8.0 km
Broken clouds at a height of 600 ft
Overcast at a height of 7000 ft



https://i.ibb.co/CVB0WgP/Capture.png

Now, that's much better than where you were estimating it to be a few hours ago

it is still the same area. just Due north from earlier. lol

and too early to tell where landfall will be..

likely going to be a lot of wobbles..

Well, now where you have it positioned I do agree with, maybe 5 miles to far east

[MississippiWx]

On visible, this is a beautiful storm for the first week of June. Now that the center is over water, it will be interesting to see if we can get any big blowups of convection over the Center. Don’t believe shear is going to be an issue.

[NDG]

[bella_may]

Looks like it’s getting stronger. I wouldn’t say a 75 mph hurricane is out of the woods yet but I’m no professional

[robbielyn]

https://i.imgur.com/T4a8DiL.gif

Look at that dry air chasing Cristobal it's trying to swoon right in.

[psyclone]

the storm is doing a good job of pushing back on the dry air to the west. you can see the dry air wrapping on the south side. we're going to get that cinnamon roll look on water vapor over time. it would not be a shock to see a firehose band well to the east and plenty of weather with the system itself...and some sort of a moat in between as that dry air wraps around..

[tarheelprogrammer]

https://i.imgur.com/T4a8DiL.gif

Gulp, like pacman eating dry air. Another bites the dust. Good thing that is there, or it could be much worse.

[Steve]

https://i.imgur.com/T4a8DiL.gif

Upper levels too. You can see the trough going by to the north as well
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[aspen]

On visible, this is a beautiful storm for the first week of June. Now that the center is over water, it will be interesting to see if we can get any big blowups of convection over the Center. Don’t believe shear is going to be an issue.

Dry air is likely going to be a far bigger issue for Cristobal. If it can’t mix some out, it could be stuck below 50 kt.

[aspen]

I think the center is fully over water now. Once diurnal max hits, we could see some more convective bursts and possibly additional strengthening.

[NDG]

https://i.imgur.com/T4a8DiL.gif

Look at that dry air chasing Cristobal it's trying to swoon right in.

But at the same time the dry air is getting out of the way to its north with the UL winds changing and becoming divergent, lifting moisture up into the atmosphere.
As long as it travels parallel to the southerly shear it shouldn't be too much of a problem. Its problem is its broad CoC, it needs to tighten up some for it to really intensify.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/T4a8DiL.gif

Look at that dry air chasing Cristobal it's trying to swoon right in.

But at the same time the dry air is getting out of the way to its north with the UL winds changing and becoming divergent, lifting moisture up into the atmosphere.
As long as it travels parallel to the southerly shear it shouldn't be too much of a problem. Its problem is its broad CoC, it needs to tighten up some for it to really intensify.

Tonight and later tomorrow could see bursts of convection during diurnal max, especially tomorrow when Cristobal moves across a pocket of higher OHC. These will be the best opportunities for it to tighten up some more.

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane departs.

[NDG]

We'll see what the AF recon finds in about 3 hours.

[MGC]

Yup, lots of dry air has infiltrated Cristobal's core. Has a couple of days to get better organized before Louisiana landfall. I'm interested in the extent of its wind field. Just got back from the beach, beautiful day....MGC

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon Steve

Great loop you can see the dry air chains it, but it seems to get cut off by land interaction. Once the storm is totally over water, I think it can work the dry air out.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

My apologies that was not Steve posting think it was NDG.