ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Probably another 24 hours before you can lock in the final landfall, will be watching closely from Lafayette.

Just got home. Started today at 3:45am again. Last call was with Petroleum Helicopters (PHI) over there at the LFT airport. Since it looks like Lafayette will be west of the center/track, you'll probably see max winds 25-35 mph. Some gusts to 40-45 possible, of course. Most of the rain will fall east of the track, too. This storm may not have much of a left side.

[Nimbus]

Fairly strong squall line moving up through Florida to the east which is probably due to Cristobal unwinding while he was over land. Unless we see some heavy convection over a low level center we shouldn't worry too much about a hurricane. Watching to see what the models do with the dry air, still think Mississippi might see some tropical storm force winds on the strong side of the storm if it moves quickly north. Only flooding problems would be if it stalls just offshore which is looking less likely.

[3090]

We'll see what the AF recon finds in about 3 hours.

Guessing 50kts and 998 pressure. I think it makes landfall maxed out at 65kts. but not a ton of rain. Lots but not flooding type of rain.

[3090]

Fairly strong squall line moving up through Florida to the east which is probably due to Cristobal unwinding while he was over land. Unless we see some heavy convection over a low level center we shouldn't worry too much about a hurricane. Watching to see what the models do with the dry air, still think Mississippi might see some tropical storm force winds on the strong side of the storm if it moves quickly north. Only flooding problems would be if it stalls just offshore which is looking less likely.

It is actually picking up speed so the rain probably will not be all that bad. It could be in some spots but not so widespread. And the winds extend out in a 150 mile radius. A lot of people will see TS force winds.

[Steve]

First round of 18z runs are in with NAM12k still wanting to landfall in SWLA but looking better than it has in a few days. It doesn't landfall for 63 hours so roughly 4am Monday morning. This is not a tropical model and though it sometimes outperforms, it's often way off in the tropics and subtropics.


NAM3km makes a hard left at the LA Coast. It's still running.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=55

[shiny-pebble]

Sorry if this is a silly question, but is it pulling in moisture from the Pacific??? Almost looks like its trying to on satellite

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[Miami Storm Tracker]

I ask a couple of times earlier
Any idea of how much if any rain could be seen in here in South Florida.

[3090]

Probably another 24 hours before you can lock in the final landfall, will be watching closely from Lafayette.

Just got home. Started today at 3:45am again. Last call was with Petroleum Helicopters (PHI) over there at the LFT airport. Since it looks like Lafayette will be west of the center/track, you'll probably see max winds 25-35 mph. Some gusts to 40-45 possible, of course. Most of the rain will fall east of the track, too. This storm may not have much of a left side.

With an increase in forward speed it would have more of an impact on where it makes landfall and to the east whereas compared to the left side of the storm the increased speed will lessen the impact of whatever TS force winds exist.

[3090]

First round of 18z runs are in with NAM12k still wanting to landfall in SWLA but looking better than it has in a few days. It doesn't landfall for 63 hours so roughly 4am Monday morning. This is not a tropical model and though it sometimes outperforms, it's often way off in the tropics and subtropics.
https://i.imgur.com/vkp0Ucp.jpg

NAM3km makes a hard left at the LA Coast. It's still running.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=55

18z runs are not all that when it comes to forecast paths from what I have come to understand. But hey...and the NAM no less.

[bella_may]

Tropical storm warnings issued now

[3090]

I ask a couple of times earlier
Any idea of how much if any rain could be seen in here in South Florida.

Who knows....too far away.

[Steve]

First round of 18z runs are in with NAM12k still wanting to landfall in SWLA but looking better than it has in a few days. It doesn't landfall for 63 hours so roughly 4am Monday morning. This is not a tropical model and though it sometimes outperforms, it's often way off in the tropics and subtropics.
https://i.imgur.com/vkp0Ucp.jpg

NAM3km makes a hard left at the LA Coast. It's still running.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=55

18z runs are not all that when it comes to forecast paths from what I have come to understand. But hey...and the NAM no less.

Haha. Wrong thread. It's the only game in town in the 3 o'clock hour waiting for the NHC update. That's probably out now.

[Steve]

I ask a couple of times earlier
Any idea of how much if any rain could be seen in here in South Florida.

Catch GGANE when he's on, but I think it had a channel to the Pacific at one point and another one down to the Western Caribbean. I don't know about now, but if you run a larger ATL-EPAC water vapor, you can probably tell (that's for the guy you were quoting).

I actually answered your question, but you must have missed it. I went with the QPF and also via NHC which may be slightly underdone in South Florida, but it remains to be seen.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1591391350

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... f#contents

[northjaxpro]

https://i.imgur.com/T4a8DiL.gif

Look at that dry air chasing Cristobal it's trying to swoon right in.

Yeah, this will keep Cristobal.in check and likely keep him from attaining hurricane status.

Still a decent looking June cyclone!

[Aric Dunn]

loops loops and more loops..

[Ivanhater]

Wow, tropical storm warning issued all the way over to the Okaloosa/walton county line in NW Florida

[Steve]

Wow, tropical storm warning issued all the way over to the Okaloosa/walton county line in NW Florida

Expected IMHO. I was surprised they didn't include y'all in the initial TS watch.

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, tropical storm warning issued all the way over to the Okaloosa/walton county line in NW Florida

Expected IMHO. I was surprised they didn't include y'all in the initial TS watch.

and if for some reason this is any slower that right turn which happens over land would happen over water..

[tropicwatch]

I ask a couple of times earlier
Any idea of how much if any rain could be seen in here in South Florida.

Who knows....too far away.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1559649060

[gfsperpendicular]

The NHC's wind history graphic shows how much this storm has broadened while over land.